Nanoco Share Discussion Threads

[paul planet earth1] 12/3/2024 08:35

Kooba,

Your assuming that you will pick up shares on the cheap at 17p on the 10th April the number of sales might fall short and the number buying in might see the price quickly realign back to close to 24p..its a gamble for sure and the spread is not much at the moment...

[jfacwc] 12/3/2024 08:08

personally, now this plan has been revealed, I look forward to more calm analysis and comment on this and the LSE BB. wishful thinking no doubt ... but it is what it is.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 07:49

I think the tender will be approved and will be fully subscribed..i note that the executives are not participating but Pickett is looking to sell their 38.5% of holding entitlement.
One must think that holders such as loam wanted this solution..something i alighted to several times.
Nb the company have consulted with 37% of shareholders who see this as a good solution.
I will be participating and will look to put money back in on a post tender adjustment on 10th april assuming it behaves as i think it will. No advice intended at all as peoples situations vary.

[paul planet earth1] 12/3/2024 07:36

Just for clarity Zeus19 or is it Bones698 your a complete 'tw@t' hope that helps!

How's AGL doing heard it was already broke unable to sell a single Parsortix machine lol!

[paul planet earth 1] 12/3/2024 07:22

Just for clarity, my other names are Bones699 and Twogoodtodie on LSE 🫣

[paul planet earth1] 12/3/2024 07:07

From the LSE BB the share buyback looks set for failure!

TwoGood2Die

Posts: 1,871

Price: 20.275

No Opinion

RE: Share BuybackToday 07:01
Troublesome

"If you look at the current spread 24p versus ask price 21p or 10% to 12% that's little incentive for investors to sell up!

I would say the proposed share buyback has already failed regardless of the vote which will simply be a formality ie same 37% pushing it through but hardly any uptake as investors are not forced or induced to sell"

TwoGood2Die

Posts: 1,871

Price: 20.275

No Opinion

RE: Share BuybackToday 06:45

Just to add...

"My expectation is that the share buyback will fail to attract many sellers and a special dividend payment time for late June following the signing of the first commercial deal with STM seems the more likely outcome with the share buyback failing to achieve its original objectives reducing the share capital base and making Nanoco a more attractive takeover target"

TwoGood2Die

Posts: 1,871

Price: 20.275

No Opinion

Share Buyback Today 06:42

"If you checked my original posts I cited that a share buyback was on the cards as part of a wider strategy and that was LOAM's future 'exit' strategy by reducing share capital making Nanoco a more enticing takeover target.

At the time I suggested a £40m buy backbat 40p a share equating to 100m shares this would be priced above the 37p placement price in 2022 when the company needed operational funding.

This I felt was a 'fair price' for the risks investors had faced and given that the share price itself had crashed 70% since the Feb 2023 Samsung settlement announcement was made on the $150m deal struck.

It seems the Board have become too aggressive and priced the buyback at 24p having taken third party advice, which in my view the advice offered is fundamentally flawed as its always extremely important to take such matters into the context of the current situation and recent circumstances that Nanoco faced.

A buyback at 24p if succesful plus a further £3m but with 90% of shares cancelled would at best lead to around 190m shares remaining in issue.

324m × 38.5% x 90% = 114.74m, post share price £33m/209m = 15.7p

Note: 10% of shares won't be cancelled and still in effect counted as in issue.

£3m spent on 'open market trading', £3m ÷ 15.7p = 19m x 90% = 17.9m.

Total buyback = 114.74m + 17.9m = 132 64m

324m - 132.64m = 191m therefore £33m ÷ 191m implies a 'theoretical' share price of 17p where LOAM hopes Nanoco gets taken out at between 5 and 10x multiple or 85p minimum = 85p x 191m = £160m at 8.75% WACC = implied pre tax earnings = £14m but recent buyers have been using c.5% (or less) for a cash purchase implying earnings £8m which broadly will be inline with likely first Nanoco commercial deal at c.£12m recenues per year.

The expectation is the Board believes investors will sell at 24p while current share price has risen 5% to 20p.

My view the vote at the end of March will progress ( same 37% pushing it through, just a formality) however not many retail investors will sell and risk being 'out of the market' should positive news get released and then being unable to buy back in sub 24p...

Ergo the 24p share buyback price is way too aggressively priced ie too low to induce many investors to sell up. And those that do sell were pribably inclined to anyway regardless of the price.

Given the current share price and likely poor take up, evidenced by the number of frustrated posts here, I believe the take up will fall well short of 38.5% as there is no real financial incentive to do so as the buyback price is too low, and way below the 37p placement offer, to make it attractive enough!

As always one to watch 'dodgey' LOAM RNS share holdings who would no doubt be buying up off loaded shares cheaply at 17p in the expectation of a future buy out by a third party.

Again the Board have executed a poorly thought through plan with substandard third party advice who clearly wern't aware of the previous 37p"

[pj84] 11/3/2024 22:00

The market reaction so far is broadly neutral. The share price has gone up just over 1p implying a post tender price of roughly 18p.

If the post tender price is around 18p then there is no benefit in selling other than it removes any risk of the post tender price dropping below 18p.

