Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[barnes4] 11/10/2022 08:00

Careful ole careful

[careful] 11/10/2022 07:59

We are looking for survival here, hoping for better times.
Trading update was ok, much better that worst case.

Hedging of debt very smart, reassuring.

Many pubs are closing every week, the survivors could do well one day.

[fenners66] 11/10/2022 07:47

Small sales increase , far less than inflation , despite their hedged position in energy.
Not a lot of useful detail.

[skinny] 11/10/2022 07:16

.




Marston's PLC issues the following trading update for the 52 weeks to 1 October 2022.

Sales comparisons are to the same period in FY2019, being the last period of unrestricted trading before Covid-19, and for the most recent trading, the comparison relates to the same period in FY2021.

Trading

Total like-for-like sales for the 52-week period were down 1% vs FY2019. As previously reported, this reflects the impact of trading restrictions in December and January as a result of Omicron and the corresponding impact on consumer sentiment in H1.

Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchise pubs were up 2% vs FY2019. Drink sales have continued to outperform food sales, once again reinforcing the steadfast trading resilience of our predominantly community pub estate.

Like-for-like sales were encouraging and continued to improve in the 10 weeks from 24 July to 1 October: being 3% up vs FY2019 and 4% up on last year. Growth continues to be predominantly driven by drink sales. Food sales in this period were weaker principally due to the hot weather.

The level of customer demand remains encouraging, notwithstanding the continued uncertainty around the cost of living. We continue to have confidence that our pub strategy is beginning to deliver positive momentum, evidenced by this good trading performance. Our strategy is centred upon delivering affordable pub experiences for our guests in a quality environment both inside and out. Looking forward, the combination of our strategy and the predominantly community-based location of our pubs means we are well-placed to meet the challenging consumer environment.

Cost outlook

Energy

As previously highlighted, the Group's gas price is fixed until the end of March 2025 with no additional incremental spend anticipated. Electricity costs in the last 10 weeks of FY2022 have been higher than originally expected due the volatile market for energy over the last few months. The Group's electricity is hedged for H1 of FY2023, covering the six-month period from October 2022 to March 2023. The recent announcement by the Government concerning the energy price cap was helpful and further protects our H1 energy spend. Regarding H2, we await the review of the price cap, albeit we currently remain comfortable with the guidance we have provided on energy costs for the Group's financial year as a whole. As referenced previously, as part of our ESG strategy management continues to focus on making efforts to mitigate energy costs wherever possible, such as adopting further energy efficient or saving schemes.

Food and Drink

Inflationary pressures on the Group's food and drink costs remain in line with previous guidance.

Financing and cashflow

Net borrowings (excluding IFRS16 commitments) as at 1 October were GBP1,216 million, GBP16 million below last year and GBP30 million lower than H1.

During the year the GBP50 million deferred duty/VAT paid was offset by a contingent consideration of GBP28 million from CMBC and a payment by CMBC of GBP19.4 million, reflecting a one-off working capital movement recognised in CMBC's H1 (January 2022 - June 2022) results.

Our borrowing is largely long-dated and asset-backed. 86% of our borrowings are hedged and therefore not at risk of any changes in interest rate movements that may occur during the year. Further detail is set out below:

-- The securitisation is fully hedged to 2035. Additionally, the Group's mark to market position on its interest rate swaps has reduced substantially in view of interest rate rises.

-- The property leasing is index-linked capped and collared at 1% and 4% respectively.
-- There are GBP60 million of swaps against the bank facility fixed at 4.0% until 2031. There is a GBP60 million forward start swap fixed at 2.2% which takes effect from April 2025.

At the year end, the Group had GBP65 million of headroom against its GBP280 million bank facility and GBP10 million of cash.

Commenting, Andrew Andrea, Chief Executive Officer, said :

" This is a good performance, with the trading momentum we experienced in the Summer continuing. Marston's has a long-term capital structure which is well suited to the current market environment and we remain committed to our debt reduction strategy with which we continue to make progress. We are managing cost inflation well with food, drink and energy costs covered for the immediate future.

"Whilst we are not complacent and can't predict what the future will hold, what is clear is that people want - and are continuing - to visit our predominantly community pubs. The level of customer demand we are experiencing is encouraging which underpins our confidence that our strategy is working and we are making positive progress in that regard. Looking forward, we are primed to maximise the trading opportunities provided by the forthcoming World Cup and first restriction-free Christmas in three years. Marston's is in good shape and well positioned to navigate the future."

[alan@bj] 10/10/2022 08:56

Trading update tomorrow.

[jeffian] 07/10/2022 17:08

Aye, the hope that someone comes along and puts it out of its misery!

[careful] 07/10/2022 15:34

Nice 5% rise today for no particular reason.
No comment on the thread, everyone must have sold out.

Note;
Just saw Wetherspoon results and 17% rise.
There is hope.

[john09] 23/9/2022 12:26

Interesting move to the budget

[lindowcross] 21/9/2022 16:51

Russian spies using secret code. Be careful.

[fenners66] 14/9/2022 09:56

Clearly are not reading what they are typing - but that's ok no one else does either

[jeffian] 14/9/2022 09:36

Wrong keyboard?

[harrogate] 13/9/2022 11:23

Lqa q1 am q a Pp

[harrogate] 13/9/2022 11:23

@ is l " o mmm on L I a aqoqq on. 1 l

[brucie5] 12/9/2022 16:45

Haven't been near these shares in a while, but I had a bottle of hobgoblin from a box of Classic Beers from Sainsbury's, only to discover they were indeed Marston's own. Given that I hardly ever frequent a pub, this is my main source of beer, and it is extremely delicious. Nevertheless, difficult to get excited about anything in hospitality at the moment, especially one that offers no dividend. It does have a huge enterprise value though (1.92bn) as opposed to mcap (292m), presumably reflective of the debt (1.625bn), but also assets (2.335bn) - just reading the figures out of Stocko.
I guess all that real estate is expensive to heat and may be difficult to fill?
Yet if a bid has come before, presumably it may do so again.

I had also thought that this was at least partly underwritten by Carslberg's interest?

[buffettjnr] 12/9/2022 13:30

Bid was too low 😂😂😂

[george stobart] 12/9/2022 13:23

why did the Board of scum bags reject the takeovers bids at 90p and 100p during covid?

[skinny] 12/9/2022 13:09

Andrew Andrea Director and PDMR (Chief Executive Officer) Purchases 38,000 shares @40.6p.

[danb45] 06/9/2022 14:42

wow you're a funny guy

[meijiman] 06/9/2022 11:55

Is she a big drinker then of the Pedigree? I saw her supping a pint of Fullers Pride.

[danb45] 06/9/2022 11:46

would of thought it obvious... hopes of government support now Truss is in ??

[careful] 06/9/2022 11:30

The worst is over now.

Commodity prices have peaked, we have been there before many times.
World growth about to slow and demand will fall.

Hoping the great British pub will prosper yet again.
How quickly the prices change, a good day today.

[george stobart] 06/9/2022 11:29

takeover bid getting boiled or a dead cat bounce?

[fenners66] 05/9/2022 10:49

From the DM

"Beware beerflation! Cost of beer production rises 62% in two years with further inflation ahead as the price of making your pint soars
Barley and malt spot prices are up 104% and 87% respectively since August 2020
The price of wheat is also up 39% while aluminium prices have risen 37%"

[jeffian] 02/9/2022 15:56

Looks like an ISA buy (£20k). Not very convincing IMO.

[jeffian] 02/9/2022 15:44

I wish someone would. (The company).