Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[gswredland] 30/11/2010 06:48

Results on 2nd

[fangorn2] 30/11/2010 00:32

Results are later today are they not? Thursday? Will be interesting reading.

[farnesbarnes] 29/11/2010 19:15

Transaction date 21st of effing October??!! There has been a distribution of some 3.5m shares since then. WTF!

[brucie5] 29/11/2010 16:31

Seems rather untimely to have a RNS today re. share purchases by Newton dating back to 22/10.. How long are they allowed to hold onto these notes?

[essentialinvestor] 29/11/2010 12:18

fb

Quick favour if I may, could you have a quick look at Compass, if possible, CPG.
This looks like a TA traders dream share, I thought approx 520-535 very approx
on this give back?.

Many thanks.

[farnesbarnes] 29/11/2010 07:15

Jeff

I'm only reporting where resistance levels are according to the (un-wound) chart, not suggesting for one moment that this is where the share price will go. And I definitely didn't suggest any timeframe.

As a fundamentalist, you know you can't just throw PER figures about without comparing them to the company's peers or factoring in growth. How much growth are you getting compared to the PER?

But since your talking fundamentals: (based share price of 101p and EPS forecasts of 9.89, 10.66, and 11.54), a rolling PE of 9.39, rolling PEG of 1.18, and rolling yield of 5.75%. Nice.

It was the fundamentals which bought MARS to my attention. It was the chart which made me buy it.

[jeffian] 28/11/2010 23:20

Average analysts' estimates for 2010 are 10p eps (they achieved 3.8p at the interims). 160p/share (16x PER)? Dream on! (There speaks the fundamentalist). If it returns to trend, I can see 160 when eps reaches 11.5p (maybe 2011?). 60% over 2 years would certainly suit me but that may not be what you have in mind!

[brucie5] 28/11/2010 16:33

1.60 would be fine for me. Thanks to both for your responses. Let's see what happens.

[farnesbarnes] 28/11/2010 15:31

Un-wound resistance levels using 2.12/share give the following new resistance: 108, 132, 143, 160.

[brucie5] 28/11/2010 14:17

Guilty as charged, Jeffian, in as much as I try to ignore fundamentals, if the chart is telling a clear story. Thanks for pointing out the RI, though while this creates dilution, it also of course adds to capital strength, and in this case, they have their own strategy, whose merits they're better to judge than I am. In my experience, chart patterns are at least as useful as commentators whose 'fundamental' analysis misses the elephant in the room: namely, that the share price is going down! Or in this case, up. The chart being, more or less, a computation of all know factors that are likely to affect it. You may of course ignore this pov, but what is yours? (Given what you have already stated above) Thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 28/11/2010 13:51

Yes thanks I did see that, looking at Greene King as well.

[jeffian] 28/11/2010 13:48

EI,
There was quite a bit of discussion about those issues at the time of the RI (e.g. see my post 308 above). I was deeply unconvinced by the argument for building new pubs from scratch vs. 'cherry picking' good existing pubs from distressed pubco's as GNK did. Although I remain sceptical, MARS seem to show that they get better RoC on their investment but it still seems to me that their approach is more risky.

[essentialinvestor] 28/11/2010 13:13

I am taking an interest here, have this on a daily watch.
Why they needed to new build though, is beyond me.

Shareholders paid a high price for that RI IMV.

[jeffian] 28/11/2010 12:30

Brucie5,
I'm no chartist and that post is the reason why! Chartists need to open the curtains occasionally and look at what is going on in the real world. The movement in 2009 which you describe as a "false recovery....before falling back to half that level" is a direct reflection of the deep-discounted Rights Issue announced on 18 June 2009 involving the issue of 11:10 new shares at 59p (i.e. over 50% dilution).

[brucie5] 27/11/2010 14:56

This looks to me like as a good a chart as you're likely to find! The false recovery in 2009 saw it reach as high as 1.90, before falling back to half that level. In the meantime the 200 ma has bottomed, and the share price has just bounced off support at 1.00. This is a chart that crested in 2007 with a share price in excess of 4.00, which I don't hope to see again - for a while at least! But there could well be some catching up in the short term, and let's hope, a prosperous Christmas period.

[timbo003] 20/11/2010 03:17

Good idea, keep VAT at 20% (from Jan 2011) for Supermarket and off licence sales and reduce it to 12% for pub sales, whilst raising the duty on all beer so pub beer prices remain the same and supermarket beer becomes more expensive



net effect:

* The government raises a bit more tax to tackle the deficit
* It makes getting tanked up on booze before going to the pub more expensive (less drunks in town centres possibly?)
* Tramps will have to pay more for their special brew, so it will encourage them to drink less.
* Responsible drinkers will drink less at home and more in pubs.

Go for it!

[farnesbarnes] 19/11/2010 15:47

Nice bounce off medium term support at 101 (old resistance), which was also 62% fib retrace level.

Seems like good volume today. Two nice 200k buys and that 350k "sell" ;) - (reported late - naughty naughty!!).

[timbo003] 19/11/2010 07:45

Reassuring results from Fullers this morning may give the likes of MARS and GNK a lift today

[farnesbarnes] 11/11/2010 12:15

Inclusion into the FTSE Dividend Plus Index at the end of September. Could be the reason for the rally since then. Next review is March 2011.

[fangorn2] 05/11/2010 13:00

Yes Marstons is a cracker to buy into, tuck away for the long term,and keep receiving those chunky divis.

[volsung] 05/11/2010 12:58

I am liking this company quite nicely. Thank you very much indeed sorr

[farnesbarnes] 04/11/2010 14:16

JD Wetherspoon like for like sales up 1.6%

[greenius] 04/11/2010 12:49

Witney's Wychwood Brewery (part of Marstons Beer Company) has been named Cask Ale Supplier of the Year by trade paper The Morning Advertiser's Supplier Awards 2010.



Regional Cask Ale Brand - Midlands and Wales: Marstons Pedigree
National Cask Ale Brewer: Marstons

[contrarian2investor] 03/11/2010 15:03

wskill,

I completely agree about patience. This is my tortoise holding stock which I am very happy to be holding. Whilst also gaining a reasonable dividend. Fellow patient holders will be rewarded.


contrarian2investor - 6 Oct'10 - 13:18 - 780 of 823 edit


Hi all,

Patience winning out and good share price reaction to today's trading update. Next step breaking through £1 and holding above it until we can call it support instead of resistance.