Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 20/2/2013 15:31

When are results due?

[bernie37] 14/2/2013 12:43

the risk grade has come down now standing at 82

[bernie37] 12/2/2013 09:18

i've been holding long term with some good dividend holding 185659k stock

[s34icknote] 11/2/2013 19:31

managed to pick up 150 k of stock today 28.4 p.
looking to hold long term.

[aleman] 08/2/2013 11:38

PIM - I've been away a lot recently. I suspect the several occasional posters here aren't bothered about discussing charts with you as they are mainly fundamental investors and it was the cheap price relative to fundamentals over the last year and a bit that has attracted them. (THe thread was pretty quiet prior to that.) I don't recall any one mentioning they bought due to any kind of charting or technical analysis so there might not be anyone terribly interested in it that side of things.

[cs44] 08/2/2013 08:23

I have no desire to encourage or discourage punters but from my perspective macf is making headway on a number of fronts. I think the development of 3rd party logistics is very positive, labels seem to have got some traction in the markets and the increase in bond yields should bring the pension deficit down.
In relation to Bernie's article I should say, that when I attended the 2011 agm management were talking about the goal of 200m turnover and 10m earnings and I think that Kite had about 8% then.

[madmix] 07/2/2013 16:16

Bernie's article is at least 6 months old, since most of the figures are no longer relevant (market cap, yield, PER, etc.)

[cs44] 07/2/2013 13:31

Bernie

When was that article published? Kite have been reducing their stake for some time and the last rns said it was ca. 5%.

[shauney2] 07/2/2013 13:12

Well Peter i'm still here.

Waiting for the results in early March.I can't see the shareprice doing much until then bearing in mind the recent stellar rise from the low 20 range.

I thought the last results were good.Margins improved in the packaging and labels division.That was in the normally weaker first half too.
Want to see how the debt and pension deficit is progressing.

Is it a bowl? No chart expert but i would say no.Lots of bowls completing out there in this bull run.Maybe the sides are too steep.Compare it to CAU which i hold.To me thats a bowl.

[bernie37] 07/2/2013 12:24

Buying shares in a company on the basis that it may be vulnerable to a bid is perhaps not a sound enough reason in itself. However, when other factors come into play, it can certainly be an added attraction.

In the case of the fully listed Macfarlane Group – which incidentally, has been around since 1949 – there could well be a solid investment case. This may well fly in the face of current sentiment, the shares sitting at 28.25p But, with a market cap of just £20 million and a solid enough business, any suggestions that Macfarlane is one to avoid may be premature.

Turning over some £145 million for its last full year, the designer and manufacturer of labels, packaging solutions and distribution is also profitable and paying out a decent dividend too. Certainly, as with many businesses today, things aren't easy, but Macfarlane has managed to deliver some respectable numbers over the last few years with the 2011 figures showing a pre-tax profit of £3.8 million. Boasting some 20 outlets across the UK, along with two overseas, the company is a decent-sized player that has managed to grow its sales since 2007.

Much of its business is focused on producing the sort of packaging you find your latest gadget or white goods secured in, namely corrugated foam or timber-type products. Alongside this, the company also manufactures and supplies self-adhesive and re-sealable labels, backed up by its own storage and warehousing operations.

These would appear to make a good fit and despite the current climate, Macfarlane is in a good position for future growth. And that would appear to be borne out by the board, where shares have been bought by directors over the last six months and at higher levels than the current share price. Additionally, CEO Peter Atkinson believes that Macfarlane is expecting further strong sales in the US, along with medium-term ambitions of becoming a £200 million business with £10 million profits. With broker expectations for pre-tax profits of £4.5million this year, the implied EPS figure of 3p puts the shares on forward PER of less than 6. That in itself appears attractive enough, but there is also the expectation of a maintained dividend of 1.5p, which covered close to 2x earnings will yield a thumping 8.5%.

Of course, dividends can be cut at any time, but there would appear to be no reason for that here, particularly as the company has recently stated that it is performing in line with its expectations. So, despite having like many others of its ilk the burden of a pension deficit, Macfarlane appears to be weathering the economic storm and could well deliver solid future growth and profits. That brings me back to my opening remarks, as Macfarlane would now appear to be vulnerable to an approach from competitors. Interestingly, KITE packaging, a much smaller competitor, has recently upped its stake here to around 8%, while there are a number of large institutional holders too, including Henderson, Unicorn and Prudential

[petersinthemarket] 07/2/2013 10:31

Having waited nearly one week for any sort of response, I can only assume either that you really are all shy, or that no-one is actually out there, or that no-one has the faintest idea what might be going on. The silence is deafening.
FWIW, I'm still in, and still interested in hearing new views.

[bluebelle] 31/1/2013 18:23

31 January 2013

Macfarlane Group PLC

Notice of Results

Macfarlane Group PLC confirms that it will announce its results for the year ended 31 December 2012 on Tuesday 5 March 2013.

This information is provided by RNS

[limit up] 28/1/2013 14:52

bernie37.
a good summary ,i agree with your thoughts ,thus the reason i have bought them 5 months ago ,they need to increase sales on the higher margin products,which is there game plan,and they have reduced sales in the lower margin products which you have eluded to...
i feel further out this is a very cheap stock..with the recovery slowly coming through..
regds

[bernie37] 28/1/2013 13:21

Macfarlane knew back in 2009 that it wasn't likely to receive any help from a struggling UK economy, so decided to help itself. The packaging materials group is now feeling the benefit and using spare cash to repay debt. Its sizeable pension deficit has been trimmed, too, making the generous dividend far less vulnerable - all of which leaves the shares looking attractive.

