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NRR Newriver Reit Plc

-0.40 (-0.56%)
13 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Newriver Reit Plc LSE:NRR London Ordinary Share GB00BD7XPJ64 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.40 -0.56% 71.40 71.20 71.70 72.50 71.30 71.50 689,472 16:35:01
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Real Estate Investment Trust 73.6M -16.8M -0.0537 -13.33 223.82M
Newriver Reit Plc is listed in the Real Estate Investment Trust sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker NRR. The last closing price for Newriver Reit was 71.80p. Over the last year, Newriver Reit shares have traded in a share price range of 67.70p to 92.00p.

Newriver Reit currently has 312,603,487 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Newriver Reit is £223.82 million. Newriver Reit has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -13.33.

Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3901 to 3922 of 4350 messages
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mindthestash - no I just meant that the net value of £216m from Hawthorne was massive in relation to the mkt cap of £253m - but I didn't realise it was old news.

Nevertheless, cash / equivalents now around £392m vs. total debt of £717m, and an overall NTAV discount of 44% - looks like good value to me? Of course, it all depends on whether their strategy of chav retail has legs!

Hello Boystown - i think you meant discount?

NRR are leading the REIT pack in something - yes it is rather large discount to NAV

BREI is trading at a 27% discount - they have 36% of the portfolio value in offices and retail and 64% in industrial distribution and retail warehouse -the latter values and rents look pretty solid to me going forward and its the offices and standard retail which look to be marked down in the share price considerably - 50% i'd say.

NRR with exposure to offices and shopping centres (incl redevelopment schemes which might well just be holes in he ground) not surprising they are 40-50% discount. Their next update is not till november 1/2 year results and they dont tend to disclose much in between. just as well cos as soon as they say anything the share price tends to go down.

That's a heck of a disposal in relation to the mkt cap?
Already hold rather a lot of epic (and brei)
You might want to take a look at AEW and EPIC if you have not already. Thats how to run a REIT.
Cheers. Yes not clear how this will pan out. However discount to nav is sizable and even a 6p divi gives 7.3% yield at this price so I've started buying some.
thanks HP
I was thinking it was pretty much a zero sum game. pubs were in the books at circa 250m and they got 220m; so yes a small loss. my guess is NAV is still about 150. They say they have another 70m in disposals lined up. Godwilling some of these will be ahead of recent NAV

My reading of 2019 accs is that they got about 12p UFFO from non-pub portfolio. So they should get at least 8-10p UFFO this time round? - would mean a divi of 6-8p under new policy but I'm wondering if they are simply short of cash to build out the town centre retail/resi punt which could turn out to be really bad news if the resi market turns on even small increases in base rates. Itll take years in planning/construction......

THere could be a short term upside if the 2nd divi comes in at 3p plus? but longer term i'm not confident in this board.

After the disposal of the Pubs business does NAV reduce to about 130p now? They appear to have made a book loss of £25M on the disposal.
This is cheap and the debt loaders know it
This will be taken out into private hands who will load it to the roofs with debt
Then the liquidators will have to sort it out and the moneymen walk with millions in the pocket books

I agree that there more in the div - but under this management?

My suspicion is that lenders don’t want to see more of their cash sunk into the this resi/shopping punt and NRR needs more money to build these out?

There last report and accounts stated that three retail parks were classified as held for sale probably to Bravo but no specific announcement although they do have a habit of just giving headlines on disposals. So my take is they still want cash for these development schemes.

That said its getting down to my threshold for interest but the circular they notified would be issued hasn't materialised on the website. In it i was expecting a bit more detail on NRR post Hawthorn to help me undertake an assessment as i reckon there is a bit more than 6p dividend here but who knows.

Edit: OK found them under the AGM & General Meetings tab doesn't give any useful info on balance sheet and restated accounts post Hawthorn sale!

This may be of interest given NRR's concentration on retail parks. The two extracts are from an RNS this morning.

LondonMetric Property Plc ("LondonMetric") announces that it has sold its retail park in Kirkstall, Leeds, for £25.2 million, to a UK institutional investor......

Andrew Jones, Chief Executive of LondonMetric, commented:

"This is a strong trading retail park and its sale is in line with our strategy to divest our last few remaining multi let retail parks. We have seen an uptick in investor interest for well let and located retail parks which is reflected in the sale price achieved.

So, the question arises are NRR's properties "well let and located" to secure that "investor interest"?

OK, it should be noted that Londonmetric is gradually divesting its retail parks to increase its emphasis on logistics parks, but the key take away from this announcement so far as NRR is concerned is the general level and durability of that "investor interest".

"it seems they’re content to write off their customers money and vote with their feet quietly out the back door."

As long as all the insti's are doing much the same they can all hide in the crowd and point to the idea that they are performing at the who cares....

I have been a stuck record here (since years before covid) , saying that bricks and mortar retail was in decline and there has to be a knock on effect to all retail. Why pay more for your store if next door is empty , and yes I know empty units at quality out of town with free parking easy access etc.

Still expect declining rents and valuations...

