Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[lord gnome] 05/9/2021 16:54

Can I safely assume that you are not invested here fenners66?

[fenners66] 05/9/2021 14:55

From the BBC

"More than 8,700 chain stores closed in British High Streets, shopping centres and retail parks in the first six months of this year, research suggests.

That is an average of nearly 50 outlets a day as the impact of the pandemic and changing shopping habits continue to hit many towns and city centres. "

I guess those potentially empty 8,700 stores will also have no bearing on NRR, or on rents around them.....

Nearby I have seen multiple empty shops , now with signs in the windows, "Substantial Rent Reductions - To Let "

There is only one way for retail rents to travel , imo.

[fenners66] 28/8/2021 10:53

From the DM

"Britain's High Street has lost 83 per cent of department stores since the collapse of BHS in 2016.

Just 79 of the main shops remain open compared to 467 five years ago, new data shows"

"It means 388 has closed, including 237 left empty and 52 with plans to change it into another business."


Of course as those on here have said , loss of destination shops and a glut of available property , will have no impact whatsoever on NRR........

[bondholder] 27/8/2021 17:42

Exactly right.

[bondholder] 27/8/2021 17:41

FD/CFO. Frankly it's a semantic distinction. He has taken over from previous CFO Mark Davies who was on 600k+ package. If the prospects were good why on earth stop at 50k shareholding?

[mindthestash] 27/8/2021 16:43

It is the CFO but previously was the FD

why do they need a CFO and an FD
same reason the need 3 brokers - they dont know what they are doing

they've also appointed an insider who is part of the crew that turned £3 a share into now 79p. another red flag

Another nugget you might like to chew on
the capital markets day where they will explain their strategy and delivery - they've been forced into this because their share price in heading south. As usual every time they have anything to say the price falls.

"NewRiver will be hosting a virtual Capital Markets Event at 10:00 BST on 30 September 2021 focusing on our retail strategy going forward."

See below from the press release
"while our active approach to asset management and inbuilt 2.5 million sq ft development pipeline provide further opportunities to extract value from our portfolio."

they think this is good news?

they have decided to expand the current 8m sq ft portfolio (in press release) by another 2.5m = a 31% increase in shopping real estate and high density city centre residential over the next few years.

At £300/ capital cost per sq ft (my guess) it will cost them £750m. That will blow the balance sheet to bits unless asset prices for shops and flats skyrocket -

sound like a good bet anyone?

will somebody please buy this or replace the chair and CEO

[bdbd11] 27/8/2021 15:36

Bondholder, you need to get your fact's right. Will Hobman is not the new finance director, he held that position for the last 2 years. He is the new CFO. He has been with NRR for 5 years. He does not have to buy any shares. IMO Director buying for £10k or less can be a red flag, at £50k it is not.

[bondholder] 27/8/2021 14:01

I've got to disagree with you on this. As the new finance director he has to buy some shares. Based on what the last finance guy was earning around 600k plus I think that to spend 50k on shares is about the absolute minimum. If anything this is a large red flag. I know some people will always make excuses and say well maybe he's got a big mortgage or whatever but at the end of the day actions speak louder than words.

[dhoult12] 27/8/2021 12:40

Odd as anything to have 3 brokers for a company this size. That's three (typically) being paid a retainer for starters,

[nickrl] 27/8/2021 11:32

Well its not helped the sp!

[speedsgh] 27/8/2021 11:04

Shore Capital added as joint corporate broker alongside existing brokers Jefferies & Liberum. Not sure if we should read anything into this?

Appointment of Joint Corporate Broker -

[bdbd11] 25/8/2021 09:24

The CFO has spent £50k on shares at this level. If anyone knows it's value, you would imagine he would. A good sign.

[dhoult12] 22/8/2021 07:12

Boystown, the net figure refers to proceeds less professional fees. They bought the assets of Hawthorne, associated debt left with top co aka NRR.
Hence the relatively huge number compared to market cap.
Discount for pubs sold was much lower than the market has priced for the rest

[mindthestash] 21/8/2021 12:59

agree there's money to be made (if it was in good hands).

[boystown] 21/8/2021 12:39

mindthestash - no I just meant that the net value of £216m from Hawthorne was massive in relation to the mkt cap of £253m - but I didn't realise it was old news.

Nevertheless, cash / equivalents now around £392m vs. total debt of £717m, and an overall NTAV discount of 44% - looks like good value to me? Of course, it all depends on whether their strategy of chav retail has legs!

[mindthestash] 21/8/2021 10:38

Hello Boystown - i think you meant discount?

NRR are leading the REIT pack in something - yes it is rather large discount to NAV

BREI is trading at a 27% discount - they have 36% of the portfolio value in offices and retail and 64% in industrial distribution and retail warehouse -the latter values and rents look pretty solid to me going forward and its the offices and standard retail which look to be marked down in the share price considerably - 50% i'd say.

NRR with exposure to offices and shopping centres (incl redevelopment schemes which might well just be holes in he ground) not surprising they are 40-50% discount. Their next update is not till november 1/2 year results and they dont tend to disclose much in between. just as well cos as soon as they say anything the share price tends to go down.

[boystown] 20/8/2021 15:51

That's a heck of a disposal in relation to the mkt cap?

[hugepants] 18/8/2021 11:45

Already hold rather a lot of epic (and brei)

[mindthestash] 18/8/2021 11:43

You might want to take a look at AEW and EPIC if you have not already. Thats how to run a REIT.

[hugepants] 18/8/2021 11:35

Cheers. Yes not clear how this will pan out. However discount to nav is sizable and even a 6p divi gives 7.3% yield at this price so I've started buying some.

[mindthestash] 18/8/2021 11:19

thanks HP
I was thinking it was pretty much a zero sum game. pubs were in the books at circa 250m and they got 220m; so yes a small loss. my guess is NAV is still about 150. They say they have another 70m in disposals lined up. Godwilling some of these will be ahead of recent NAV

My reading of 2019 accs is that they got about 12p UFFO from non-pub portfolio. So they should get at least 8-10p UFFO this time round? - would mean a divi of 6-8p under new policy but I'm wondering if they are simply short of cash to build out the town centre retail/resi punt which could turn out to be really bad news if the resi market turns on even small increases in base rates. Itll take years in planning/construction......

THere could be a short term upside if the 2nd divi comes in at 3p plus? but longer term i'm not confident in this board.

[hugepants] 18/8/2021 10:48

After the disposal of the Pubs business does NAV reduce to about 130p now? They appear to have made a book loss of £25M on the disposal.

[janekane] 12/8/2021 08:19

This is cheap and the debt loaders know it
This will be taken out into private hands who will load it to the roofs with debt
Then the liquidators will have to sort it out and the moneymen walk with millions in the pocket books

[mindthestash] 09/8/2021 17:46

I agree that there more in the div - but under this management?

My suspicion is that lenders don’t want to see more of their cash sunk into the this resi/shopping punt and NRR needs more money to build these out?

[nickrl] 09/8/2021 17:15

There last report and accounts stated that three retail parks were classified as held for sale probably to Bravo but no specific announcement although they do have a habit of just giving headlines on disposals. So my take is they still want cash for these development schemes.

That said its getting down to my threshold for interest but the circular they notified would be issued hasn't materialised on the website. In it i was expecting a bit more detail on NRR post Hawthorn to help me undertake an assessment as i reckon there is a bit more than 6p dividend here but who knows.

Edit: OK found them under the AGM & General Meetings tab doesn't give any useful info on balance sheet and restated accounts post Hawthorn sale!