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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ncondezi Energy Limited | NCCL | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.825 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.825 | 0.825 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 03/5/2023 10:37 by lurker5 Todays RNS not shown on investegate either under NCCL or SGN |
Posted at 07/3/2023 09:16 by danmart2 It will only hit 5p after the next share raise and massive share consolidationIt could be concluded NCCL has only 1 interest, the board of directors. As always, do your own detailed research and work out what they are not telling you |
Posted at 25/1/2023 20:42 by beetroot juice You might just be right at last Ace, however your year is wrong:)Maybe NCCL will be 2023s multi bagger of the year. We are moving up nicely on real news flow and a real project. Scott Fletcher buying more is very encouraging and as you highlight, more news is due. |
Posted at 11/1/2023 09:03 by lurker5 Utterly muddled as usual Mr Yasx. I was following NCCL when the coal project was still up and running and since then have told as it is with he switch to solar. And since when did I recommend GGP except after it had, as I had forecast, collapsed in price ? Your commenting history shows me you have a personality problem, and quite possibly an educational one. |
Posted at 10/1/2023 22:39 by yasx Lurker,You need to undertake some basic research. You were on here for years dismissing my well laid out case that the coal project would never proceed with NCCL's involvement - all your mutterings about NPV, debt financing and how it would yield hundreds of millions for NCCL were laughable. Eventually you indicate well, things can go wrong. Now you are plugging the same baseless nonsense for the solar project. Things can sometimes go wrong for investors - but, in your case every Co. you have promoted goes wrong. What happened to Xtract? Greatland Gold? The list is endless. Let me put it another way. For all the essays you have produced, have you ever called one right? No, thought not. Failure after failure. If you had a smallcap short fund, it would be one of the best performing funds on the market. I jest not. |
Posted at 21/11/2022 20:58 by lurker5 To add for Danmart. NCCL's figures seem based on no need to raise any funds to keep its share of the project - which at around 19-20% is what it will 'buy' through reinvesting the c5% project development fee alone. So apart from more raises to keep the lights on for the next two years, there shouldn't be any cash raise to fund any more share of the project to achieve the figures NCCL quotes - ie for 100MW a 10% discount NPV share equal to $4.6m or $9.2m at 5%. and over twice those for a 200MW project. So beginning not to be sneezed at. NCCL's annual cash flow for a 100MW plant then turns out at $1.3m-$1.7m and for a 200MW project $3.8m-$4.6m. Important to realise that larger projects won't involve NCCL having to raise more project funds because its project share around 20% will be maintaind by its larger development fee. All in all a good muliple of todays share price looks feasible by the time of financial close. Thats the theory anyway. |
Posted at 21/11/2022 10:10 by lurker5 Disappointing. Progress is much slower than hoped. Ray of light is NPV 10% discount rate is high for a utility (if NCCL transitions to one). A more realistic 5% would double the stated NPV's. But they have to be divided among whoever puts up the equity. In medium term the much higher returns above 100MW would be really good and if NCCL can't raise the dough would attract majors. So 5 years down the line NCCL might eventually get to its goal.On a brighter side the stated cash flows appear to be the true cash flows to shareholders after all the costs and deductions that other energy companies never disclose to punters - Mast and Kibo being the worst offenders. |
Posted at 24/2/2022 01:12 by danmart2 The deal for the coal and power plant with have an exclusivity between NCCL and the Chinese.If either side can’t fund progress the other side get the option to buy them out. The problem is, NCCL have no leverage, have nothing to offer, won’t get finance for the project. So the Chinese will only pay a pittance if indeed they pay at all. NCCL will likely lose any costs thus far, so those historical costs which are a small fraction of NCCLs contribution will be gone. So ask yourself, what can NCCL expect from a partner who hold all the cards, has a track record of being commercially prudent if not commercially savage and a regulator in the Mozambique government who are pro China. NCCL cannot go down the legal route, they don’t have the finances nor the clout. Mozambique government and courts know the Chinese are the only show in town, NCCL and any rights are a mere inconvenience. Nccl for all we know may have limitations and deadlines on the government licenses and or the memorandum agreement aka if there’s no deal by a certain date NCCL lose any claim over the coal and to be part of the project. Do people really think a CEO like Hanno has any commercial acumen with his track record and experience? This share is heading to 0p |
