Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[medieval blacksmith] 09/3/2022 12:53

"AA was loaded with debt and investors arguably took a bath in buying a heavily
geared asset from private equity."

But eventually private equity bought it up again! AA wasn't set-up like a normal company. For those that actually do their research it doesn't go into administration like one would normally expect (this is a dig at getting not you Essential).

Every company has some value. I bought very low - not at the IPO - but still made a small loss. I made a much heavier one on Kier.

Getting has a fixation on these two companies because he knows I lost money on them. It is a typical troll trait I'm afraid. Sad isn't it. He has nothing better to do.

As far as I'm concerned it truly is water under the bridge. I've had worse, much worse.

It is all par for the course if you are serious about investing and do it full time. If you just buy fanboy stocks like getting does you will have made money over the last decade because of central bank activity. The following decade will be much harder and many of those wet behind the ears will find out they don't know much about investing at all. It has been an easy ride, for all of them, including getting. All getting returns on shares and increased LTIPs for doing regular stuff that most monkeys can do.

Once you have been around the cycle a few times, like you and I essential, it sorts the men from the boys.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 12:53

top, would disagree fwiw.

If you take a quick look at the 2018 or 2019 FY statements, it was paying off handsomely, then the global pandemic hit civil aerospace for 6 and dented auto production.

Just as civil aerospace began an early recovery they are hit with chip shortages
impacting the auto sector - and the cherry on top now is sky high oil and
the mad Russian monk causing what is likely to be a marked economic slowdown.

In the words of Harold McMillian - "events, dear boy, events".

[darrin1471] 09/3/2022 12:52

From final results:
"The Group will also benefit from exceptionally strong long-term future cash flows in Engines. An Aerospace Investor Day is to be held on 8 June 2022 to explain its exciting full shareholder value potential"

[topvest] 09/3/2022 12:42

Yes, GKN deal certainly hasn't worked out as well as expected. It never looked a great deal in the first place, but they have been hit by Covid-19 and now another global crisis.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 12:38

getting, I was very bearish on AA and Keir as it happens and mentioned this at
the time on the SHA board on more than one occasion.


AA was loaded with debt and investors arguably took a bath in buying a heavily
geared asset from private equity.

Keir, well construction was a sh1t business when I was a teenager working for
Higgs and Hills, wafer think margins, contracts often priced too aggressively
to win business leading to cost overruns and it is broadly speaking still a sh1t sector all these years later

There are some notable exceptions, Morgan Sindall, Henry Boot - they more specialise in niche segments

[medieval blacksmith] 09/3/2022 12:29

Essential

The world is a different place from when they bought GKN. Back then, they probably had a plethora of potential exit routes. Now, I'm not convinced they have the same riches. I think stock market flotation is certainly a serious contender now.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 12:08

Well thought at least 2 years. The auto business will be very easy to dispose of.

Traded a few I bought yesterday, attempting to reduce my holding cost
which is now down to 1.42, still a very long way from the current price and a test
of £1 would not surprise me if markets take another plunge - if, but may be, eh.
Few certainties atm.

[roguetraderuk] 09/3/2022 12:01

EI, they know when to dispose and its not now. it will be prob an ipo (unless they can convinced the americans) once the business is flying on all cylinders so to, as you say, to extract max price. not this year nor next imo.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 11:56

There scant chance of the GKN businesses being listed again.

That's just management saying ..we have options, as a method of extracting
the highest eventual sale prices.

[gettingrichslow] 09/3/2022 11:49

Minerve likes a share that’s a dog. He’s had AA (“it can’t go down”), he’s had Kier and he’s even had negative yielding bonds that have probably given him his best return!

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2022 09:34

Overdue a better day, whether a pause in a downtrend I'm not sure on.


Within 2 years and on the proviso Europe is not dragged in to a wide scale war, expect MRO to be comfortably over £2 a share.

[1justine] 09/3/2022 09:24

For anyone who came into this stock with GKN it's already been a multi year process -- downhill. Take the time value of money into account and you're looking at a bit of a Dog.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2022 17:24

Well I hope the longer term here will look much better, Ukraine and consequences of military action complicates and delays recovery in their key sectors.

Anyone buying, unless trading, needs to patient and aware this will be
a multi year process.

[roguetraderuk] 08/3/2022 16:55

mid terms are going to as bad a disaster for biden as was putin incursion into ukraine.

[medieval blacksmith] 08/3/2022 16:45

Once the political virtue signalling ends and the cold reality of financial pain hits the electorate all these numpty politicians are going to have to sit down and compromise or they will all have to kiss goodbye to their comfy positions.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2022 16:43

OIl up another 7% today is the last thing airlines need.

Civil aerospace and auto their 2 main markets.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2022 16:40

VW and BMW production breaks due to chip shortages are unhelpful.
VW saying shortages are worse than anticipated.


Whether that is already in the MRO price ..etc.

[bookbroker] 08/3/2022 16:38

These are very undervalued on the basis that they have paid of the GKN debt, repaired the pension fund, streamlined the business, invested significantly in the remaining businesses, and are primed to reap the benefits when all the strife around calms down. What should be recognized is that these businesses all relate to carbon zero mandates. Every time things look up along comes something that puts the recovery on hold.

[medieval blacksmith] 08/3/2022 16:23

Still buying tranches.

[essentialinvestor] 06/3/2022 14:03

£1.43 is my break even on Melrose, I'm clarifying as would do not wish
to give any impression otherwise.

If markets continue to sell off, nearer £1 is not out of the question.

Would hope with some resumption of normality it will look much better medium term.


First a global pandemic and now a mad Russian threatening to bring an end
to civilisation as we know it, not the most helpful of backdrops.

[medieval blacksmith] 04/3/2022 17:10

Whatever gave you that idea?

LOL

[1justine] 04/3/2022 16:57

Oh dear! And there was I thinking ADVFN was for adults.