Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[beetroot juice] 01/7/2021 13:01

Still at 2.9p.

Still 2 failed partners left in NCCLs wake.

Still no tariff.

Still monies needed to fund the long wait for a tariff etc, funnelled to Penguins Brother.

Still $500k gifted to a NCCL director, for consulting work that should have been undertaken by himself under its Umbrella..IE as an NCCL Employee. Not by his main business interest, SYNERGY consulting.

Still no news.

Still a lot of KUM-BA-YAH on LSE and its NCCL cult thread.

But hey its Africa, its complex and we should all be-LIE-ve every drop of Kool aid contained in NCCLs RnS releases.

That Kool Aid stated in 2019. THAT the then LONGGGGG Awaited

Tariff was to be finalised early 2020:)

But err Sorry, forget that..... Now in late 2021, anytime in the long distant future.. Maybe, possibly, hopefully..ETC ETC ETC

[yasx] 29/6/2021 10:28

Beetroot,

I am afraid this has to be valued on the basis of the battery project alone - which, put simply, is not worth much if anything at all.

I hope Hanno is able once again to hype up the tariff twaddle in order to induce a spike thus enabling an exit for some.

[soultrading] 29/6/2021 07:22

Could it be Scott? or do we think it is just value hunters?

[soultrading] 29/6/2021 07:18

Quite a few 250k buys there. Hmmm.

[yasx] 28/6/2021 22:46

lurker528 Jun '21 - 12:21 - 8671 of 8677
All indications are that it is still being progressed.....

-------------------------

Not so lurker - all indications are that this has fallen by the wayside and there is little chance of anything meaningful happening. What is absurd is that you can't see it (I respectfully suggest you confine yourself to your banal seminars on the fact that NPV targets ought to be rendered moribund when it comes to determination of appropriate valuations for a Co. since you have very little understanding of how a Co. with little to offer will seek to entice potential investors by dangling a perennial carrot). The Co. will not have formally been advised there is no project, but it will have a damn good idea why it is not progressing to closure.

Let us examine the language used in 'official' publications in support of the main project (forget the proactive guff, that is promotional hype and of nil significance). We won't go too far back with the dangling of the carrot when it appeared clear there was no tunnel, less still light at the end of it for the main project - we will begin chronologically in October 2019 when the Co. announced the foray into Hanno's solar battery nonsense:

23.10.19 Whilst the Ncondezi Project remains the Company's primary focus, the investment in the C&I renewables and battery storage energy sector offers a strategic advance into a new growth sector.

Of course, throwing the main project in there enabled the lackluster news of the battery project to be better absorbed by disgruntled shareholders - moreover, it enabled Hanno to get a few more funds for 'working capital, as follows:

The Company has also put in place a working capital facility for US$750,000 for the main Ncondezi Project which is provided by a company owned by a trust of which newly appointed CEO, Hanno Pengilly, is a potential beneficiary

and that

This puts the Company in a strong financial position to deliver on its work programme over the next 3 to 9 months."

Of course by now it was becoming clear that all the attention was being directed to the battery project, much ot the chagrin of shareholders. But Hanno could not concede there was no coal project goose that would lay a golden egg since this would see investors leave in their droves to the detriment of the battery sideshow. Thus the theme of 'discussions are progressing and will update in due course' was bound to continue, and did...

12.12.19 NCCL selects Synergy Consulting as preferred financial advisor to prepare Project financial model and finalise tariff submission and negotiation process with EDM with finalisation of tariff negotiations during H1 2020.

Well, it seemed to investors thing were moving along nicely and a deal was soon to be crystallised. After all they had even hired specialists in Synergy to strengthen the team. Synergy seemed the ideal candidate since apparently "in August 2019 the Company and its strategic partners launched a competitive process to select a financial advisor. Following a detailed evaluation between the Company and its strategic partners of the proposals submitted, Synergy was selected as the preferred advisor."

Clearly a team chosen entirely on merit - although more careful observers will have noted Aman Sachdeva, a director of the Company was also a director, founder and majority shareholder of Synergy. How very convenient for him!

With the considerable expertise of Synergy, NCCL repeatedly advised in subsequent announcements that tariff negotiations would be finalised in H1 2020.

More ebullience was expressed in January when NCCL announced serious intentions with regard to the project

"The updated financial model with supporting documentation from leading global players in the power and finance sectors further elevates the Project as a leading advanced stage development project in Mozambique, and sends a clear message to Government, EDM and potential investors as to the serious intentions of the Company and its Partners to deliver the Project"

How very impressive you might think - however, it was all promotional guff since Hanno is now distancing himself/NCCL from this project as being a direction not to steer towards based on the most recent announcement - all that serious intent disappeared like the dust in the wind.

However, as late as March 2020 the Co. continued to maintain tariff negotiation finalisation remained on track to be delivered during H1 2020, with the now oft repeated line that gives lurker sufficient comfort that things are rosy, being "the Company continues to make good progress towards delivering on its objectives...."

