Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ncondezi Energy Limited LSE:NCCL London Ordinary Share VGG640631039 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.15 -3.3% 4.40 133,887 10:12:47
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
4.30 4.50 4.55 4.40 4.55
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining -1.73 -0.53 15
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
11:44:53 O 6,187 4.304 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/9/202010:16Ncondezi Energy - Power Generation in Mozambique8,246
25/7/201912:53Nconduzi - 20101,145

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Ncondezi Energy Daily Update: Ncondezi Energy Limited is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker NCCL. The last closing price for Ncondezi Energy was 4.55p.
Ncondezi Energy Limited has a 4 week average price of 4.35p and a 12 week average price of 3.25p.
The 1 year high share price is 6.70p while the 1 year low share price is currently 3p.
There are currently 349,695,049 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 174,384 shares. The market capitalisation of Ncondezi Energy Limited is £15,386,582.16.
dozyduck: The reason, of course, the shares haven't reacted yet, is the unknown amount NCCL will have to contribute (in addition to back costs) to keep its 40% share. Assuming the $11bn capex and a 70% project loan, this totals $132m. Back costs not likely to exceed $30m (can be worked out from accounts and past statements) and there is no such thing as a 'development premium' (except maybe a small fee) for power plant projects like this. They are for the likes of commercial property which, until recently, could be sold off at a profit (the premium) over their build cost. So, still around $100m to be raised in NCCL equity at an unknown share price unless some of that 40% is relinquished to some other equity investor. Second reason is NCCL hasn't published an up to date NPV since 2014 - which was for a different scale project. (Any tariff agreement won't answer that question either) . Putting those two unknowns together means new investors will hold off until they're clarified. And Cannacord's May 'initiation' note showed it hadn't a clue either.
dozyduck: I see they're asking, over there, for Cannacord's recent note. I can tell them the analyst has made a serious mistake in predicting NEL (the coal/power company) will have a 'fair value' at financial close of only $130m, which in turn leads to his 'target' share price of only 13p. So don't panic ! (Except that the note will influence institutional shareholders' perceptions until it is put right. Watch various spaces.
mike2909: Early April this was over 8p, then they raised at 6.5p with the majority of the funds earmarked for the Gridx project. Imo this killed the momentum of the share price at the time and apart from a brief foray to 10p on announcement of Jda,we have struggled ever since with the share price I am not in favour of this deal, in my opinion the main Jda for 300MW with prospects of increasing that in time would of sufficed. Nearly 5 years to break even on this,was it really necessary? Quite clearly the market is not impressed. Under 5p again!
mike2909: Don�t need to reassess my strategy but thanks for the advice! All I am saying is that many people on the forums and twitter seem to take every increase in holdings by SF as though it is the catalyst for an increase in Nccl share price, which thus far is not the case.
mike2909: sandy me personally not too concerned at this stage regarding financing. To me we have a massive hurdle to clear share price wise in the tarrif and PPA agreements. Get through those successfully and the share price hopefully will be at a level where I can leave the building. I suspect maybe a lot more people are thinking along the same lines. If these are successful the financing should take care of itself.
yogaboy: Thoughts on the share price. I wasn't expecting a rise to an irresistible sell, but I was expecting some kind of a rise on announcement of the JDA. It was described by the company as a major derisking event and the market should have responded accordingly.Although the market's reaction doesn't necessarily change my overall exit plan, it is a puzzling little conundrum that has made me re-examine my underlying assumptions. That makes sense, in my view.Lots of possibilities, but here is the situation through one of many different lenses:CMEC are now running this project. The JDA was signed on their turf, not NCCL's. What is their aim here? Well of course it is to maximise their outcome, and that would mean minimising NCCL's outcome. CMEC have huge resources and they want the big prize. They are in a financial position to play a much longer game, to wait out the time necessary to allow doubts to creep in, to allow vagueness and lack of detail to undermine NCCL's share price, and to snap up the project or NCCL itself when the time is right. NCCL can not afford another breakdown in project partners, so they have no option but to tag along, and they will be boxed into a cash hungry corner.The next indicator will be a delay in clinching the next milestone.That is the risk that the market can see. The share price is following the market's concerns.Discuss.
mike2909: Could the reason the share price has not met most peoples expectations on Jda be down to the actual wording of the JDA Rns,and how it differed to the previous updates put out this year. All the updates this year refer to a binding jDA, but the actual JDA does not have the word binding before it. There are get outs and at this stage,it is not binding no matter how you dress it up. I know the company is now saying that the JDA has to be completed to start the next process at the governments insistence and i understand that. Although the initial tariffs were submitted last year without a JDA. The market is fully aware of this hence why the share price is still at this low level.I honestly think this could be the reason and value will only accelerate when we reach the binding stage. I am not looking for an argument,but this is my opinion as to why we are at this price.