My initial thought was to tender my full 38.5% entitlement and to try and tender the remainder of my holding for any tender shares not taken up.

In the short term (in the absence of any significant news) selling all my holding at 24p would be the best result but apart from the 3 main directors I can’t see many other holders not taking up their 38.5% entitlement and according to the timetable if I applied to tender my full holding, the shares not included in the tender would be locked in until at least 25 April (probably longer depending on my broker dealing with the administration) with the risk of the shares falling after the results of the tender are announced.

If the post tender price was 18p then the market value would be around £36m. There would be £25.8m left from the settlement plus whatever other cash is remaining from the balance at the half year results.

£3m would then be used in buybacks and the remainder would start to be used to keep the business going so in the absence of news I can see the price falling below 18p.

When I first read the announcement, my initial reaction was, as I said, to try and sell as much as I could at 24p.

However, I am now considering selling tomorrow and then waiting to see how the dust settles after the tender is completed and the shares find their new value.

[beeezzz] 11/3/2024 21:39

BT or his advisers have come with a plan that benefits whom....

[terrorwit] 11/3/2024 19:35

I think the share price is likely already discounted for both the capital returned via the offer on the one hand and the reduction in shares in issue on the other and that new news is now needed for there to be a big change.

[terrorwit] 11/3/2024 18:03

Any value discrepancies will have already been arbitraged out by the market. Sell 38% if you want cash now. Don't if you want to wait. Won't make much difference long term so long as you're in when there's news.


New Turner Pope analysis out since lunchtime. It's 6 pages long so try and concentrate this time.

hxxps://www.research-tree.com/companies/uk/semiconductors/nanoco-group-plc/research/turner-pope-investments/return-of-capital/51e50be5-ab44-4b3a-84f6-26b4b93d1873

[purchaseatthetop] 11/3/2024 17:50

Warranty. The problem is that the BoD will next get huge bonuses up to 350% of their salaries in cash and shares and the rest of the money will be eaten up while the new shares dilute holders. But I am a cynic.

[warranty] 11/3/2024 17:47

Well unless I’m missing something here nothing I see indicates that the share price will not be lower post the offer so surely it makes sense to take the offer and use the cash to buy back then? Of course the share price may rise and you’ll be stuffed but very unlikely I think.

[terrorwit] 11/3/2024 17:46

It's much more simpler than that.

If you want to make money you'll have to leave it on risk until the company executes its strategy.

End of story.

[swiftnick] 11/3/2024 17:29

Katsy, see my post 38807. I make the important caveat that my suggestion only applies in the scenario of a long term holder (such as Wynterwilde) who believes that the shares are worth more than 24p and wasn't intending to participate in the tender. Such an individual should consider buying in the market at current levels and taking the 38.5% at 24p. For the rest of us who are more sceptical it's a harder call to make. Either cash in your chips now or take 38.5% of your holding at 24p (actually probably a bit more than 38.5% as not everyone will tender) and 61.5% (probably a bit less) at whatever price you can get afterwards, which will quite likely be lower than the current share price (unless we get some very positive company news in the meantime).

[terrorwit] 11/3/2024 17:21

I sprang from your darkest nightmares, Obvs!

[purchaseatthetop] 11/3/2024 17:15

WTF? Where did that lunatic terror wit spring from?

[terrorwit] 11/3/2024 17:12

What an excellent RNS!

Thoroughly thought out after consultations and market soundings among the biggest holders.

Of course it won't suit opportunistic short term holders who tried to jump on everyone else's hard work and patience over the years to make a fast buck out of the Samsung case but that's the proof that Nanoco got it right.

They'll have to stay invested or sell at a loss. Tough titty. If you ask me it's far from sufficient penance for the last year and a bit of constant whining and insinuations

[katsy] 11/3/2024 16:11

Just occurred to me, how is making give up my shares returning money back to shareholders?

Swiftneck, please be careful advising people to buy shares today, to make 3p on the tender offer. That will work for shares totaling under 2000. What's that £60 before trading costs! Now if you end up with 62.5% of shares you buy today, how do you know whet the share price will be ex tender date? Buy at 21p and possibly end up with shares worth 10p.

[barkbooo] 11/3/2024 15:56

This ain’t working out well for Mr. Slippery - and it was obvious it wouldn’t for us. Interesting to see if there is a backup stitch up plan B?

Management buying time to clean up the cash imo - market can smell a rat, what are we honestly left with?

[davemac3] 11/3/2024 15:32

Samsung make millions(billions?) using Nano’s technology and the small punter gets naff all or loses money.

[greedfear] 11/3/2024 14:26

A dividend would have been so much better.

[greedfear] 11/3/2024 14:25

Selling what I can. They're unable to do anything right. This is what they come up after one year of thinking it over?

[greedfear] 11/3/2024 14:22

No takers @ 20.5? Doesn't look too good. .385%•24p + 0.615x =20.5p. people expect these to drop to 18p or so. I believe they'll drop much further.

[clocktower] 11/3/2024 13:49

Some are happy to take cash now as they might be expecting to buy back in at a lower level, as they may only have the 38.5% accepted.