Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[eric gardener] 06/9/2010 11:28

boring..................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[eric gardener] 03/9/2010 13:07

yes absolutely jeffian perception of the sector is non existent. there's still an awful lot of closed pubs around.

I'd like to see mars over the 100p level tho.

[jeffian] 03/9/2010 10:33

I think it's both a 'macro-economic' and a 'sector' thing, Eric. Other than a couple of pure pub-retailers such as JDW/MAB, the whole pub sector has been in the doldrums for quite a while as it is perceived (not wholly correctly IMHO) to be particularly vulnerable to reduced consumer confidence/spending. I can't see the sector getting a significant re-rating until fears of 'double-dip recession' have receded and growth is restored to the economy. I'm sure we'll have our day in the sun again one day, but this is not a short-term trader's stock!

[2grimbo] 02/9/2010 16:58

Bring it on 125 would send us out on a good old marstons drinking spree

[eric gardener] 01/9/2010 20:47

Massive rise great stuff surely onwatrd and upward to 125+

[timbo003] 25/8/2010 05:37

Here is a bit of good news for all pub company shares, hurrah!

[blobby] 24/8/2010 09:22

Interesting. Aparently SABMiller will be paying 13x EV/EBITDA. I'll have to get my calculator out to see what that would mean if it was Marston's.

[jeffian] 24/8/2010 08:52

timbo,
I don't understand why you think that M&A activity between two huge multi-national fizzy-drink manufacturers has any relevance to two relatively small UK regional real-ale brewers.

[timbo003] 24/8/2010 00:27

A bit of commentary on the press speculation on SAB Miller/Fosters possible tie up over on Monday's ftalphaville

Worth a read

[eric gardener] 23/8/2010 10:38

92 miserable little pence. What a crock.

[timbo003] 23/8/2010 07:58

My thoughts

Return of M&A activity could increase interest in this undervalued sector

Investors seem to have firgotten what happened to Scottish and Newcastle, same sort of business as Marstons and Green King, albeit it was bigger

[eric gardener] 23/8/2010 07:45

Good post jeffian and some very valid points there. Lets hope Mars goes up though.

[jeffian] 22/8/2010 23:49

I'm sorry to rain on anyone's parade (again!) but why would a SAB Miller/Fosters tie-up be good for MARS/GNK? Rather the opposite, probably. As brewers, MARS/GNK operate in the niche market which is UK 'real ale'. Most people don't actually drink it; the majority of drinkers slosh back the tasteless fizz known as 'lager' (the stuff brewed by SAB Miller and Fosters) which is so indistinguishable and over-produced that pub-owners (including MARS/GNK but much more so with ETI/PUB who don't produce any beer of their own) were able to negotiate vast discounts by buying in bulk and passing on to their tenants at 'RRP'. Who ever knew whether they were drinking Fosters/Castlemaine/Carling anyway? The Holy Grail for lager producers has been to try to produce a 'must-have' brand but also to reduce the massive over-supply in the market so the bulk-purchasers of their products have less alternative brands to beat them down with. If one brewer can control both strong brands and limit the supply, they will be in a stronger position to dictate price. A successful SAB Miller/Fosters merger would squeeze margins on over 50% of MARS/GNK beer volumes through their estates. Why would that be a Good Thing?!

[ted1806] 22/8/2010 19:23

I know what you mean Timbo, I wouldn't pay either!

Anyway the story is still banding itself around so
you may get an update on the progress by xmas.

I am not a holder here but I like what I see. Does
anyone have an up to date list of

shares in issue and major shareholders?

Thanks in advance.

[timbo003] 22/8/2010 18:23

Thanks for that Ted

I actually spotted a very similar story on the front page of the business section of the Sunday Times today (paper edition).

The Times is behind a paywall nowadays and I refuse to pay Murdoch a penny, let alone a pound, so I went searching and found the Telegraph article (didn't check the date, needless to say, doh!)

See link below for the headline and the first sentence of the article

I must say, it does sound like it is recycled news.

[ted1806] 22/8/2010 16:28

Timbo

That story was from 27th May 2010!

[eric gardener] 22/8/2010 15:13

yes good post jeffian.

Lets hope it goes up!

[timbo003] 22/8/2010 15:02

This might liven things up (share price wise) for Marstons and Green King next week:

[jeffian] 22/8/2010 13:02

I question some of the figures quoted above and wonder if full account has been taken of the 'rebasing' of figures following the 2009 Rights Issue? Earnings Per Share in 2009 were 13.4p (excluding 'exceptionals'), down from over 18p the year before, and are expected to decline a bit further in 2010 before recovering slightly in 2011. Analysts' estimates for 2010 are around 10p/share, so a PER of 10 would put the share price not much further north of where it is now. What eps was being anticipated to target "200p +"? The 'rebased' divi is currently 5.8p (2009 final of 3.7 + 2010 interim of 2.1) giving a yield of 6.2% rather than "over 7%". As future divi policy is to pay a divi 2x covered, it is possible that the 2010 final could be reduced slightly, but the language used at the time suggested they'd tried to pitch it at a sustainable level.

I think Eric's "frustration" is misplaced. This just isn't a 'fireworks'-type share and I suspect any progress will be of the slow-and-steady variety. Having said that, I hold and I agree with blobby that it 'ticks all the right boxes' with good assets and secure income streams. It's just a bit unfashionable at the moment (and IMHO still suffering from upsetting institutional investors with an unexpected and very dilutive Rights Issue) but will come good when the market realises that the 'death of the pub' argument has been overdone - again!

[eric gardener] 22/8/2010 06:33

Absolutely blobby it is a long term one for me, it's just frustrating to see the market strong and mars down 10% after a good trading statement.

I'm looking at these for 24 months, with div and a decent rally it could be a 30 - 40 %profit.

[blobby] 21/8/2010 23:23

EG thanks for the encouragement. It's very quiet here which I take to be a good sign. I think the the pubs sector in general is not at all trendy and there is little growth, but it seems to tick all the value investor boxes at the current share price for MARS. My target is a p/e of 10 once the current recession is over which I think will be a be a share price of 200p + and in the mean time the yield of over 7 percent is really good in comparison to other safe places to invest.

[eric gardener] 20/8/2010 15:02

blobby great to have you aboard. Buy more go wild, hey are bound to rise at some sh*ttin point.

[blobby] 20/8/2010 13:20

For the record I've just become a shareholder in MARS for the first time today. They have opened a new pub near me which looks great and I've always been a fan of the beer, so I'm now convinced that there is a great future here.

[eric gardener] 19/8/2010 14:50

well you would have thought they'd be a bit higher than they are now?

There's obviously something wrong my advfn screen today it shows marstons as blue and in positive territory, we all know this isn't possible as all we've recently been accustomed to is red.