However, by that stage, interspersed with the tariff carrot were updates on the battery project - the direction was shifting, initially in a subtle manner, but more marked in recent times away from the main project to this sideshow which has now become the main objective.

It was even suggested that this project was so badly needed that it was 'critical' for the region, describing it as "critical to promote economic transformation and social development in a region with some of the lowest electricity access rates in the world" - (it is so critical that the Govt has not even bothered as yet to properly entertain it)

Late March was the first hint that there was no likelihood of the tariff negotiations being finalised by anything like the end of H1 20. Here is what Hanno stated at the end of March 20, tacitly accepting there would be no favourable outcome, as follows:

31.3.20 Although difficult to set firm commitments in the existing global climate and travel restrictions, the current target is to finalise the tariff negotiations by the end of Q2 2020

From this point onwards, the solar show simply took over - it then became a case of updates on the solar project with a line or two dedicated to the tariff update, which became a case of periodically repeating things were still progressing well but no firm timelines. Despite having earlier in March 2020 essentially conceded that there would be a delay, Hanno was at it again in April reaffirming that things were on track for delivery in H1 20. This, I opine, was merely to enable holders to embrace the solar project with less agitation.

Then followed another placing, again for working capital - only this time it was not merely for the finalisation of the tariff but also for "progressing its strategy in the high growth Commercial and Industrial solar and battery storage sector"

Can readers now see that the progressive shift from the main project to the solar show has been simmering for quite some time - there was no abrupt end to the main project with the optimism slowly being toned down and solar being sold to investors as the next big thing. However, the Co. was unlikely to pull the plug on the project since that could remove the main lever that enables raising of funds for the battery project, so, in a manner to which shareholders are now accustomed, Hanno repeated again in August 2020 that "Tariff negotiations are continuing in parallel and are progressing [sic ] positivly. "

Let us pause for a moment - the matter was supposed to be finalised in H1 2020, at all stages holders were advised things were progressing nicely, yet here they were in August 2020 with no finalisation of the tariff but still being told things were progressing positively. What progression had there been? It was regressing each month, with money pouring out and nothing meaningful to show for it.

Another mnth, another generic update. In Sept. Hanno announced there was no change to the timeline for tariff negotiations, which apparently were still, yes, you guessed it, "progressing positively".

Fast forward a few months and another placing, again for working capital and again "to cover corporate costs to complete the tariff negotiations". I think it is becoming clear to readers how this carrot is very important for purposes of raising funds since absent that there is no chance Hanno could get these placings away for the solar battery project alone. Further bolstering the case to holders that the project is on track is the prospect of historical costs being factored into the equation, quantum of which will be fully determined upon the finalisation of the elusive tariff!!

It gets worse. Synergy, having been advising the Co. on the tariff finalisation (and, clearly the Co. failed miserably on that still not having concluded anything tangible) went on to be beneficiaries of yet another agreement, this time to advise on, yet again, the tariff, but also to provide services for " potential support for capital raising for the Company's renewable energy strategy in the high growth African Commercial and Industrial ("C&I") sector."

Now, it becomes even more obvious which direction this is taking. Again, the appointment of Synergy for this additional agreement was a related party transaction since Aman Sachdeva is a director of the Company but also a director, founder and majority shareholder of Synergy.

A year on from submission of the tariff proposal, Hanno updated the market in March of this year with the characteristic "Positive tariff negotiations continue..." Some like Lurker think this is a epochal development redolent of a favourable imminent outcome, but the reality is it is a regurgitation of what has been stated for nearly two years.

The optimism was diluted further still in a more recent RNS. A long march from the definitive closure by H1 2020, the Co. was now stating "Whilst we remain confident the Ncondezi Project offers a uniquely advanced stage proposal with a competitive solution to Mozambique's energy generation targets we continue to await formal feedback from EDM and the Government". No timelines were provided, suggesting nothing is/was imminent.

Finally, Hanno gave his biggest signal yet that the main project was on the back burner, or at least that is my interpretation of it. Last month he declared "the transition to renewables and carbon neutrality is accelerating, and Africa stands out as a key market with the highest energy costs and lowest energy access rates". Read that again.

So, the project has gone from being one critical for Mozambique to one that the Co. acknowledges is witnessing a transition to a different sphere.

Make of it what you will. But, for Lurker to suggest it is immature to think the project is not progressing positively simply shows how little he understands.What 'indications' has he noted to which he refers, save the same phrase 'progressing positively' despite being more than a year overdue but with now no firm timeline and acceptance of a shift to a different sector.

Stay in your lane I say to those that think things are progressing nicely ....since the evidence is fairly clear to the contrary to those reading between the lines, far less to those soaking up the hype like a sponge.

[garykc] 28/6/2021 20:23

Nice bit of buying at the end. More buys than sells by the look of it and down we went

[garykc] 28/6/2021 16:12

Own up, who just took the 600k??

