Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[lord gnome] 24/1/2011 18:59

Pub group and brewer Marstons' share price has taken a hit in the last couple of months making what Peel Hunt described as the best operator in the modern pub industry an even bigger bargain.

Snow disruption, an 'overwhelming exposure' to places with average public sector employment, and the north/south divide (the claim that the consumer economy will become increasingly two-state) are thought to have had an adverse affect on sentiment towards the stock recently. However, Peel Hunt thinks that these fears have been overblown, especially the north/south divide where, in the broker‚s view, 'it is better the trade in a good location in a weak geography than the other way round.'

'Marston‚s in recent years has thrown off the vestiges of the old regional brewery model to become an effective contemporary retailer with a strong emphasis on value, backed up by interesting beer brands that give character to its pubs,‰ says the broker.'

Peel Hunt recommends a 'buy', along with a target price of 124p.

[diku] 24/1/2011 13:40

chipper!!..

I don't want to see this any chipper...

[golfer25] 24/1/2011 11:31

looking chipper

[golfer25] 24/1/2011 11:15

bought some

[1aws] 21/1/2011 16:44

At least it closed above 99.3p. Useful chart Brucie, I didn't realise the 200 day average was around the 99.3p mark until I saw your chart. Let's hope it acts as support as it did today. Anyone any idea why there are so many small trades, often only in the hundreds?

[diku] 21/1/2011 14:53

Yes trading update should be next Friday at the AGM...

[diku] 21/1/2011 10:36

What chance MARS could sell off the brewery side of business & become a wholly eat In Pub/Restaurant business...any views?... how much is the brewery business worth?..

[essentialinvestor] 21/1/2011 09:25

It's wider than that again, anything UK consumer cyclical is being hit.

[brucie5] 21/1/2011 09:18

Yes, seems odd. But I distrust intraday dips. I would see it as being in oversold territory, and if it manages to close above £1, the bounce back could be swift. Also, the 250 has been coming off its highs recently, so there is a context for this weakness. All imho.

[1aws] 21/1/2011 09:05

I hope that the 99.3p (closing price), that has held as support for the last few months, would hold. Any chartists out there?

[essentialinvestor] 20/1/2011 16:58

That reminds me of the classic Victor Meldrew line..

.."Just when you think things will never get any better,
they suddenly get worse.."

[farnesbarnes] 20/1/2011 16:26

Yes. But that is the problem with oscillators, they stay oversold in a trending market.

Just when you think it can't go any lower, it does. There is nothing to suggest when this fall is going to end.

c2i had an SL of 100p which may have been triggered today. Mine isn't too far away either.

[diku] 20/1/2011 16:03

This is looking grossly oversold...

[jeffian] 17/1/2011 22:51

Not an issue. From the prelim results 2/12/10

"Financing

The higher margin payable under the forward start bank facility, which commenced in August 2010, will result in the blended cost of debt for the Group marginally increasing to 6.9%. This facility, together with our long-term securitisation of approximately £1 billion, provides us with an appropriate level of financing headroom for the medium term, with a structure that continues to provide operational flexibility."

and from the 2009 results

"Financing

Our debt financing is principally long-term debt at low rates of interest secured on freehold pub assets. Following the extension of our bank facility announced earlier in the year we have no refinancing requirements until August 2013."

[dnfa1975] 17/1/2011 21:12

when do they have to speak to bank re facility?

[essentialinvestor] 14/1/2011 12:20

c2i, hello

Waiting for a correction, hopefully.
Little interests me at these levels - I do not trade Oil or
Commodity stocks, so have missed some of the great gains that
many on the SHA thread have started the year with.

[contrarian2investor] 14/1/2011 12:15

EssentialiInvestor,

Nice to see you here. I posted my concerns in post number 864 and trimmed my holdings. My remaining holdings are placed with a stop-loss at £1.00p and it will be close as to whether that gets taken out.

So what have you been tracking recently?
Have you pressed the buy button yet this year?

c2i

EDIT: BTW FSTA have held up the best (thus far) over the past 1 month.

[essentialinvestor] 14/1/2011 12:07

Spot on post Ian imv, every little does not help from Tesco yesterday.

[jeffian] 14/1/2011 12:02

Not specific to MARS. All the pubco's and brewers have suffered a bit since New Year. I suspect it's macro-economic issues such as worries about the squeeze on consumer spending and some of the downbeat trading statements from retailers etc.
Actually, my own experience is that spending in the pubs is some of the last 'discretionary' expenditure to suffer. Certainly here in London (not a good national guide, I accept) they seem as busy as ever - particularly the 'gastro-pubs'. The other issue I am keeping my eye on for the medium term is inflation - if we are in for a burst (as I'm sure 'Quantitive Easing' was designed to achieve) that is usually good for real assets (e.g. property), bad for cash savings but good for borrowers (as their debts are devalued in real terms). Now let me think; who has loads of property assets and quite high gearing........?!

[brucie5] 14/1/2011 11:40

Yes, I'd be very wary of peeps telling me to sell here because they've got a short in place with 90 target.. It sounds highly opportunistic. The times I've been rattled out of a rising trend simply because of the old whip-saw effect. In my experience,'That which fails to kill the trend, tends to make it stronger..'

[farnesbarnes] 14/1/2011 10:55

I can see your 102 support Brucie, you're using the lower shadow of 30/11 whereas I am using that day's eod close.

Money flow last night was the 4th lowest level in the last 2 years. Bottom has to be round here surely.

[brucie5] 14/1/2011 10:24

Why this change of wind direction? I see support at 1.02, and then of course £1, though the 200 sma lies just below it at 99. Unless the story of gradual recovery has reversed, I'd doubt very much if the share price is going back under £1, to judge from the chart alone. On the contrary, I cam imagine some seeing this as an excellent opportunity, within a secular recovery. Div still a healthy 6.2.

I could of course be very wrong, but I haven't seen the evidence, have you?
This is what the chart looks like.