Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[southernsong] 29/12/2022 18:55

Decent buy volume today folks....and note the upcoming AGM date which was recently RNS'd.

I am expecting post Xmas / Seasonal trading update soon ie on or before that AGM date.

[southernsong] 12/12/2022 23:56

Just look at these bounce-back figures.

They are impressive and show that a recovery is well underway. On top of those figures (to October 22), sales are looking to be up a further c.7%.

SP lagging behind but it will correct itself.

A broader improvement in macroeconomic situation will see stocks like MARS move back up swiftly. I accumulate down here and await that scenario.

NAI and GL.




Marston's PLC Preliminary Results for 52 weeks ended 1 Oct 2022
06/12/2022 7:00am
UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

Marston's (LSE:MARS)
Historical Stock Chart

From Nov 2022 to Dec 2022

Click Here for more Marston
TIDMMARS

RNS Number : 6650I

Marston's PLC

06 December 2022

6 December 2022

MARSTON'S PLC

RESULTS FOR THE 52 WEEKSED 1 OCTOBER 2022

IMPROVED PROFITABILITY, SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN NET ASSET VALUE AND POSITIVE CASH FLOW WITH CONTINUED STRATEGIC MOMENTUM

Marston's, a leading UK operator of 1,468 pubs, today announces its Preliminary Results for the 52 weeks ended 1 October 2022. The period under review, which commenced on 3 October 2021, included a period of disrupted trading in December 2021 /January 2022 due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in the form of the Omicron variant.


Underlying* Total*
2022 2021 2022 2021
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
Total revenue GBP799.6 GBP401.7 GBP799.6 GBP401.7
m m m m
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
Pub operating profit/(loss) GBP115.4 GBP 5.7 GBP 142.1 GBP (90.5)
m m m m
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
Share of associate GBP3.3 m GBP (14.5) GBP 3.3 GBP (14.5)
m m m
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
Profit/(loss) before GBP27.7 GBP (101.3) GBP 163.4 GBP (171.1)
tax m m m m
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
Net profit/(loss) GBP27.5 GBP (86.2) GBP 137.2 GBP (128.3)
m m m m
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
Earnings/(loss)
per share 4.3 p (13.6) p 21.7p (20.3) p
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
Net cash inflow/(outflow) GBP26.2 GBP118.1 GBP26.2 GBP118.1
m m m m
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------
NAV per share GBP1.02 GBP0.64
--------- ------------ ---------- ------------

*From continuing operations

Return to more normalised trading despite Omicron disruption

-- Full year like-for-like sales 99% of 2019 despite disrupted Christmas trading period
-- Drink sales continued to outperform food sales demonstrating the trading resilience of the Group's predominantly community pub estate

-- Final 10 weeks of FY2022 like-for-like sales were +3% vs. 2019 and +4% vs. 2021
-- Increase in pub operating profit: GBP115.4 million (FY2021: GBP5.7 million)
-- Improved share of CMBC's profits: GBP3.3m (FY2021: loss of GBP(14.5) million)
Positive cash generation, debt reduction and NAV increase

-- GBP26 million net cash inflow from operating activities; underlying net cash inflow (excluding one-offs) of GBP48 million

-- Continued progress with debt reduction strategy: net debt (excluding IFRS 16) reduced by GBP16 million to GBP1,216 million (2021: GBP1,232 million) despite the one-off GBP22 million net outflows outlined previously

-- Property value GBP2.1 billion, representing an increase of GBP93.4 million vs. 2021
-- Net asset value (NAV) per share increased by c.60% from GBP0.64 to GBP1.02 since October 2021
-- GBP9.9 million generated from non-core disposals; disposals 40% ahead of net book value
Positive momentum on "Pubs to be proud of" strategy

-- "Back to a Billion": sales and net debt targets by 2026
-- Significant improvement in guest, engagement and standards metrics
-- Continued focus on repositioning pub estate into simplified format structure to generate strong returns: 22 transformational conversions completed and successful exit from Two for One format

-- Simplification of menus driving guest satisfaction and spend per head; enhanced operational and purchasing efficiencies

-- Commencement of new digital strategy following external appointment of Director of Digital
-- People change programme including significant change in leadership and operational teams, reshaped reward and enhanced engagement and training programme

-- Strong ESG agenda encapsulated by "Doing more to be proud of" including energy saving initiatives, focus on social purpose and good governance with improving EHO scores

Current trading and outlook

-- Well-positioned to meet challenging market conditions
-- Positive current trading, with like-for-like sales in the last 8 weeks +6.8% vs. last year
-- Well-positioned, predominantly freehold pub estate with limited exposure to city centres
-- Continued investment in repositioning the pub estate
-- Managing inflationary challenges within our control: offsetting costs through efficiencies and pricing strategies

-- The first winter World Cup and the first Christmas period without restrictions in three years to look forward to. For the two England World Cup games, like-for-like drink sales were c.+50% vs. 2021

Commenting, Andrew Andrea, CEO said:

" I am pleased to report a strong performance over the last 12 months evidenced by a doubling of revenue growth, a return to profit and steady progress with our debt reduction strategy. We have a clear and focused strategy which provides a strong platform for future growth, and it is encouraging to see the actions and initiatives which we have undertaken in 2022 beginning to deliver positive results.

Demand for our predominantly community-based pubs continues to be encouraging despite ongoing macro uncertainty and our estate is well-placed to benefit from changing patterns in consumer behaviour. We are managing cost inflation well and remain confident that our commitment to continue to reduce the Group's debt and return sales to back to GBP1 billion will drive NAV and shareholder value.

