Minoan Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 15/12/2019 14:09

Tim we will have to see what unfolds , time will tell.

I certainly feel that we are at the end of the post world war order.Is evident that in both America and the U.K. the electorate are saying that the old Oder is dead.

A new order will emerge in the U.K. now.I hope your analysis proves to be accurate.

[tim000] 15/12/2019 10:29

Atlantic, I think you hold VILX, so I understand your perspective on the fragility of the euro financial system and the global economy. I share some of your concerns, but don't give them as much weight as you do. Once central banks discovered that vast amounts of money printing prevented (at least in the short term) some of the disasters of the 1930s depression, governments became over-reliant on the medicine. The underlying problem in my view is that, while Europe has innate advantages of a highly skilled population, the rule of law, respected property rights, etc etc, its elite wish to follow social policies that are inconsistent with economic success in a globalist economy. Awful productivity performance compared with the USA necessitates increasing money printing (and protectionism) in order to keep European economies relatively stable. Think France in particular, and its resistance to modernisation. Even Germany has to protect its car industry with tariffs, while its welfare net and payments to the EU mean it has to rely on American taxpayers to fund its defence. More alarmingly, Europe is falling behind terribly in the new technologies. Europe hasn't produced a single new tech company that competes with the new giants in the USA and China. Its only solution is to fall back on tariffs and protectionist taxes on Google etc. The consequence of all this, as you know, is a much more unstable monetary system, due to escalating QE. I think the UK has rightly rejected European values, and will follow Trump's American model instead, which is proving to be incredibly successful (and why the left-wing parties across the world hate him so much). I guess one day, the EU will be forced to follow suit following a major recession. But perhaps unlike you, I don't think that day is close. I've always likened the EU to the USSR, in the sense that both political systems were unsustainable in the long term. I think the EU, and its economic stability, has many years ahead of it before your worst fears are realised. But as you know, forecasting the economic future is hard!

[atlantic57] 15/12/2019 10:02

Tim if you are an economist my concern for min is that because a deal has still not been concluded it is rather like a cricket ball being hit high in the air,the fielder
Fails to take the catch.

None of the issues connected with the 2008 banking crisis were dealt with in the euro
Zone banking system.We are now in the absurd position of negative yields on gov bonds.

This experiment has never been tried in history,
The emperor is naked ,we are waiting for the child to speak,

I am hoping that a deal is done before the child speaks.
At some point there has to be a day of reckoning which I suspect will be anytime...

[tim000] 15/12/2019 09:53

I happen to be a professional economist, and it was obvious back in 2008 that the only hope for the Greek people to survive the disaster that is the euro, was to follow policies of the type being followed now by the new Greek government: deregulation, reducing bureaucracy, lowering taxes on capital, profits and employment, and promoting foreign direct investment. (Better still would have been to leave the EU and the eurozone, to free up the exchange rate, make Greece more internationally competitive, and avoid all of its protectionist policies.) In that sense, Greece has truly suffered a lost decade due to its voting decisions and poor governance, resulting in enormous unnecessary human suffering. I bring this up because, with the collapse in land values, property prices and the domestic economy, and the business-unfriendly political backdrop, there wasn't a hope in hell of the Minoan Directors achieving a good deal in the years following 2008. Don't blame them for the lost decade. But now, there is real hope for the Greek people, and for long-suffering MIN shareholders. The share price over the past decade is no longer indicative of MIN's future.

[wi1l] 15/12/2019 08:44

ND government: Greece is back and foreign investors showing interest again



Investors at Greek roadshows in London and New York showed renewed interest with New Democracy taking power this summer and wooing them after the former ruling anti-business Radical Left SYRIZA scared them off with big corporate tax hikes.

Sources told Kathimerini that a Greek Banks Mini-Conference by Autonomous Research and the Greek 1×1 Conference by Goldman Sachs showed Greece is no more an “emerging” market for foreign institutional investors, with local stocks (mainly banks) increasingly coming into the focus of the global investor community.

The paper said that’s due largely to the significant narrowing of bond yield spreads, and the fact that investors have stopped seeing Greece as a high-risk country although it’s not yet been able to make a full return to the markets.

[wi1l] 14/12/2019 07:48

Banks see 4 bln euro boost from property market



Higher property prices mean that the value of real estate tied to loans improves and this strengthens the asset side of the balance sheet for lenders. Commercial property prices have risen by 14 percent since lows seen in 2017, while apartment prices are up by 11 percent. Bank officials estimate that for every 1 percentage point rise in property prices, banks benefit by nearly 400 million euros.

[tim000] 13/12/2019 07:36

Illiberal Undemocrat (Uncle) Jo Sloseson lost her seat, ho ho! Anyway, should get back on topic, don't want to start a political debate again on a MIN forum.

[yorgi] 13/12/2019 07:31

Most certainly was Tim 😊

[wi1l] 13/12/2019 07:26

The original align report was better IMV than the update which appeared rushed and a few of the numbers were incorrect from memory (and I believe they didn't change the wording for the sale of the T&L business) although nothing hugely significant.

