Nanoco Share Discussion Threads

[pj84] 19/3/2024 14:57

Fat Frank, Yes I should have said, could be less, rather than will be.

[pj84] 19/3/2024 14:55

Using kooba's possible post tender figures above with a theoretical post tender amount of shares of 200m

The market cap at 18p would be £36m and 1.626% would be £585k

The market cap at 17p would be £34m and 1.626% would be £553K

Other assumptions can be used.

[fat frank] 19/3/2024 14:47

PJ84: 'It will be less than 38.5% as some directors and some others may not take up the offer'.

Am I wrong in thinking that you can ask to tender all of your shares but the total would be restricted to 38.5%??

For example I hold some shares in an ISA that I bought at 18p - I will tender all of those but none of my main holding where the weighted average is over 24p.

From HL: 'You can ask to sell all or part of your holding in the offer. You’ve got a guaranteed entitlement to tender (i.e. elect to sell) 38.5% of your shareholding. You can ask to sell more or less than this, but you might not successfully sell all the shares you tender above this entitlement.'

Surely anyone holding with a weighted average of less than 24p will try and sell more than their entitlement???

[kooba] 19/3/2024 14:31

Fat frank
Post tender the company will have 200m shares outstanding and £26m cash so thats cash backing of 13p against pre tender cash backing of nearer 18p. Because they are tendering at a premium to cash it dilutes the cash per share of the remaining outstanding shares.
But it concentrates the interest in the organic business ..this has been valued at a negative and a small positive over the past few months but if you took 20p as a recent higher average that would equate to 2p per share enterprise value or £6.5m.
If there was the same enterprise value post distribution then that would be divided by fewer shares and be worth 3.25p per share…so on a like for like post distribution you could see 15-16p…however there wil be fewer shares obviously and there will be a modest on market share buyback commencing at some point after the tender completes. So i think an adjustment price might work out slightly higher , so i think they may settle at 17-18p..this would be valuing the actual company slightly higher relative to cash backing than it has previously been factored in at.
Maybe there is some encouragement to be found with the interims on 27th March but it rather needs to be something material being delivered rather than something hoped for to move the dial in my opinion. Not much is taken on trust anymore.

I see in the initiation note from the new brokers Cavendish that the projected revenue for current financial year is £8.4m ..at the final results presentation in Oct the FD was forecasting current year revenues £8.5m £2.5m from r&d work ( same as 2023) and £6m from accounting for the Samsung settlement as previously explained .We then got the first contract awarded ,completed invoiced and one presumes paid before the end of the first half . So although we have received a contract the revenues are now forecast to be very slightly lower than before we had the contract..can’t see how that can be on all the guidance previously given. It certainly points to the size of the contract being very small indeed.

[pj84] 19/3/2024 14:03

If you owned 1% you would own 1/100 of the total. If it was reduced by the full 38.5% you would then own 1/61.5 or 1.626% of the remaining shares.

It will be less than 38.5% as some directors and some others may not take up the offer.

Whilst that sounds good, 1% of the current market cap of £68m is approx. £680k
If £30m is spent on the tender offer, then other things being equal the market value should then be £38m.

1.626% of £38m is £618k.

The reason for the fall is currently the tender shares are being acquired at above market value.

Where the share price settles after the tender offer and what the market value then will be is anybody’s guess.

[fat frank] 19/3/2024 12:44

OK, so if I owned 1% of the company and did not take up the tender offer but it did go ahead and was fully subscribed I would then own 1.38% of the 'new' volume of shares?

[katsy] 19/3/2024 12:37

In effect in should remain the same, as the cash leaving the company is balanced out by the shares cancelled. Except the 10% of shares that they won't be cancelling and that at present it's a slight premium to the share price The problem is share count can be replaced quite easily but cash is more difficult to replace especially if you don't have many sales.

[fat frank] 19/3/2024 12:12

OPEN QUESTION:

If this tender offer was approved and taken up in full would the actual market capital of the company reduce by 38%?

If so what effect do you think this would have on share price?

[supernumerary] 19/3/2024 12:07

millwall - the tender will happen - there's really no doubt at all, so you can safely stop worrying about it. As kooba says, some brokers require a business day or even two before the offer closes, for their own processing so make allowance for that. I plan to decide and action the decision in the first week of April, which should be fine.

