Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 15:22

And blue.....

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 15:13

Dudley perhaps you should worry about your own investment being "red" rather than be concerned with this being "flat"?

[dudleym1975] 10/10/2017 14:20

And flat.....

[jamie414] 10/10/2017 10:50

Do you have Sandersons number for us then dudley? lol

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 10:23

Try and digest this.So - let's assume that NCCL have the same economics on this new deal that the board have mooted in prior RNS, as they did with SEP. SEP were effectively paying $25m for project back costs to get the project to financial close and then $35m on top of that at financial close. They were providing all debt. The project if approx $500m capex cost to be funded with a mix of debt:equity. 70:30. In reality i think this will end up around 75:25 given how elements of the EPC can fluctuate between 70-85% debt financing. So,$412m debt, $138m equity. So let's assume - that the debt element is sorted by the partner and 60% of the equity of the project in line with the SEP deal. That leaves NCCL with 40% of the $138m to find, which is $55m. So - if we were to get $35m as per the SEP deal on this new deal, we would have 25% of the project. 28% of $130m EBITDA per annum with the risk being they can't raise 500k or whatever the small number is to get them to financial close. What's the market cap on that basis? Way north of here surely. I am not selling too early, the fundamentals would warrant a massive rerate.

[dudleym1975] 10/10/2017 09:33

Cash is running low very lowVery very low

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 09:08

Some good discussion over at LSE at the moment...

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 09:07

Dudley you really are a wally. Bless.

[dudleym1975] 10/10/2017 09:03

Ncondezi Seeks Equity Raise As Dwindling Cash To Run Out Within Weeks (ALLISS)Not my headline and already 2 weeks doneTick tock

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 08:49

Nice to see more interest again today ahead of news - Friday RNS anyone?

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 08:47

Again Dudley why not go and try to dig up the "imminent" licences over at KIBO rather than wasting you're time trolling the NCCL boards.

[dudleym1975] 10/10/2017 08:22

Better off betting red or black same gamble

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 10/10/2017 07:11

@emergocharts #NCCL Ok, well the double bottom on my monthly chart targets c21.6, 23.9 and 27.5p. That stochastic is looking nice too....

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 09/10/2017 17:55

it's actually better than he's put, should be $375m debt & $125m equity from those figures.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 09/10/2017 12:59

From LSE againPrice: 5.38BGibbons 36 postspotentialSo - let's assume that NCCL have the same economics on this new deal that the board have mooted in prior RNS, as they did with SEP. SEP were effectively paying $25m for project back costs to get the project to financial close and then $35m on top of that at financial close. They were providing all debt. The project if approx $500m capex cost to be funded with a mix of debt:equity. 70:30. In reality i think this will end up around 75:25 given how elements of the EPC can fluctuate between 70-85% debt financing. So,$412m debt, $138m equity. So let's assume - that the debt element is sorted by the partner and 60% of the equity of the project in line with the SEP deal. That leaves NCCL with 40% of the $138m to find, which is $55m. So - if we were to get $35m as per the SEP deal on this new deal, we would have 25% of the project. 28% of $130m EBITDA per annum with the risk being they can't raise 500k or whatever the small number is to get them to financial close. What's the market cap on that basis? Way north of here surely. I am not selling too early, the fundamentals would warrant a massive rerate.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 08/10/2017 12:44

Good post on LSE"Connectivity and projectThe beauty of Moz (despite some much heralded problems) is that a) it already exports power b) it is a widely connected and electrified country c) but there is still latent and growing demand and d) it is investor friendly as they have done it all before. Beauty of this project is a) it is situated in a tea of abundant coal supply b) it is highly scalable and in all likelihood should grow from 300MW c) v close to South Africa for export and for connectivity to wider grid d) stands out as really the only project getting to financial close in 2018 e) will benefit from proximity to SA for the supply of workers who are suffering from undercapacity issues f) investors will benefit from all the above through the fantastic economics of the project. Plenty to be happy about just need to sign up a partner and find a small working capital gap filler. And - should be soon given prior RNS."

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 08/10/2017 12:27

Eskom is a South African electricity public utility, established in 1923 as the Electricity Supply Commission (ESC) by the government of the Union of South Africa.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 08/10/2017 12:25

World Bank also announced $150m investment into Mozambique, specifically EDM and the power infrastructure so there's certainly eyes on this from several areas.https://www.esi-africa.com/news/moz-to-receive-150m-grant-from-world-bank/AFC have a significant stake here also and really looking forward to the next update which I think will be very significant.Only around 50,000 shares available on Friday close so if good news lands and stock is scarce this will rerate swiftly.

[m1sak] 08/10/2017 11:53

Export and help for SA has been mentioned before and you have a point. I feel more interest may come on board after we close the first finance deal next year. There is also export to Malawi and Botswana on the cards.

This is the unique position we are in- we just need to progress it.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 08/10/2017 11:39

Certainly they would be more inclined towards Western investment though whilst this could be European would not rule out US partner or one closer to home... export of energy to South Africa grid would certainly be lucrative for those that can achieve it.

[m1sak] 08/10/2017 10:13

Five day countdown starts tomorrow....

Expecting update RNS`s on-

-Announcement of new preferred partner
-Working Capital Finance, probably linked to above.
-Announcement of AGM

It could all come in one big RNS.

I am going for Wednesday.

Whoever has approached the company with an unbinding bid with a similar financing structure to SEP has obviously been watching from the sidelines keeping a watchful eye and probably encouraging the company to change its tack. Whoever it is may have bigger plans for the region, not just Mozambique.

I am going for a European based entity.

[imjustdandy] 07/10/2017 16:36

Negotiations to enter into exclusive arrangements with a preferred new partner are at an advanced stage with exclusivity expected to be granted in in early October 2017.

[m1sak] 06/10/2017 15:55

Hi Clock.

You may be right..

I just hope that once we announce our new partner that the company will go on a PR Roadshow and attract some attention, for the right reasons this time!

There will still be milestones to attain leading up to Financial Close.

Plus the AGM should be a hoot!

Looking like events will be revealed next week now.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 06/10/2017 08:29

"Proposals under review to raise additional equity capital to finalise new partner process and cover overheads for up to 12 months.""This follows receipt of a non-binding offer which includes an investment structure not too dissimilar from previously disclosed proposals that is now being finalised between the parties."I'm thinking this may well be a closed equity raise with the new partner and that would certainly be commitment!