Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 18/8/2022 09:23

Not being able to get staff at a decent price causes some pubs to close early.
Youngsters refuse to waitress and clean tables for £12 per hour.
How else would they have the time to check their smartphones all day?

Thankfully the upcoming hardship and recession will make people desperate to work again.
The nanny state is broke so the handouts will end.

Holing on to MARS, choppy times ahead, batten down the hatches.

We will be back to work or starve, and about time.

[diku] 18/8/2022 09:01

So much talk about people getting help from high cost of living/fuel/energy bills...small businesses overlooked?...furlough mark2 coming?....

[buywell3] 18/8/2022 08:57

The drop yesterday in CINE imo brought the Covid pandemic effect on businesses that operate and make a profit by getting lots of people inside sitting in close proximity to each other into question

Spoons is suffering as is Marston's and other pub groups and eateries

Cash is king in troubled times

[buywell3] 09/8/2022 07:18

Sometimes the truth hurts ....

Though to be fair imo we are better off doing our own deals now if they are done right

[skinny] 04/8/2022 11:20

Still spreading the happiness......

[fenners66] 03/8/2022 08:48

Sale and leaseback of the retail properties and the sale of half the brewing.

Reminds me of MFI

[m_kerr] 02/8/2022 22:29

will open market pub rents be going up by above 4% p/a? i highly doubt that given the lower levels of profitability compared to pre pandemic.

i don't think the market fully appreciates how inflexible and onerous these very long term leases are. to illustrate, findlay will be in his mid 90s by the time some of these leases expire! 35 years ago, thatcher was still in power. long, long time to be locked into trading somewhere.

[alan@bj] 01/8/2022 18:18

I think M Kerr means MARS sold the freeholds and leased them back, so they got a cash injection from the sale but have to pay rent on the properties, and it’s that which is subject to increases in line with CPI. That 4% cap looks a good deal now, though.

[robertball] 01/8/2022 17:49

So if CPI is more marstons gains?

[m_kerr] 28/7/2022 18:11

remember that marstons entered into 35 year property leases with inflation uplifts. since 2012 they've sold and leased back property for at least £500m and entered into 30-35 year leases with upward only CPI uplifts (capped at 4%). those properties are included in the company's own calculation freehold percentage by the way (because they revert back to marstons upon lease expiry).

[brownbear3] 27/7/2022 19:23

And paid plenty to boot .

[redartbmud] 27/7/2022 18:34

Oh for those heady days in 2009 and the rights issue price of 59p per share.
The rights were raised to "fund growth." Instead we ended up with £1.4 billions of largely securitised debt on overvalued assets, led by the F plan of food, families, females and forties. What a great job Ralph and the current CEO did to achieve that result. It originally kicked off with a share price around £3.75. What an accomplishment to put on a CV.

[alan@bj] 27/7/2022 18:18

Can’t argue with hindsight. I thought the 42-week trading update was okay. Sales 2% shy of pre-pandemic levels when for several weeks they were depressed by lockdown is a decent result.

[m_kerr] 27/7/2022 17:45

findlay made an excellent move to build a dominant premium ale business, but the rest of his capital allocation was questionable. if they hadn't persevered with low return expansion and paying unsustainable dividends over the last decade, net debt could quite easily be £500m less than what it is. that meant they were forced sellers of assets which stopped them getting the best prices.

[123trev] 20/7/2022 12:12

What was the name of that similar company to this that essentially folded a few years back it’s trajectory looks very similar as well was it punch or something!

[stewart_25] 20/7/2022 12:03

Not looking good with some pubs in Cardiff with Brains kicking out three landlords within the next weeks at short notice...

[diku] 18/7/2022 20:31

The game remains the same...only the players change...

[buywell3] 13/7/2022 22:54

JDW hit 600p today as buywell said a while back

40p looking more likely than not imo

Disposable income now under strain

How much can you buy beer and wine for in supermarkets ? which are also have to cut margins below bone level in some cases now to get customers into them

[jeffian] 11/7/2022 17:25

....leaving behind as next CEO the man who has served on the Board as CFO since 2009, so more of the same.

[ianian4] 11/7/2022 16:27

We have a bit more chance now that donut, Findlay has left to destroy another drinks company.

[m_kerr] 11/7/2022 14:53

EI, you are correct, freehold percentage has been declining from a figure in the low to mid 90s, to 82% now. leases tend to be long term, upward only (1-4% CPI uplifts per annum). also remember they include the 35-40 year sale and leasebacks (that they have the option to buy back for £1 upon expiry) as freehold. it's not really freehold, it's somewhere in between, as they have to pay 35-40 years of rent. tremendously expensive and onerous form of financing which they only undertook because pre IFRS they could pretend they were delevering their balance sheet. they also did the same to their head office.

so the risks are elevated because of the leverage, and my sentiment not helped by the CEO only holding £160k worth of stock.

i still think it's undervalued provided they are able to deliver on the promised synergies in the brewing JV. IMV WTB is a better risk adjusted opportunity as it's got no financial debt, a more profitable business and demand for their core product is holding up much better in this economic climate.

[philanderer] 09/7/2022 00:18

JDW reporting next wednesday.


On Thursday former Conservative minister Alun Cairns urged the Treasury to further cut duty rates on draught beer to support pubs that are facing significant cost pressures.


(yahoo finance)

[janekane] 08/7/2022 13:47

I wouldn’t buy yet this has all the hallmarks of reaching sub 10p the debt of more than £2billion leaves us with net worth less than 10p per share
It’s a pity we can’t get compensation from our previous chief executive who loaded us up with all this dept
Regarding sale and leaseback that’s an even worse scenario it’s using our last small assets as cash to keep us afloat

[essentialinvestor] 08/7/2022 12:51

Phil, you more than know what you are doing but net debt is the big drag on price.

The flip side is the value of their brewing asset jv - could that be exited and most
of the net debt paid off?.

What I also mentioned here previously is some of the longer term sale and leaseback
arrangement Mars have made - does anyone have a handle on the extent of these.

If you are locked in to longer term, annually increasing rents on some properties,
that could potentially turn ugly on trading challenges.