Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[roguetraderuk] 28/3/2022 19:05

EI, you can argue that defence over the next few years is much clearer to f/c and that is nowing making up more than half of sales along with the power unit. the civil side is long haul/wide body mostly and even with covid on the back foot, will take longer than short haul to come back although its now a smaller part of the business. but id say its not the worst time for someone to look at that from an outlook stand point, given that they now wont need to raise quite as much money as before (now that defence likely to pick up strongly). however i dont think mro is in the right position to take it on. maybe rolls is considering spinning something off that would be a consideration for mro and others but as i say i read recently that mro are going to start looking towards the end of the year although if they have decided to hold onto their cash it could bring that forward i suppose.

[essentialinvestor] 28/3/2022 17:40

rogue, hope they would not go near RR!. Very complex business with those engine
service/maintenance plans etc.

And yes too big in any case.

[roguetraderuk] 28/3/2022 16:24

after mkt news of 575m share placing of barc shares around 150p. if you think rates are topping thats one way of doing it.

[roguetraderuk] 28/3/2022 16:22

rr are prob going to need a yard or two in capital at some point, i think its fair to say. mro has a few bob which it was to pay out but has decided against. they did say they would start looking at the end of this year. mkt cap wise its a lot to ask imo at this stage given the valuation of mro isnt historically high. although i am sure they would be well placed in theory to make it work.

[darrin1471] 28/3/2022 16:04

Rogue and EI
RR to big for MRO to swallow?

[essentialinvestor] 28/3/2022 15:37

Under £1.19 is my next buy price.

Very large scope for upside if we return to anything like normality in civil aerospace.

GKN auto perhaps the gem in their current portfolio.

MRO likely to take a hit IF markets turn lower again, my bullish view is
on a 2-3 year basis.

COVID clearly delays disposal gains on the GKN business units.

[roguetraderuk] 28/3/2022 11:19

bought some mro last week. think a lot of bad news is priced in. recession would lead to more downside but mkt looks 6-12 months fwd and any recession likely to be purely technical so i dont think youll see too much more. id be surprised to see covid lows taken out given world was ending at that point and mkt was quite emotional. youve got a couple of gaps at a pond and then the high 80's, thats as far as id expect youll see them go in a worst case.

[darrin1471] 28/3/2022 11:15

RR share price jumped near the close of business on Friday by 20% without any obvious story. 100m shares traded in last half hour. Speculation was that BAE may be interested.
What about MRO?
Too big to swallow? MRO £5.5b mkt cap. RR £8.4b
GKN debt repaid
"Ahead of plan, the opening net debt(1) of GBP3.4 billion at the GKN acquisition has been fully repaid in less than four years"
UK government RR golden share reduces the number of possible bidders.
I hold MRO and RR.

[1justine] 11/3/2022 10:11

Why don't these two clowns take their self obsessed debate elsewhere?

[essentialinvestor] 10/3/2022 17:09

Tend to take posters at face value, if someone wants to make things up
that must feel very hollow inside.


I've posted contract notes previously where someone has doubted a trade I mentioned.
Bought back 12,700 shares this afternoon sold before yesterday's close.
if anyone wants to see details, more than happy to post.


As mentioned yesterday there looks no easy or quick resolution to Russia Ukraine
and prolonged military action more likely - hopefully I'm wrong

On wider markets we could be in the early stages of a new bear market, if so then
about everything is going lower. My view is often on the cautious side to be fair.
Would not rule out a test of £1 here as posted earlier this week, let's see.

[medieval blacksmith] 10/3/2022 09:59

He does try hard to keep his inferiority complex under wraps but sometimes he just can't help himself.

Who cares getting?

I certainly don't, and I suspect most other thread readers are really not that bothered about your pseudo US tracker fund and your shallow liquid lunches with false people.

:)

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 17:39

Directors also adding, highlighting this as over the years they have often been
astute readers of the Melrose price.

We don't know what time frame they have in mind, but would suspect they see
medium term value.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 16:42

Darrin, good fortune, sounds like you are very clear on a trading plan.

Reduced MRO today but can't make a definite call on either market levels or individual share prices, just try to add a few of what I like on down days.

A good deal of bad news already in the MRO price it's fair to say, but would doubt
increased volatility is over.

[darrin1471] 09/3/2022 16:30

EI. I can't see any easy or obvious climb down available to Putin that is acceptable to the West. If Putin is successful, sanctions increase and there is a lot of pain with inflation. If Ukraine battles on then the West sends more weapons, sanctions increase and there is a lot of pain with inflation.
Don't back Putin into a corner. The West is quite rightly in my opinion backing Ukraine but the West is now unable to back down either.
Unless Putin is ousted Ukraine is unfortunately going to be a battleground for a long time.
I was 60% cash last week. I played the bounce on Monday (I have not done that before), selling on Tuesday and today. Then I looked at my holdings and asked why am I still holding if I think there is worse to come. So I have now sold 50% of my core holdings today.
Holding Boo since Monday as trading update due tomorrow. They have been shorted for nearly a year. Up 20% since Monday so I either lose my 20% profit or they are double my Monday purchase. They are not going to be unchanged at 8.30 tomorrow.

[roguetraderuk] 09/3/2022 16:18

look not where the puck is but where it will be, hence often it is better to travel than arrive.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 16:04

Your wish may still be granted!.

MRO still trading as a risk off/on geared play.

[medieval blacksmith] 09/3/2022 16:02

I'm not complaining but would have preferred it to stay lower for longer.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 15:49

Up over 11% on the day, can't remember the last time that happened with Melrose.

Needs to be viewed in the context of recent weakness though.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 15:18

More egregious are the lottery like salaries paid to UKX CEO's for longer term
mediocrity of tenure and even worse in some case, for underperformance.

[medieval blacksmith] 09/3/2022 14:25

1justine

Whatever you think of Melrose they can hardly be blamed for the pandemic or Putin's war.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 14:02

With respect not interested in the last 5 years, in any case any conclusions
are highly subjective.

What interests me is the next 2-3 years, however there are risks and Russia's
military action both complicates and delays recovery.

If in doubt, get out, is the old saying. Luck with your holding or indeed if you decide to Sell out.