Posted at 23/2/2022 16:58 by danmart2 Thinkafrica is a YouTube channel promoting Africa investment , it has no bearing.The project has long been in concept mode, and it will go ahead long after NCCL has gone bust NCCL had a cash reserve of around £1 million when they sold the solar project to one of the directors for considerably less than it cost them to build When this cash runs out (From memory the CEO is burning through £240k a year in salary alone) NCCL have nothing left. I can see a situation where NCCL effectively sells its coal mining rights to the Chinese but for considerably less than the commercial value. Likewise I can see a situation where they lose the rights to the coal when the Chinese tell the Mozambique government to pull the plug. NCCL will then try another raise to fund a legal challenge which will be a complete waste of time. The Chinese are heavily involved in Mozambique and some may argue call the shots, NCCL will not get in there way, nor would NCCL be able to get close to funding any part of the project. One other potential is the current rise is not simply the usual rampers doing their pump and dump (they have tried this share a few times) but also a future share raise listing trying to move this share price up. One thing everyone can agree on, the lack of comms from the NCCL CEO is poor. He tends to only show up when more funds are required. |
Posted at 16/2/2022 17:20 by lurker5 From an article last Sept. A bit out of date - but relevantAnother for a potentially significant share profit is Ncondezi Energy (LON:NCCL) which still appears to be on track to build its 300MW Tete Mozambique power project. Although the vital tariff agreement is very late, an equally vital agreement with its Chinese partner (CMEC) for the EPC (engineering procurement and construction) contract has been signed, which will have finalised the price (subject to inflation and other cost movements) for those elements of the $1.1bn total project cost. (Legal and financing costs are other significant parts). Along with the indicative terms for project financing already provided by Chinese banks, this will have cemented the inputs to the tariff calculations. At the same time, the world bank has announced the signing of a contract to build the Mozambique end of the Mozambique-Malawi Regional interconnector, confirming the Government’s intention to build up its infrastructure in that area, where Tete is the project most advanced to generate the power for it. As in many such projects in the developing world, NCCL as the ‘sponsor’ Which means that, unlike for Kibo (even before it was forced through financial incompetence to exit the African power market) potential value for NCCL shareholders is still substantial. Before financial close (which is expected in the first half of next year) exact figures can’t be calculated. But the company’s latest projected economics show that the $1.1bn capital cost would, approximately, generate an average annual $175m EBITDA over 25 years – leaving a total of $1.9bn net cash to equity shareholders, of which NCCL’s agreed 42% share would be $799m. Missing from the equation is how the contributions to that $1.1bn will be met. NCCL has indicated that it expects 70% will be met by a project loan from the Chinese banks already signed up, and it is repayment of that loan that accounts for most of the difference between the annual $175m EBITDA and the annual $76m flowing to equity shareholders. That means that, in order to earn its $799m total, NCCL has to contribute 12.6% or $140m up front, and it has various ways of doing so. What follows is therefore my own – very rough – speculation, because NCCL hasn’t yet announced its intentions, and a variety of permutations are possible for the style of funding including (unlikely in my view) that Chinese investors will buy out NCCL’s share. About $30m could be met from what it is owed by CMEC for NCCL’s share of past work, and perhaps another $10-20m from the development fee it will be paid (although that is speculation, as no details have been announced). NCCL might divert some of that to fund its new solar power venture, but if it raises (say) $100m through new equity, the question is what investors will pay for shares whose returns NCCL will by then be in a position to forecast. Such a calculation is fraught with difficulty, but my own conservative estimate is that they might pay 5c per new share, so that on the 2,440m total then in issue, cash earnings per share would be (on average) 1.3c and their own yield 26%. If they pay 10c per share, the total would fall to 1,440m and cash earnings per share would be 2.2c, meaning their yield would be 22%. Some might think my calculation is over-cautious and that investors would accept a lower return and therefore pay a higher price. But it shows how sensitive such a calculation is. In any case, I started my articles on mining shares by stating that, in addition to pure recommendations, they would concentrate on how investors should approach valuing them and the pitfalls to look out for. In this case caution is warranted because finding investors to invest in African coal projects won’t be easy, and it may be that the only interest will be from pension etc funds looking for an annuity style return. They demand what looks to equity investors a very high return. In any event, NCCL might have other options – except that I don’t think CMEC will buy the whole company as some hope. Power plant builders never do, because owning coal mines and limited life generating plants is not where they make their money. Building them is. Even so, my crude calculations (subject to many further unknowns) show there is a lot of scope for the shares to recover from their exceptionally low lows, which could have been partly engendered by recent placees ‘flipping̵ |
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