Current trading to the end of November has been positive with encouraging levels of Christmas bookings as we look forward to the first restriction free festive period in three years. Additionally, the World Cup has benefited trading, delivering like for like drink sales of c.+50% for the home team games. Whilst uncertainty remains, Marston's remains well-financed and in great shape to weather the challenges ahead with the right formula, the right strategy and the right team to continue to make progress and deliver shareholder value. "

[southernsong] 12/12/2022 23:51

jeffian....MARS have a good fixed rate deal on the gas for some time to come. Electricity yes and of course inflationary pressures on food and margins, but these macroeconomic issues will ease. One either thinks MARS will come through it to prosper, or not.

I firmly believe they will.

All of the figures have been moving nicely back in the right direction of late and I think the next trading update will see market sentiment shift back in MARS' favour.

Management are cautiously optimistic and point to MARS' historic resilience.

I agree.

[jeffian] 12/12/2022 22:54

You're looking through the wrong end of the telescope. The problem for pubs isn't sales, it's costs, particularly energy and food.

[daz1712] 12/12/2022 18:17

NAV reported at 106p and the first Christmas and new year without any restrictions since 2019. The drinks business is recession proof, customers go to the pub for lots of different reasons to celebrate and commiserate. Probably switch the heating off at home and go and sit with a pint in a warm pub!! Added another 4K today it’s just a matter of time till the value right’s itself, companies making a profit with real assets behind them come good….. not so long ago they were paying 7.5p dividend and not much has changed since then!! My opinion obviously

[diku] 12/12/2022 16:25

Would prefer around 35p...

[southernsong] 12/12/2022 14:46

Possibly diku.....a long run for England in the World Cup would have been a useful shot in the arm for the likes of MARS, but the World Cup will continue nonetheless and should lead to increased sales....albeit not as strong as they might have been had England progressed.

The main thing however is you can see from the recent RNS that even prior to the World Cup beginning, sales at Mars were trending up around 7%....so this is an improving / recovering business and it is heading into the first restriction free Christmas for around 3 years.

I am expecting a very upbeat trading update in the new year and I see every reason to add on any pull back.

AIMO only and GL.

[skinny] 12/12/2022 14:39

MAB -6.6%, JDW -2.4%, FSTA -4.4%, so probably.

[diku] 12/12/2022 14:25

Is this correlated to England out of world cup...beer sales will now slow down?...

[1choip] 09/12/2022 08:11

how cheap of this share? only 6 times of par value, it said it all.

[southernsong] 08/12/2022 15:31

A good level of trading here today with some decent money arriving.....and a positive break back up above 40p. Bodes well and all eyes on the next trading update, which we already know should compare favourably to last years.

[chinese investor] 07/12/2022 09:37

Good Up Channel !

[1choip] 07/12/2022 09:35

Surely a target to take-over

[daz1712] 07/12/2022 05:07

The Debt is supported by the freehold property portfolio so doesn’t have to be repaid, just reduced every year to increase EPS.Looking at a long term on this till the NAV and share price meet up. Buying something for 39p that’s worth a £1….??

[janekane] 06/12/2022 13:17

Great news it’s only going to take 76 years at this rate to get rid of debt
The people who put this once great company into this debt need to hang there heads in shame

[1choip] 06/12/2022 10:30

Sales up, profit up and nav £1.02. So else do we want?

[southernsong] 06/12/2022 08:06

Solid results very much moving in the right direction again and note LFL sales since October are almost 8% up too - that is good.

Major recovery over 2021 and performance in line with our pre-pandemic world.

Hold for January festive trading update imo.

I think the first restriction free Christmas period for three years combined with World Cup will be just the shot in the arm needed here.

[cerrito] 06/12/2022 07:54

Yes good news but note that while FCF was £106m, £79m had to be used for interest payments, not leaving much cash for debt reduction.

[1choip] 06/12/2022 07:44

Massive results and similar to pre-covid Sep 2019! Good job!

[m_kerr] 05/12/2022 21:58

the brewing JV is struggling a bit, that coupled with an uncertain economic environment means a lower price. marstons contributed the quality assets, carlberg the dross as value and volume in mass market lager has been steadily declining over the years. the only 'growth' that will come of it is dependent on how much cost they can take out of the business, which will no doubt be substantial.

can they wait around for those synergies, or do they need cash now? a more canny CEO would have been allocating less capital in pubs and more in brewing, but as with many other pubco's, capital allocation has been questionable at best.

[essentialinvestor] 05/12/2022 13:57

Luck with your holding, you may well get a tradable bounce.

[southernsong] 05/12/2022 13:28

Yes, good to see confirmation of that disc0dave and within the week, as promised.

Yes, tough conditions EssentialInvestor - I agree - but that's why we are where we are and I think MARS will weather it.

Remember, this is the first restriction-free Christmas period for three years and although the World Cup is, at best, a 'shot in the arm', it has certainly landed at the right time.

Directors have all been adding on this recent lull.

Patience and balls required.

[essentialinvestor] 05/12/2022 13:22

A sale of their interest in the brewing jv is an avenue to significant debt reduction.

Sector facing the toughest conditions I can remember, outside of the forced COVID closures.


I mentioned here when they turned down the £1 a share offer it looked a dreadful decision, that was far too polite!.

[disc0dave45] 05/12/2022 13:10

Results tomorrow as per RNS.