Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[brexitplus] 23/11/2019 09:38

Getting, Lisbon is on my list of places to visit. We spent a few days in Porto a few years ago at the tail end of a family holiday in northern Spain. I’ll have a look at the train trip.

Had a lovely rump steak last night - best I’ve had for ages - followed by my favourite of sticky toffee pudding and ice cream.

[gettingrichslow] 22/11/2019 18:58

B+, not been abroad for a while. Went to Lisbon by train in late September which was really good fun. Eurostar to Paris. Two hours for lunch in Montparnasse. Then TGV to Hendaye (first stop after leaving Paris is Bordeaux!! Train cruises at 315kmh for 3 hours with the speed shown on a screen in each carriage). Bottle of red while looking at the countryside. Then the ‘train-hotel’ from Hendaye to Lisbon, arriving at 6.30am in Lisbon. Fantastic trip which I thoroughly recommend to anyone who hasn’t tried it.

[brexitplus] 22/11/2019 16:53

Hi Getting

Where are you this weekend? Home or abroad?

Tonight we are off to Miller&Carter. Mrs B+ has been there several times with her girl friends but this is the first time for me. Excellent steaks I’m told. Owned by Mitchell & Butler which is doing very well at the moment.

[gettingrichslow] 22/11/2019 14:43

Have you cheered up a bit Meanwhile, now that the share price of the only company you invest in has risen a bit? Thank Christ for that, you were starting to sound like you needed psychiatric help.

[meanwhile] 22/11/2019 11:38

brexitplus tells us :-

"Citigroup has increased its target price by nearly 10% from 230p to 255p."

An increase of 25p, on a base of 230p, is, to be correct, more than 10% (not nearly 10%), around 10.87%.

The % change is always calculated on the base number, in this case 230p, not on the final figure, in this case 255p.
(If the % change was based on the final figure, you could never have a change of more than 100%).

It is quite important for a structural engineer to know this.
For our own benefit, can brexitplus please let us know what structures he has worked on in his career, bridges, flyovers, high rise buildings etc.?

The Citigroup information was useful though.

[brexitplus] 22/11/2019 10:58

Citigroup has increased its target price by nearly 10% from 230p to 255p.

[essentialinvestor] 19/11/2019 13:48

Given the backdrop of their markets, that is a solid enough statement.

[yertiz] 19/11/2019 13:27

He listens to me, haha.

[brexitplus] 19/11/2019 12:50

Re Halma, Fundsmith Smithson has a holding. Terry Smith seems to know what he is doing.

[yertiz] 19/11/2019 12:04

Slightly tongue in cheek, especially with the £3 prediction but if Nortek could be offloaded there's no reason this wouldn't be north of that figure. Halma are flying, seems like Mr Market has sat up and listened and liked what they heard. Happy days.

[brexitplus] 19/11/2019 10:43

Losos and Tournesol

Me too. I did an overland across Africa in 1981. In Lagos there was a body on the beach. We were warned not to go near it as the police were watching it and “charging̶1; people looking closely at it with murder. Of course they could get off by paying a big bribe. The most corrupt country I’ve ever visited.

[tournesol] 19/11/2019 10:33

Hi LososWhen I worked in Lagos we saw dead bodies on the road every day. They were left as if they were road kill. We even had a dead body lying on the office steps for a week before it was moved. T

[losos] 19/11/2019 10:30

B+ "It’s a hold for me." I recently adjusted my holding down slightly to be more in line with what percentage of overall portfolio I normally hold, remainder long term hold for sure.

Thanks for the updates. Market seems to like it.

[brexitplus] 19/11/2019 10:19

Yertiz

I agree about Nortek. Re GKN I think everything is progressing well. When sold the different parts will be much better than under the old regime and much more valuable.

Still, they know what they are doing. It’s a hold for me.

You must be pleased with Halma.

[yertiz] 19/11/2019 09:15

Another jam tomorrow update. I think Nortek has become another millstone around the share price neck. The sooner it is offloaded, the better MRO could concentrate on their primary objectives with the GKN businesses. Otherwise there is no way this will be £3 by Xmas, lol.

[brexitplus] 19/11/2019 08:56

DO YOU REMEMBER all of that posturing by Airbus re Brexit. Last week they said in the DT

“Airbus has “no reason” to quit Britain in the event of a bad Brexit deal, according to the plane-maker’s boss.

Guillaume Faury, chief executive of pan-European aerospace business which makes its airliners’ wings at its plant in Broughton, North Wales, said there is a “short-term risk [that] no deal would cause a lot of disruption”.

However, he added: “We have a very strong base in the UK and we are very happy with this industrial base. We have no reason to move production out of the UK. It would be difficult anyway, these are huge industrial systems - you can’t just move them.”

