Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[momentos] 30/11/2006 13:17

Cheers Chap !

"In the longer term we have left our 2008 figures virtually unchanged. While we believe that we are likely to be erring on the conservative side in terms of
turnover...."

Thats on T/O of 42.2m and EPS of 15.7p. Forward P/E still down at 7 on this basis.

Time for the market to wake up and see the future I think.

[chap1889] 30/11/2006 13:06

thanks momentos

cheque's in the post ;o)

[momentos] 30/11/2006 13:04

Extracts:

"YSL sales in 1H07 exceeded our expectations and indications are that sales in 2H07 will be similar to those achieved in the 1H."

"Our new valuation range for Marchpole is 137p to 157p per share."

"Expected Sales 73.5m"

"PBT 8.2m, EPS 21.2m"

"At 33.8% gross margins for the first half were well down on the 47.6% level achieved in 1H06. We understand that this in the main reflects Marchpole's buyers requiring some compensation in the form of a discount as an incentive to their purchasing and holding additional YSL garments in stock." [that partly answers one thing at least!]

[momentos] 30/11/2006 12:06

A funny thing from the Interims statement:

"Turnover increased to # 38.6 million (2005: #14.9 million)"

It is interesting to get a bit further behind this figure, as calling it solely as an YSL bounce appears a bit simplistic.

Regional T/O:

UK 29.967m (H1 2005: 12.188m FY: 28.5m)
EU 3.366m (H1 2005: 2.686m FY: 7.2m) (inc ROW)
US 5.227m (H1 2005: ? FY: ? Est GBP11m)

Now, your average retailer does not have acres of storage space, and most big retail operations nowadays try to operate a just-in-time kind of ordering operation. Indeed in 2005 MPH was affected by this factor and by cautious ordering.

So the question is, how did they manage to produce UK sales 2.5 times the 2005 equiv period and in excess of the full year 2005 turnover?

And UK Turnover is not 100% YSL, so the starting turnover on YSL to bump is a few million lower than 12m / 28.5m, possibly making the supposed bump size 300% of previous sales.

Even if retailers were ordering in for an extra season, I would not expect it to EXCEED full year 2005. A large degree of non take-up would be expected by those without the space / not interested / didnt want the risk, perhaps even 50% plus.

So how did they do it? Seems unlikely to be purely an YSL bump, a fair degree of Ungaro/ Boateng /JCC (?) must be helping.

Even if (unlikely) it is solely an YSL bump then it is a huge vote of confidence in MPH product.

[INFO 1: Marchpole books revenue at date of delivery to client so there is no early booking of forward orders in this number. Unless they have hired a warehouse for their customers where "sold" stock is held for them, but effectively the retailers property...?]

[INFO 2: Ungaro already out there:

Drapers Record 18 Nov

Ungaro Homme distribution to be expanded

Brand house Marchpole will expand UK distribution of diffusion line Ungaro Homme next spring. It will go into 20 more Debenhams shops and five more John Lewis stores, and will double its presence in Moss to 10 shops. (For info Debenhams claims 126 stores, John Lewis c 25 stores, Moss c 100)]

Anomalous. Any comments anyone?

[lex1000] 30/11/2006 11:37

momentos,do like your brand of humour.lol. ;o)

[momentos] 30/11/2006 10:45

Dont worry. The price will rise shortly. The MM's have to finish their Batman and Robin etch-a-sketch:

[momentos] 30/11/2006 10:36

Snuggling In The Voile Sheets
Private-equity firms are gambling on France's cottage industry of prestigious brands

(Business Week USA)

[lex1000] 30/11/2006 10:02

Market is a real game of snakes and ladders where can win & lose some with no guarantees all goes to plan or that all is as it seems.Bailed out of quite a few recently,including JKX which subsequently fallen below,bounced above & having trouble with 300p again.Mix of timing,research and luck.Bottom line is what "market is willing to pay" and goal of more winners than losers.Interesting thought processes that go into deciding stock to buy, entry,exit prices and how long to hold.Identify stocks likely to go up when they do never knock banking profits which is name of the game.In hindsight those banking some Marchpole @ 24p/25p were wise to do so could buy back 19p-20p & bank some recently 118p-120p.IF share price had whooshed away in hindsight better to have held! lol. Prone to making small mistakes on entry and exit sometimes forgetting use open orders.Latest o/t going to plan from 76p, 90p & 102.95p fingersxxd.SEY selected at random is still a watch not a buy equivalent to 83.75p to sell v MPH 112p therefore from 100p marchpole winning hands down.12% gains v 16.25% losses.Hope that makes feel a little better.Keep smiling. ;o)

[momentos] 30/11/2006 09:42

BAD TRANSLATION:

The festivals of end of the year approach with great steps. With this occasion, Optical Lynx surfe on the tendencies of the current mode by organizing the operation Christmas Baroque. Until January 9, 2007, all the stores of the network relative of gildings and post the visual unexpected ones of Richelieu and Marie-Antoinette carrying of the glasses Jean-Charles de Castelbajac, the distributed mark of exclusiveness by the sign. Before the departures with the mountain, Optical Lynx wishes to encourage its customers to offer the solar ones to their close relations, by underlining the originality and the facility of this type of gift: the stores immediately exchange the models which would not be appropriate. During all the duration of Christmas Baroque, they also offer a handing-over of 20 euros on all the marks the solar ones, starting from 120 euros of purchase. Let us recall that Optical Lynx gathers 129 stores in the world, and that it carries out six great operations of communication each year. Lynx Optique mixes with humour the baroque and modernity, by equipping Richelieu and Marie-Antoinette with solar Castelbajac.


[ 7 April 2005 RNS:

Castelbajac Glasses and Sunglasses

The company has also signed an agreement with Codir SA to launch Castelbajac
eyewear across Europe. Codir SA are the leader in market share with more than
2700 retail outlets and sales of over Euro700 million.

The contract is for 3 years, launching in Spring Summer 2005 with minimum
guaranteed royalties for the period of Euro230,000.

Commenting today, Chief Executive Greg Tufnell said :

"Marchpole acquired the Castelbajac business in 2004 with the aim of creating a
strong worldwide brand under its ownership. These new contracts, and the
significant marketing contribution from the licensees, clearly demonstrate our
ability to transform and grow this brand. We are successfully increasing our
presence across a wide assortment of product categories and establishing the
brand in both Asia and Europe"]

[lex1000] 30/11/2006 09:40

Very narrow spread.PLUS shows 112p-115p whilst advfn more representative 112p-113p. Actual is 112.03p-112.97p tightest seen in some time.

30/11/2006 09:16:32 112.75 886 O 998.96
29/11/2006 13:57:25 112.97 1,935 O 2,185.96

[momentos] 30/11/2006 09:13

Yes, not sure of the context of that statement. The launch was on about 7th November, results 15th November.

So the comment can't really be sales related but rather the effort put in by Okaidi and the interest shown by media / public.

[dan de lion] 30/11/2006 07:40

"The launch of the Autumn/Winter 2006 collection in November 2006 into the 450 plus OKAIDI stores worldwide was above expectations."

[wbjunior] 29/11/2006 21:39

Lex,
Very good write up and you may be right that the new support level is 112.5, makes alot of sense to me. The bigger players know that if left to P.investors for a couple weeks with no news the share price will drop back and we see that happening once again, but as long as the support level moves ahead I'm happy, good luck with your investments lex and thanks for your inputs my friend.....regards wbj

[lex1000] 29/11/2006 20:34

Bullish (Doji) Star Pattern



BUY IF

[0o0] 29/11/2006 19:12

Spread is greater.

I should have elaborated more. Just before and since the Interims, trade data indicates much more PI selling than PI buying, as Market Makers are not charitable organisations they must be selling the stock on to someone at a profit. I very much doubt this buyer(s) is redeeming a short position.

[argy2] 29/11/2006 16:30

0o0

Is the bid price higher on Plus then or do you just mean the spread is greater?

[0o0] 29/11/2006 15:42

I wouldn't worry about this strong dollar, weak dollar stuff. Marchpole seems to be a global operation both in marketing and manufacturing so it is all swings and roundabouts, rather like the share price. Speaking of which the share price is stronger on Plus market than it is on the LSE. I reckon Lex is spot on with suggestions of a large buyer(s) in the background.

[wbjunior] 29/11/2006 15:33

IT would be better for MPH to have a stronger dollar because when using an average exchange rate we would end up with more pounds for our dollars, end of..............What I think is interesting is the way the share price has been walked down on vitually no or low batch activity, just shows why the city guys always get the cream, don't play their game. Save on transaction costs and hold tight until they come into the game.............wbj

[momentos] 29/11/2006 15:09

" 'Falling dollar doesnt reduce sales in the US'

When reported in GBP, which is MPH reporting currency, YES it does.
Of course it works both ways, they will gain when the $ strengthens."

If you sell 6 suits £100 dollars in the states your sales are still $600 dollars. Whether you want to translate that into zloties, pounds, camels or whatever, the sales are still the same.

Your posts do not show any degree of serious analysis. You seem to get the conclusion first and work back to find a matching fact.

I still await an explanation of why Moda is supposedly soaking up cash. A statement without any evidence to back it up, like most of your posts here.

[momentos] 29/11/2006 14:32

Got over 1000 once but never done it since.... 955 is pretty good!

[premierpompey2] 29/11/2006 14:28

955.5 is that good?