[kooba] 19/3/2024 10:29

Or they have taken into account the close period which would have prevented directors participating until after the results announcement due on the 27th March. I’m not sure from reading posts that many are that keen on the tender and preferred a dividend anyway…the company on tax liabilities said they wanted to provide shareholders with a choice of income or capital not try to push anything into a new financial year against the firm commitment to deliver a return in the current tax year…they haven’t given a choice anyway.

[beeezzz] 19/3/2024 10:21

I see they have managed to extend it into new tax year, so obviously they have taken into account tax liabilities...

[warranty] 19/3/2024 09:42

I agree Kooba,the same 38% who originally agreed the tender are hardly likely to reject it now and nowhere near a similar amount of private investors will reject it. I’m afraid if you want to hold Nano you’ll just have to accept that you’ll always come second with this board.

[kooba] 19/3/2024 09:30

The official close is the 9th April but individual administration companies will have their own cut off dates earlier normally. But there should be sufficient time to review the results on 27th March and see if resolution 1 is approved at the GM before you have to decide i would say.
FWIW I’m pretty sure this will get approved by majority 38% of holders consulted will likely be in favour so virtually impossible to get voted down.

[millwallfan] 19/3/2024 09:07

Please excuse my ignorance if I have got the following round my neck !
I am really undecided on the tender offer BUT am I correct in my interpretation that I can wait making my Tender offer decision to sell up to 38.5% of my shares until AFTER the 28th March decision as to whether or not the Tender offer will proceed - and if it does I will then have a week or so to submit my form ?? Thanks in advance for responses. I have always favoured a simple special dividend of 10-12p and retaining my current total shares in the hope of future growth in sales - so I am hoping the Tender offer fails to get approved !!

[millwallfan] 19/3/2024 08:41

Is that target price at current level of shares in issue OR AFTER the 38.5% reduction ???

[terrorwit] 19/3/2024 08:01

Cavendish initiate coverage

"Nanoco is a world leading technology provider enabling next-generation electronic sensors and displays with commercial programmes including a production contract with a global tier-one player. The company has a strong balance sheet position to support the next phases of its growth journey, and with addressable markets exceeding £100m across multiple customer verticals. We initiate coverage with a target price of 60.2p."

[black bird] 18/3/2024 15:19

will hold , better future, 2019 posted nav 48m & 2023 £48m stated , but hoped for 23 pence pay out. outcome 24p
won't be selling as future, looks better, prefer a divi. BB

[philkley] 16/3/2024 17:52

Apple Telling Fibs....Share Message - Norfolk County Council beats Apple in £385m iPhone rowhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68580235

[philkley] 16/3/2024 17:51

Clown.Nothing more, nothing less.

[paul planet earth1] 16/3/2024 16:34

Because he either works for the company and also posts as NGR1616 on the LSE BB or he's plain weird never once has he been critical of anything the Board says or does and he claims to have be a LTH..well thats worked out pretty well for him!..I've been here since mid 2019 and been very supportive but also very dismissive of the Board and its performance over those years!

[paul planet earth1] 16/3/2024 13:37

Kooba I had predicted 40p tender but clearly wide off the mark..Seems the Board are far more ambitious wanting to concentrate shares down from 324m to around 180m so that any good news on the first commercial deal, although small, will put an ooopmh into the share price..

[barkbooo] 16/3/2024 13:15

PJ - “Barkboo genuine question, as I may have missed something, but what questions and responses are you referring to?”

PJ - if you mail your question to NANO….there is now a very good chance of a reply…..probably best if you personally ask your question.

I feel some management are now fully aware of our feelings - and maybe we will get a little more respect??….but then again, with BT - you never know.

[kooba] 16/3/2024 12:30

Block me..if you intend trying to stop me posting because you don’t like what i say..dream on.
How did i do on predicting a tender at 24p..notice you didn’t even have an opinion as usual.useless.

[shapes] 16/3/2024 09:07

Hi zingaro. I can see the logic but I'm holding fire at the moment. I hold 130,000 Nanoco shares within an ISA approximately 75% is below 24p, however the rest is not. My average is 29.4p. If I take them up on the offer with full entitlement my shares will reduce by 50,050. My average price would increase and would take longer to break even. Then there is the £3 million buy back which will reduce my shares again. I think I will decide nearer the time. ?