[soultrading] 28/6/2021 13:53

New investors should note that a lot of long term holders saw value and bought in much higher. Myself included, it seems quite a few also over exposed themselves too, which is understandable given the potential returns on success. There are a lot of annoyed holders because of the amount of time that the other parties have taken to conclude something we hoped would be quick and the fact the company failed to update holders as the price drifted (PR on Maternity leave + small team + covid + travel restrictions etc)

This was not acceptable but it is worth noting that should the tariff be finalized it will dramatically change the company and potentially propel the tiny market cap higher.

It unlocks historic cost rebates, subscription cost returns etc. It also would potentially allow the sale of part or all of the project for potentially many multiples of current cap. The time it takes to achieve anything over there adds huge value to a project with the green light.

If I was a new investor looking in then as long as you keep position sizing small the potential return to risk here is good. Look into the ins and outs, the warrants, cash position, potential returns etc. Timing is everything with AIM and NCCL is no different. Sentiment changes in a heart beat and with so few shares in issue this should propel the price higher.

[beetroot juice] 28/6/2021 13:14

Lol Lurker.. Course its childish, to you.. But off course you could be told there is cheese mines on the moon and if you chose to believe it, then it would off course be churlish for anyone to dissent from your view.

You know nothing re CMEc or NCCL bar what your told. You have no idea if even a project is really ongoing here.. That I agree is an extreme view. However to Think that 10 years later on, NCCL are going to definitely finalise a deal that has fallen over twice already, is deluded thinking..

Especially when EVERY Timeline has broken down, fallen apart and new goal posts erected for another 12 months in the future.. You will be in your grave before you get your Jam here.

Till this returns me my money or I say see ya to it all. Either way I call this for what I see that it is. If it looks like a Duck, Quacks like a Duck then it probably is a Duck. Ie if its failed twice before, and currently the yarn gets more and more tenuous, then Quack Quack it will probably fail to materialise again.

[soultrading] 28/6/2021 12:27

Agreed Lurker.

[lurker5] 28/6/2021 12:21

It is absurd, not to say childish, to post as though it's definite that the CMEC project will stop. All indications are that it is still being progressed, even if through the treacle that is African bureaucracy. If NCCL had received any indication from either CMEC or Moz that the project was in the balance, it would have had to RNS as much.

[garykc] 28/6/2021 12:20

Also makes me wonder why SF hasn't dumped any if things are as stale as stated.
7m!!!! Makes my 1m look like peanuts.
Good luck with that lot beetroot juice.

[soultrading] 28/6/2021 12:01

Sorry to hear that Beetroot. I can understand why being down on so many would leave you frustrated and I can see that you have accepted it as a loss. But don't rule out a recovery just yet. If they do manage to pull this off then you will be very handsomely rewarded.

[beetroot juice] 28/6/2021 11:56

Its called being Locked in, I might as well wait to lose it all or NCCL release some news that gives a little Volume here..Lucky to see 250k traded in a normal day..Its a dead Duck stock that I doubt will move much even if a so called Tariff, we get told is agreed..

[beetroot juice] 28/6/2021 11:54

Try selling 7 million.. I might get 1.5p

[soultrading] 28/6/2021 11:49

I am not wishful thinking, the moment I start hoping then I am off. I remain confident that we will see progress, am I disappointed? of course, the share price is reflecting everyone's disappointment with the delay and I personally thought the price would be a lot higher at this stage.

I agree with some of what has been said. But I reiterate what I originally posted, if you are close to break even and have lost faith then sell. Why hang around in a company that you have lost faith in, especially if you feel there are better opportunities?

Unless you believe there will be share price improvement and an opportunity to exit higher. If that is the case then why constantly post negatives and hamper the opportunity you are waiting for?

[soultrading] 28/6/2021 11:41

I believe they were waiting for the project to become a priority. I think that the interconnector project timescales slid and this combined with Covid, holidays, illness and travel restricts, took a little heat of the tariff.

[beetroot juice] 28/6/2021 11:32

Soultrading keep up the wishful thinking..

Its been for me 4 years of it, now I could not care less. I want my money back yes.. But holding these any longer than then, if it ever occurs, no chance.

Compared to other opportunities that are out there.. NCCL is a basket case.

How long do you really, truly, think it takes to agree a tariff?

Be realistic, 6 months max..

These Dingbats want you to believe its complex and 24 months is nothing... Keep on be-LIE-ving.

If it occurs and these rise to my Breakeven and I can dump 7 million of them, im out..

[yasx] 28/6/2021 11:28

Soul,

Why would you expect the Co. to be anything other than bullish? The official announcements suggest nothing meaningful is happening nor likely to happen anytime soon. Commentary along the lines of "negotiations are progressing..." are just a case of kicking the can down the road. NCCL is out of funds and is focused entirely on this battery project - that tells you all you need to know re the likelihood of the main project ever going ahead.

[soultrading] 28/6/2021 11:08

If memory serves me correct they already agreed a tariff at a higher price before.

[soultrading] 28/6/2021 11:07

The sentiment would flip on a dime here, when tariff news comes, my conversations with the company give me no reason to be anything other than positive.