Hello All -interesting discussion
New River Reit
Is this a takeover target as flagged in the telegraph a couple of weeks ago?
My take on this is that the business without the pubs is capable of generating UFFO of circa 12p per share if it were to maintain a 2019 profile. However rents and occupancy are depressed then something like 10p would be a good result. So a Divi of 8p is possible if this business were in the right hands. That’s my problem with this stock. I bought at 80p as a recovery bet without much homework (will I ever learn) but the more I hear and read from this board the more my confidence goes. The strategy isn’t coherent - its more like ‘seems like a good idea’– still buying pubs in late 2020 and shotgun them all in 2021 for the just under the price of the average 3 bed semi next door (zoopla) after having swallowed the lockdown pain
Their investment profile going forward is mostly development of high density residential built around shopping centres. So their latest idea is to tie our capital up for years in planning and development then hit the residential market when interest rates are heading up and private buy to let market in freefall over green energy specs.
There is no meaningful update on development activity and returns once the initial flag-waving announcement of promises.
This board have turned £3 into £2 before covid. I am pretty sure they’ll turn 80p into 40p post covid. It’s a shame because in the right hands it could wring out 10p divi a year and be worth £1.20 plus.
My suspicion is that lenders don’t want to see more of their cash sunk into the this resi/shopping punt and NRR needs more money to build these out?
The shareholding market cap is a mere £250m but the book value of the property assets is just under £1,000m with valuations at 31st march (borrowings will diminish on sale of pubs) -Is there any chance someone will buy this?
You would expect the institutional shareholders to have had a word and forced the changes at the board but if the share price is anything to go by it seems they’re content to write off their customers money and vote with their feet quietly out the back door.
Thoughts on takeovers or breakup sale of the rest of the assets?

Hi all,

Long term holder and previously quite bullish on nrr. For what it’s worth, after i’ve looked through the report, I’ve sold my holding.

Going through the figures, I struggle to see how they make more than 15-20 mill next year and a cap of 20-25 the year after.

7 million of their profit this year was from one off insurance or covid payouts.

They have to sell more shopping centres to keep the ltv down, as property valuations inevitably slide further which will lower rental income. Although existing rental collection and car park fees will bounce back a little the first quarter figures for rental collection appear similar to last year, more shops will go to the wall. Rents in general are falling in the sector with the balance of power going to the retailers.

So in 2021:2022 if they make an extra 4 mill car parking, 3 mill rental collection from existing clients, 1 mill from less cvs, minus the 3 mill overall drop in rents(both through reduced income per square metre and less centres) you are looking at approx 55 mill max revenue imo, if they cut admin costs to 16 mill (probs punchy) and finance to 19 mill… you are still looking at 20 mill profit max. Between 305 mill shares and only paying 80% of div that’s about 5p div split between 2 payments.

This may rise to 6p the year after perhaps, as rental collection stabilises.

In terms of future prospects, their whole business model is based on properties going up in value and acquiring more through leverage. At the moment they are forced sellers instead.

The lockdown periods I assume will only have pushed more people towards the trend of online home delivery for shopping. Plus I don’t know if you’ve been to any of these shopping centres, but they’re not in desirable locations and the alternate use is not worth much imo. No one wants to live in these places and offices - forget it. The alternate use was only for their pub estate and maybe their few out of town retail parks.

I think they have been well managed and clearly the board is trying it’s best in a really rough time period. You look at other reits like intu and hammerson and I think clearly nrr have done relatively well.

However ultimately they are caught in a tough spot, in a declining industry, with declining rents and valuations. I struggle to see how that turns around and would expect the share price to languish between 50-80p over the next couple of years all be it with perhaps 10p of dividends if the general market continues as is. They won’t benefit much from a stronger recovery as they don’t sell luxury goods - purely staples.

And in another downturn, well good luck - generic risk of a broader market crash, another covid variant developing that is vaccine resistant or inflation, when the rents are fixed for years with no pricing power.

I’m still relatively inexperienced as an investor and this was one of my biggest early holdings. I do wish any holders good luck and the people who run the company seem like good people, so I hope they prove me wrong. Maybe they can cut more costs or make some alternate use for managing other estates. Although from a purely brutal mr market perspective, with my tbh pretty green analysis, I struggle to see how this will go great in the next couple of years.

Apologies for the length and for rambling on, I’m a little hungover after a few too many last night!

No sign of the circular on the NRR investors website or have a missed it somewhere else?
I posted that 216m on here yesterday .

Like I said then , the only figure I was interested in, the only figure they did not want to tell , was what was the loss on sale, so I read all the way to the end of the RNS.

I was actually trying to help you guys....

This from some of the most desirable assets they have with apparently huge interest from buyers. Imagine when they try and shift the shopping centres...
216 million net proceeds from the sale of Hawthorn pubs business.
Spotted there were notes after the RNS yesterday which say forecast proceeds from Hawthorn are 216m. Also confirms valuation of Hawthorn as 249m and it was 674 pubs nothing about C stores. 100m of proceeds will be used to eliminate the RCF which I see from AGM statement released to day has already been reduced by using some of the cash.

This implies they will hold on to remainder of proceeds and leave other loans in place as I suspect they will have penalty payments for early redemption so maybe interest won't be down as much.

Still lets see if the circular tomorrow provides anymore detail about what the "new" NRR income and balance sheet looks like

"Our GBP1.0 billion portfolio covers 9 million sq ft and comprises 33 community shopping centres, 19 conveniently located retail parks and 674 community pubs. We hand-picked our assets..."

So that they could lose a fortune on the pubs ... ?

Despite the "presentation" they have only collected 82% of first quarter rents.

So 18% missing from the cash flow at least 3 months later.

March only had a 96% occupancy so they really have collections of 78% of the estate for the first qtr.

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