Also Equity Development report (yorgi!) as far back a 5th April 2016 is useful (apparently CE considered this the most appropriate but whether that's true now I don't know)together with their recent update is helpful too.

[tim000] 13/12/2019 06:19

Great result for the U.K. economy, and hence for future Greek tourism.

[tim000] 12/12/2019 15:46

Indeed, I know that, it's clear from the title. But it still contains a lot of useful background info on the project - maybe not to you md, but maybe to others including myself.

[mdvorkin] 12/12/2019 15:33

tim000

Sorry, but what you have posted is old information from one year ago.

[tim000] 12/12/2019 14:48

Useful research note on the project (sorry if already posted):

hxxp://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Minoan_Update_Align_Research_28_December_2018.pdf

[tim000] 12/12/2019 13:11

Thanks. Yes, I had that one. I agree that shares were probably issued at 100p on 2 May when the company IPOd on AIM, just for completeness I might try to find out how many were issued then. There has been so much progress in terms of friendly government policies this year towards investment in the Greek economy (including lower corporation tax and VAT rates), that I agree that the Directors must be confident of getting more than 7p.
Edit: In fact no shares were issued on 2 May 2007, but 2.051 mn shares were issued on 25 April @ 51p prior to the AIM IPO. So 6.9p remains the average share price for new shares issued on AIM. Should a transaction for the entire project materialise, I would be pretty confident that it will significantly exceed that price. Especially as the latest RNS says the project is attracting Middle & Far East investors (the latter likely to be Chinese).

[wi1l] 12/12/2019 12:49

Tim - I have the first issue of shares to directors (!) 1,521,441 4th May 2007 at £1 per share but nothing previous although my starting number is 47,801,851, would they have been valued at similar? £1 per share.
Also worked out very roughly main shareholders ave N Day 4p, P Raby 6.5p, mrs Adams 7p draw your own conclusions but they must surely be looking for minimum 7p plus.

[waterloo01] 12/12/2019 12:27

Quite right. Fully diluted.

[tim000] 12/12/2019 12:22

Fully diluted, £100 mn would be 17.7p. Still very nice, and not impossible!

[waterloo01] 12/12/2019 12:19

Interestingly 9p would equate to a market cap of around £40m. I think £40m-£50m used to be spoken about as a rock bottom, low end deal. A 4.5 x return from 2p

The £100m book value would equate to 23p/24p.

Wouldn't that be nice.........

[tim000] 12/12/2019 12:17

wi1L, this morning I laboriously went through all the company's share issue RNSs. From 4/5/07 to 11/12/19, the company issued 387.25 mn shares to raise £26.75 mn (including shares issued to pay expenses), at an average price of 6.9p. So that's what the average shareholder has paid for their shares to date. Does anyone happen to know whether the company raised any funds by issuing shares when it IPOd on AIM on 2 May 2007? (I can't find any reference to it on the internet.)

[wi1l] 12/12/2019 09:09

Update from Nigel Somerville

Minoan – more shares, more warrants, more delay but is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Similar conclusion

"wondering whether we might see 8-10p per share eventually"

[scotty1] 12/12/2019 09:08

I must admit that with CE giving a now timescale for some kind of agreements for the first quarter of 2020 that any talks should be well advanced and the share price should move up before any RNS to confirm any signed agreements,leaks do happen.

[atlantic57] 12/12/2019 08:56

That is a good summary Tim..

[wi1l] 12/12/2019 08:48

Agree with that Tim and also look at what the main shareholders have invested and they want a return on their investments. Reckon their ave are between 4p and 7p so anything above is worth considering and even 1p or 2p above will provide a considerable return to the main holders. Current share price is far too low IMV given there may well be a payback in Jan to Mar next year.

[tim000] 12/12/2019 07:40

I've reread the statements made by the company throughout 2019. Yesterday's statement is not comparable in any way to what has preceded it, in terms of providing clarity as to the level of international interest in the project, and the anticipated timing of (some kind of) a deal.
I guess people don't follow the share capital of the company very closely. My calculation is that, fully diluted, the share capital will be 564,526,027. That's 30% above the current level. My estimated fully diluted NAV per share of the company, based on the book value of the project in the company accounts, is just under 9p. As atlantic (I think) has said above, the book value has not been questioned by the auditors, and the company has stated (often?) that the market value is expected to exceed the book value. So it seems reasonable to assume that, should the company sell off the project in its entirety (as opposed to doing various JVs etc), shareholders might receive at least 9p per share. Indeed, management has 8.4 mn options that kick in at 9p, so I imagine they would very much want a project value that exceeds the book value.

[pinkfoot2] 11/12/2019 18:14

What we got today was another instalment in the 30 years and £50m of utter BS-any sane person can see it.

Yet another 16m of shares-sine issued north of the share price to create an illusion of demand.That doesn’t wash at all but if you believe NAV is much higher and close, it’s a terrible deal in terms of dilution.

The market clearly thinks today’s ‘news’ is utter BS too-and that’s what counts.