He said that “aside” from Brexit concerns, the UK has a “very competitive ecosystem” for the aerospace industry.

[brexitplus] 19/11/2019 08:18

Positive TRADING UPDATE

“TRADING UPDATE

Melrose Industries PLC ("Melrose" or the "Group") publishes the following trading update for the four months from 1 July 2019 to 31 October 2019 (the "Period"). All numbers are calculated at constant currency.

Melrose is trading in line with the Board's expectations for 2019.

The improvements in the businesses are being delivered at pace and the Melrose Board is confident this will unlock significant further shareholder value.

Divisional highlights

Aerospace

Aerospace has achieved sales growth of over 5% in the Period compared to the same period last year, once again outperforming the Board's expected longer term average growth rate. In addition, good margin improvement has been delivered compared to the same period last year.

Automotive

Automotive delivered a higher profit and margin in the Period compared to the same period last year.

In the Period sales were down 5% year-on-year, which includes the temporary effect of the General Motors strike in the US. The business consequently showed, once more, its ability to perform impressively even with this market headwind.

Powder Metallurgy

Powder Metallurgy was impacted proportionately more than Automotive by the temporary effect of the General Motors strike, which led to a sales decline of 13% in the Period compared to the same period last year - without the strike revenue would have been in line with the Board's expectations.

In the Period, contracts were exchanged to acquire Forecast 3D, a leading player in 3D printing, which had 2018 sales of $19 million. This acquisition is expected to complete by the year end and will further expand Powder Metallurgy's capabilities to become a leading global player in this fast growing and exciting market.

Nortek Air & Security

Nortek Air & Security has seen improving year-on-year trends in the Period compared to those seen in the first half of the year. The division achieved modest sales growth with margins similar to those achieved in the same period last year.


Other Industrial

Other Industrial is trading in line with the Board's expectations.

Net Debt

Group net debt was in line with the Board's expectations with significant investment and restructuring actions being funded to further improve performance and initial steps to reduce working capital in GKN being implemented as planned.

Melrose will be presenting its full year results on 5 March 2020.

Justin Dowley, Chairman of Melrose, said:

"Melrose continues to do what it has always done well: improve businesses. Some macro conditions could be more helpful, but this has not stopped us continuing to transform the GKN businesses, delivering another trading period in line with expectations, and achieving better trends than seen in the first half of the year. We are excited about what is possible and confident in our ability to unlock significant further shareholder value."

MY NOTE

“Several auto parts makers have been impacted by the 40-day strike at GM, which began on Sept. 16 over higher pay, greater job security, a bigger share of profit and protection of healthcare benefits.”

[brexitplus] 18/11/2019 15:46

Losos

Have a look at Graphcore, an unlisted company, which is at the forefront (that’s a good word) of chip design for AI. Investors include Microsoft, Dell and BMW. I have a holding in Draper Esprit Plc which has invested £14 million which is currently valued at about £79 million, and Graphcore currently valued at about £1.7 billion. Last week it announced that Microsoft is using its chips in its cloud service Azure.

[tournesol] 18/11/2019 12:36

Losos

Perhaps it's a pity that we don't use AI to run an unmanned parliament!

More seriously, having spent my entire working life in IT, I remain highly sceptical about driverless cars. I can perhaps imagine them working in a new build city which has been purpose designed to faciltate autonomous vehicles. I can't imagine them driving safely through historic cities like London, Cairo, Athens, Paris, Lagos. It is next to impossible to build a complex system which has 100% reliability - you can see that from all the high profile glitches in systems used by public facing organisations. Thos glitches are not simply bad design or faulty construction, they are an inevitable consequence of complexity.

My son works in AI and tells me I'm a dinosaur. He is not involved in driverless cars but tells me they are inevitable. He also tells me that 90% of white collar jobs will disappear and be done by AI technology within his working lifetime.

Bill Gates once said that with revolutionary technology, we tend to over-estimate its speed of arrival/roll-out but under-estimate its long term impact.

T

[meanwhile] 18/11/2019 12:27

Thanks, Losos.

I'll be making a record of your comments in my 'Investment Strategy' file.

[losos] 18/11/2019 12:17

MEANWHILE "Is there any mention of Melrose in this week’s ‘Horse and Hound’?"

No but there's plenty about electric tractors which may one day use GKN drive trains haha. Also I did see an 'unmanned' tractor sewing seed in the summer, was going very slowly, but weird to see no one in the cab. Personaly I would prefer to see any 'unmanned' vehicles in a muddy field rather than on the M1 haha.

[meanwhile] 17/11/2019 18:05

Losos,

I’m pleased to see you back here.

Is there any mention of Melrose in this week’s ‘Horse and Hound’?