Weak demand and price deflation caused a small drop in sales during the period, yet profit before tax and one-offs grew nearly two-thirds to £1.5m. A tight grip on costs meant gross margin at the core packing materials division jumped by 120 basis points, driving underlying operating profit there up 33 per cent. Macfarlane is doing more third-party logistics work, too, supplying the materials and expertise to transport companies such as DHL and Eddie Stobart. Margins improved at the much smaller manufacturing division, which makes labels and bespoke packaging for automotive and aerospace parts, and profits there rose to £0.29m from £61,000. Generating £1.4m of cash from operations was impressive and more is promised in the traditionally busier second half, suggesting that borrowing will keep falling.

Broker Oriel Securities has pencilled in adjusted full-year pre-tax profit of £5.2m, giving adjusted EPS of 3.5p (£4.3m and 3p in 2011).

[bernie37] 14/1/2013 23:20

we soon will.this company is prime for takeover

[battlebus2] 11/1/2013 15:02

Surprised we haven't got through the 30p barrier yet :))

[limit up] 03/1/2013 13:02

the rating on his stock is so low ie pe compared to its peers ,perhaps a little to do with the size of the co,never the less the current rating does not reflect the growth that the co can generate in sale increases to the online ordering which is growing for the retailers which they will be supplying .they have also taken measures on the pension problem..i would have thought very difficult for them to make a aquisition as again the rating is just so low to be eps positive ,and they must reduce debt to get the balance sheet in better order which they are doing...this stock is very much dependent on the uk economy,next figs today were better than expected especially on the interent ordering.
regds

[bluebelle] 03/1/2013 11:42

bernie
Interesting post and analysis. I agree with limit up. They've been successfully trading their way out of trouble for some time now and, on my calculations, given their earnings growth rate they should continue to do so, as long as they can maintain cash flow ps, making the dividend safer than many.
If only Brown and Balls had taken their lead from the MACF Board we'd be worrying about our export performance because of the strong pound (backed up by our gold reserves!)now, rather than drowning in debt from which it is increasingly difficult to see us escaping !

[battlebus2] 03/1/2013 10:35

29.5p to buy, soon we will see that 30p again :))

[limit up] 28/12/2012 14:01

bernie.
wih regard to the dvd i think they have more than enough room to increase the dvd ,i really dont think the dvd is an issue at all..my thoughts..

[bernie37] 28/12/2012 11:45

Macfarlane yields a packet

Macfarlane knew back in 2009 that it wasn't likely to receive any help from a struggling UK economy, so decided to help itself. The packaging materials group is now feeling the benefit and using spare cash to repay debt. Its sizeable pension deficit has been trimmed, too, making the generous dividend far less vulnerable - all of which leaves the shares looking attractive.

Weak demand and price deflation caused a small drop in sales during the period, yet profit before tax and one-offs grew nearly two-thirds to £1.5m. A tight grip on costs meant gross margin at the core packing materials division jumped by 120 basis points, driving underlying operating profit there up 33 per cent. Macfarlane is doing more third-party logistics work, too, supplying the materials and expertise to transport companies such as DHL and Eddie Stobart. Margins improved at the much smaller manufacturing division, which makes labels and bespoke packaging for automotive and aerospace parts, and profits there rose to £0.29m from £61,000. Generating £1.4m of cash from operations was impressive and more is promised in the traditionally busier second half, suggesting that borrowing will keep falling.

Broker Oriel Securities has pencilled in adjusted full-year pre-tax profit of £5.2m, giving adjusted EPS of 3.5p (£4.3m and 3p in 2011).





MACFARLANE (MACF)




ORD PRICE:

20p

MARKET VALUE:

£22.7m



TOUCH:

19.5-20.5p

12-MONTH HIGH:

23.5p

Low: 17p



DIVIDEND YIELD:

7.8%

PE RATIO:

5




NET ASSET VALUE:

22p*

NET DEBT:

31%







Half-year to 30 Jun

Turnover (£m)

Pre-tax profit (£m)

Earnings per share (p)

Dividend per share (p)




2011

68.5

0.92

0.62

0.5



2012

68.0

3.17

2.03

0.5



% change

-1

+245

+227

-





Ex-div: 12 Sep

Payment: 11 Oct

*Includes intangible assets of £25.9m, or 23p a share




IC VIEW

Management says business has been "satisfactory" since June and Macfarlane's shares trade on just 5.7 times forecast earnings - but it's really all about the dividend. As long as Macfarlane keeps generating cash, that hefty payout should remain - making the shares a speculative buy.

[bernie37] 28/12/2012 11:24

does any one subscribe to, This is Money Midas Extra. Idid for a short period, not sure but I think the article below refers to macfarlane

Money .
Article
MIDAS EXTRA SHARE TIPS: Packaging firm on festive high from online shopping boom

By JOANNE HART All By This Author - 05/12/2012 16:37:57

[limit up] 27/12/2012 16:16

bernie
the co has not covered itself in glory in the past,but they are i beleive totally focused to get the co firing on all cylindes also i beleive most of the directors are under water ith the current sp,and they do own a few between them..
regds

[bernie37] 27/12/2012 14:43

If u go back to the 80s these shares were trading i the £20s