Nanoco Share Discussion Threads

[septblues] 11/3/2024 12:49

the company thinks there's value at 24p, the market thinks there's value at 21p.

[shapes] 11/3/2024 12:06

Well my digesting is now complete and I am not opting for the tender offer. See what happens with the share buy back.

[wynterwilde] 11/3/2024 10:44

Cutting through the smoke and projections.....I bought a good handful at 37p: would I sell them if the share price was 24p? No.

I was hoping for a 10p dividend, so yes I'm disappointed, but I'm not Tendering any shares at 24p.

[nigelpm] 11/3/2024 10:27

As Yasx notes if the business can achieve its targets and objectives and the business can go on to do very well - these prices will be a distant memory.

[kooba] 11/3/2024 10:22

Part of the lower end is because they have decided they need £23m not £20m to keep the business running to cash flow breakeven in CY2025..seems a lot !
But the other part if you work backwards is that it appears current cash is £56m rather than the expected £60m. So we are £4m down on where recent research and expectation might have taken us. They have spent money on kit which they said was a second hand opportunity but it might have cost a few £m and i guess they are ramping up the fixed cost base. Let us hope the excitement with preparations and expenses this time are far more warranted than the last time they were getting ready for wider commercialisation!

[clocktower] 11/3/2024 10:21

Maybe a company with £26 million plus in the bag might have an enterprise value higher than is being suggested, along with major investors that may take advantage of the situation PI’s find they are in, bearing in mind many will not tender for a number of reasons.

Adjust figures for in the hands of PI’s and those not in the hands of free float, along with the buy back, and the outcome changes.

[yasx] 11/3/2024 10:01

Well called Nigel re tender/buyback-think Kooba had also opined the same some weeks ago.

Overall I am quite happy with the outcome. Would have been better had the amount not been at the lower end of the expected range, but there we are.

Let us hope the optimism expressed about the business generally is real- only time will tell.

[swiftnick] 11/3/2024 09:43

Just to be clear I am not suggesting that if you buy in the market this morning you won't end up out of pocket. I am saying that if you believe that the shares are worth more than the 24p tender price and were therefore contemplating not participating in the tender, you are not optimising your return because you would be better off if you buy more in the market this morning and then participate in the tender.

[kooba] 11/3/2024 09:39

I did the math earlier..looks a bit like this..so the shares are likely to adjust once the entitlement to participate closes.

For ref the ex entitlement ( to participate ) works a bit like this

So £30m goes out to buy back 38.5% of the equity at 24p.

That is approx 125m shares out of 324m outstanding.

The cash left on balance sheet will be £26m ( £3m on side for share buyback)

So there will be 200m shares left with £26m cash. 13p per share ( as opposed to circa 18p currently)

So if there is the same enterprise value attached the shares have approx 5p less cash backing post tender and will likely adjust down by 3.5-4p accordingly in my opinion unless there is some significant news in the meantime…which i doubt.

There are some variables around full subscription and where and when they might commence an on market buyback. Also the appetite and availability of funds for pi’s to reinvest.Noting they go officially “ex” as such on 9th April ( those in nominees no doubt will have to decide far earlier) but then you have to wait until 25th April
To get the cash to reinvest. Also those in nominees , most PI’s will likely not be able to deal in any balance holding whilst the process goes though…this might favour larger investors during that period as they can sell down any rump in the market if the price holds up in ex form or might even be able to participate in an on market buyback whilst smaller shareholders may not. Folks will need to check with their own provider what they can and can’t do around this but there maybe a window where people can’t deal in their holdings.

[barkbooo] 11/3/2024 09:30

This thread is certainly educational - just spend half an hour and read everything BT has told the market and his investors about the Samsung deal….I cannot believe even 10% on here have gone to that bother.

I think Harry Potter has been more believable!

People on here that have invested their families hard earned need to come out of denial - I just hope the heat gets so hot it forces a whistleblower from inside the company.

No wonder the markets want even less regulation.

[katsy] 11/3/2024 09:15

I haven't done the math yet, but £30m is about 50% of the current market cap, if you you only get 38% of you holding tendered but the share price falls by 50% then you could be out of pocket again if you buy today. 3m buyback will be offset by the fact 10% of the tendered shares won't be cancelled.

[nigelpm] 11/3/2024 09:07

It's a smart move from a share price perspective also as will encourage buyers as it dips below 20p

[clocktower] 11/3/2024 08:57

The result I was hoping for, which is far better than a dividend impo.

They £3 million market buy back might also have a positive effect in due course.

[nigelpm] 11/3/2024 08:55

Yes - it's obvious. No doubt you should tender all and buy right now in the market.

[katsy] 11/3/2024 08:52

oh stand corrected

[zingaro] 11/3/2024 08:50

swift nick - good thinking.

[kooba] 11/3/2024 08:49

That’s not actually true..
All Eligible Shareholders on the Register of Members at 6.00 p.m. on 9 April 2024 are entitled, but not required, to tender some or all of their Ordinary Shares for purchase by Cavendish, acting as principal, at the Tender Price.

[katsy] 11/3/2024 08:46

Switchneck to partake in the tender offer you'll have had to been on the share register on Friday 8th March

[swiftnick] 11/3/2024 08:40

Everyone should tender. If a rational investor believes that the shares are worth more than 24p (and it’s a valid argument) then they should buy 62.6% of their holding in the market this morning at 21p and then tender in full at 24p expecting to sell the same number of shares back for 3p more.

Here’s the maths:

Assume current holding is 6150 shares.

Buy 62.6% of current holding at 21p = 3850 shares, cost £808.50.

New holding 10,000 shares.

Tender in full.

Expect to successfully tender 38.5% = 3,850 shares at 24p. Proceeds £924. Profit £115.50.

[echoridge] 11/3/2024 08:19

swift - you do not have to tender

[swiftnick] 11/3/2024 08:08

The best bit of trading that Nanoco has ever done. Issuing shares at 37p in June 2022 and then buying them back again at 24p in April 2024.

[kooba] 11/3/2024 07:52

I agree that the tender will be met in full…many though might wish to reinvest in the company in its more organic concentrated form depending on price adjustment…others may not.