Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[nhb] 10/9/2012 10:23

Hi Aleman, what did you make of the results after your second read through?

[aleman] 30/8/2012 11:55

Pretty respectable results. Certainly not bad but I'm still trying to decide whether they are actually good or not. I need to give them another read through.

[bernie37] 29/8/2012 10:55

The riskgrade is the lowest i've ever seen?

[bernie37] 16/8/2012 12:24

IF a take over was to happen at what price would that be?

[aleman] 16/8/2012 11:58

It's a bit late now but stockmarkets AND bond yields have been rising for the last month, which should help pension deficits a bit, generally speaking. I wouldn't want to bet on it continuing, though.

[ian77] 16/8/2012 11:55

Just dipped my toe in mainly for potential take over offer or failing that the divi which seems sustainable at these levels.

[aleman] 26/6/2012 12:57

Thanks for that, hastings, even if there is little new there. I think he should have noted that the interim dividend looks very likely to be postponed and paid with the final, given the most recent movements in share and bond markets and their effect on MACF's pension deficit and distributable reserves. Anyone buying on that tip might be shocked if the interim is passed.

[aleman] 30/5/2012 17:09

Why not? I don't think the current market will cause many problems after surviving the recession and jump in pulp/corrugated prices. MACF's numbers (if not the shares) have held up better than I would have expected during the recession and look set to outperform a little if the recovery ever comes. Debt has remained roughly static as turnover has slowly grown, helped by a small acquisition. I could see a recovering UK market (with a possibly slightly bigger recovery in packaging as the UK manufactures more for itself and export), recovering UK margins and a modest acquisition pushing turnover up a 1/3rd to £200m and doubling profit. It seems a reasonable target for an optimistic chairman during a likely tenure of several years. When it actually comes is anybody's guess, though. Might be a year or might be 5 but the dividend will keep me happy until it happens.

[bernie37] 30/5/2012 16:45

any views on the last sentence, taken from The Herald

Incoming chairman Mr Bissett praised Mr Hunter's "calm and methodical" methods and said: "Archie has set very high standards when it comes to managing the board."

Mr Atkinson outlined plans to grow the retail packaging business into one with £10 million of revenue and said the re-sealable labels division was expected to deliver further strong sales in the US.

He added medium-term plans for Macfarlane to become a £200m business with £10m profits are "not just ambitious but realisable".

[diku] 30/5/2012 13:24

Yes and its a minefield out there....

[aleman] 30/5/2012 12:49

The shares continue to drift. I know stockmarkets and bond yields have reversed the gains of Q1 - and more - so that it now looks like the interim dividend will be postponed (rather than cancelled) but this now looks oversold enough to be another buying opportunity. The only thing stopping me topping up here is so many other shares also look well oversold, meaning there is a great deal to choose from.

[aleman] 10/5/2012 12:20

It's odd the shares should fall (even allowing for the 1.05p ex-dividend) after good trading news in the IMS - which I missed on the day - but the fall in stockmarkets and bond yields in the last week could see a higher pension deficit push us back into a lack of distributable reserves for the interim dividend. The IMS has again given us a commitment to paying the dividend in full by the year end so it might be a good time to buy/top up for the brave. Increasing talk of yet more QE in the UK and US suggest the pension deficit isn't going to go away. I do wonder how much better we'd be if the Fed and B of E weren't so keen on meddling. I suspect things would look much better if they'd stop channelling these back door profits into banks to improve their balance sheets to meet EU capital limits that are being increased after the horse has bolted, instead of being dipped into in times of hardship - which is what they are there for in the first place!

[cockneyrebel] 01/5/2012 14:16

XD for an ISA-able 1p divi a week today at the close.

CR

[cs44] 10/4/2012 13:54

Obviously it's nice to see director support with share purchasing by 3 of them, and ,while this does not always have any short term significance, I am delighted to see that the retiring Chairman has great confidence in the company. Retiring directors normally reduce shareholdings.

[aleman] 04/4/2012 13:28

The economy should be better for MACF in Q1:

UK sevices PMI was well ahead of expectations. Coupled with moderate manufacturing growth and a strong construction output, Markit suggest 0.7% services growth in Q1 might push GDP to 0.5%.



EU services composite PMI was slightly ahead of expectations but still probably represents a slight fall in GDPof around 0.2% and, so, a technical recession.



Curiously, the services PMI for Spain indicates growth around 0.2% so that it might have outperformed the rest of Europe in Q1.

[aleman] 03/4/2012 10:16

Long gilt yields have fallen back half way so there could still be problems for the interim dividend. However, the trend still seems to look generally upwards and the general trend in stockmarkets seems to be in the right direction as well. Fingers crossed.

[hydrus] 03/4/2012 08:11

May well have seen the bottom here as gilts continue to rise. Great dividend share

[aleman] 27/3/2012 14:43

New forecast out but doesn't have a broker name to it.

22 Mar 2012
2011 3.90 3.00 1.55 133.60
2012 4.50 3.00 1.55 142.00
2013 5.00 3.30 1.65 153.00

[cs44] 23/3/2012 13:56

It's not selling, most of the trades are buys. As I said above, you can buy well below the offer price.

[bernie37] 23/3/2012 13:51

don't understand the share rise,when there's somuch selling

[cs44] 23/3/2012 09:27

It has been possible to buy well below the offer price for a number of days and although you can buy in volume the market makers don't want to buy in any quantity, therefore it looks as if someone has stock on offer.

[aleman] 16/3/2012 15:40

UK 10-year gilts up another 0.06% today to make +0.36% so far this week. With another rise in equities as well, it will be an excellent week for UK pensions generally, and MACF's in particular, with its high equities holding.

[aleman] 15/3/2012 09:56

Equities were 59% at end 2010 so MACF could be a big beneficiary of market movements on pensions so far in 2012. As the improving pension deficit raises distributable reserves, things will probably now have to get significantly worse again to threaten the interim dividend.