cl0ckw0rk0range: So Mike you think that if the share price dropped people buying wouldnt make any difference to the share price?Erm ok... you know how markets work right?Supply and demand?
cl0ckw0rk0range: From the KIBO board but actually relates to NCCL oddly."Even going by sizes of projects and resources (before its larger project share) NCCL is much the larger.1) It has much more coal over and above needed for its long term power plans (1,800 MW), and is close to export opportunities now being developed.2) Tete capex is $1bn against Kibo's projects' (Mbeya or Moz+Bots) capex around $650m (assumed). At equivalent profitability, means NCCL's total project profit to be shared is 1.5x Kibo's3) NCCL has paid a lot more in costs which it will receive back on financial close. Around $30-$40m - against $19m as would have been at Mbeya, but nothing so far for Moz and Bots.4) NCCL's share of its project will be far higher than Kibo's could ever have been. With its back costs, NCCL expects to end with c 40%. Kibo never could have had more than 19% for Mbeya, and will have less than 10% of Mabeseweka on spending so far. To get more it will have to spend more, which it doesn't have !5) NCCL has only 285m shares in issue (more to be issued on loan conversion but still low) against Kibo's 640m and rising.Add up all those factors, and you'll see why NCCL has ADB as a cornerstone investor while having signed up GE and CMEC to fund its project, which has completed and paid for all its necessary studies while Kibo has spent nothing so far on Moz or Bots or Med. All adds up to why NCCL has also always warranted a larger market cap than Kibo, and an even higher share price"
lurker5: YogaB There isn't a project to 'own' until its been financed to the tune of more than $1bn, In any case, NCCL doesn't 'own' it. The Moz government has given NCCL licenses etc so that it can 'sponsor' the Tete power station (because it already owned the coal mine) But Moz can easily take way the power station sponsorship and give it to someone else. Exactly the reverse of what you say - and in either case GE and CMEC will deal with and enter into partnership with the new sponsor. When and if GE / CMEC put up '60%' of the equity, unless NCCL puts up (by paying for) its 40%, GE /CMEC will actually own 100% of what has been financed thus far, and NCCL will own nothing. Although Hanno has said he hopes NCCL will end up with 40% - that will only be so if 1) a certain amount of NCCL's past spending will be accepted by GE / CMEC as having been an essential part of the project capex and 2)NCCL can raise the funds to 'buy' the remaining share up to 40%. If it can't find the funds, it will stick with the (11% or so I estimated - it might be different)share 'bought' by its past spending. See the emails (very minor parts redacted) below which I republished at the time From: Hanno Pengilly Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2017 4:26 PM To: Lurker (not real name) Subject: RE: re NCCL research and voxmarkets Hi -- redacted ! Im sure you can appreciate that we cant be making statements in the market every time someone makes a misinformed comment on an internet forum. Please feel free to share the information I have given you. Regards Hanno From: (Lurker) Sent: 15 November 2017 12:50 To: Hanno Pengilly Subject: Re: re NCCL research and voxmarkets Thanks Hanno Yes, I realise that. But those on the BB’’s are convinced you will get a 40% ‘free carry’ !! We all know that is nonsense, but they are inexperienced and ferocious in insisting on their fantasy ‘valuations217;.(Lurker) From: Hanno Pengilly Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2017 10:26 AM To: (Lurker) Subject: RE: re NCCL research and voxmarkets Hi (Lurker) We are deep in due diligence and negotiation at the moment so I cant be too specific about the exact terms of a deal for NCCL. I mentioned in the VLOG that Ncondezi would look to retain 40% of the cashflows of the power project. You are correct that NCCL would need to fund its 40% share of the equity check at FC. However, the size of this equity check will depend on how much development premium and return on historical spend Ncondezi receives at FC, which is expected to be reinvested as part of NCCL’s equity contribution. These are key negotiation terms for the project that are still under negotiation. There have never been any references to NCCL’s 40% being a free carry. It is important to highlight that NCCL will be raising capital for its equity contribution at or close to FC, where the project will be materially de-risked (PPA and debt financing in place), as well as having world class partners leading the project development. We would expect this to attract infrastructure and annuity income investors who will recognise the value of this project de risking and invest on return metrics not currently factored into the NCCL share price due to its stage of development. We have also not taken into account any additional benefits generated from the mine, which should provide additional cashflows to investors. I hope this clarifies things. Regards Hanno
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