Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[peddlers] 03/12/2024 07:14

Bought some MacFarlane yesterday.
Looking to hold longer term..

P.

[rp19] 29/11/2024 17:01

Thanks Eric, maybe slightly higher than I was expecting. Market conditions are tough but it's certainly not a demanding rating.

[pireric] 29/11/2024 06:58

FY24 11.8p
FY25 12.1p

Eric

[rp19] 28/11/2024 21:56

Anyone have access to the latest EPS estimates from today's Shore Capital note?

[hardupfedup] 28/11/2024 07:37

Broadly in line, if it drops I'll be buying.... Solid well managed company.

[scepticalinvestor] 28/11/2024 07:22

Yet another business massively affected by this ridiculous budget. Im not complaining as I am short here. But v sad to see the demise of British business

[scepticalinvestor] 26/11/2024 12:57

Someone is certainly dumping in huge quantities.

[scepticalinvestor] 25/11/2024 16:25

Impressive volume

[nchanning] 12/11/2024 08:14

As regards NI and minimum wage impact here , this will be significant . However they are in exactly the same situation as the supermarkets - domestic business competing only against domestic businesses in exactly the same situation . You would expect price rises by all players to match increasing costs

[nchanning] 19/10/2024 09:09

Even something very conservative like :The company will only buy back shares when the Free cash flow yield is over 8 % and only up to 0.5 x debt to ebitda .Very little risk for such a stable predictable business to use the balance sheet to retire some shares at such a bargain price . Plenty of headroom to do acquisitions as they arise

[nchanning] 19/9/2024 13:31

Management are really missing an open goal by not buying back some shares here . With over a 10% FCF yield (and that probably a little suppressed by a weak economy ) it really is an easy decision to use the strong balance sheet to retire a good chunk of shares . At the very least set out the conditions under which you would buy back shares . Because at the moment the answer seems like never !

[bsdjj] 06/9/2024 11:30

Interesting looks like Aberforth have bought a new holding of 5% of the company. Their smaller companies fund has a decent track record. Looks like they have bought 5% from scratch so maybe an RNS to come from the seller? Jupiter?

[masurenguy] 23/8/2024 15:18

Been on my Watchlist for awhile. Nice and quiet thread but still watching and waiting.

Mark Simpson takes a cautious, but broadly neutral view, of the interims.

"Resilient performance in the period; trading broadly in line for the full year

When a company begins their results with the dreaded R-word in the title, you know there is trouble to come. “Broadly” always means below, of course. Then, when they started their Full-Year Results with the results table and now begin with the narrative, investors are sure to fear the worst. In reality, this is a relatively minor profits warning, with Shore reducing EPS from 12.5p to 12.0p and similar changes in future years. Handily, Shore have also been given the real numbers we want to know:

Revenue decreased by 8% (-11% organic, split equally volume and price with +3% from acquisitions

It's a freely accessible note, but in principle, we don't like the idea that a company only communicates the key information that investors need to know to make an informed decision via the brokers. In light of the volume down by 5.5%, this is a pretty good margin performance, helped by higher-margin manufacturing, which is growing as a proportion of revenue. You have to wonder how long margins can hold up against volume declines, though. Shore are forecasting no real growth over the five-year period to 2026. This gives ammunition to both the bulls and the bears.

The bears will point out that a P/E of 9.6 looks high for a company unable to generate any organic growth over the medium term, that has just warned on profits. Particularly in the current market where many companies that aren’t growing EPS rapidly or have warned look even cheaper. The bulls will point out the longer-term success story and say that these figures won’t include anything for acquisitions that could be funded from free cash flow.

Perhaps the reality is somewhere in between and the market has priced this one about right for the moment. At least until there is a clearer picture of whether this warning is the start of a negative trend or if acquisitions will prove current forecasts too conservative."

[hardupfedup] 12/8/2024 12:19

im in - small position

[cockerhoop] 10/7/2024 10:34

Looks a decent quality acq, did £1.86m pbt in 2022 (so 2023 slightly lower). The management narrative also suggests they've been very progressive with turnover per employee improved from £103k in 2019 to £181k in 2022.

[nchanning] 10/7/2024 09:28

Well done on the small acquisition , would love them to get even more aggressive at the bottom of the cycle. Don't seem to have the stomach for buybacks so at least 1 more acquisition before the interest rate cycle turns would be ideal . This is a very stable business , can easily take a couple of turns of debt . Might be the best buying opportunity of a generation in the UK (and Germany )

[nchanning] 23/5/2024 10:02

Would be a great time for an acquisition to be announced just as the UK economy and manufacturing in particular is turning up . Plenty of dry powder ...

[pireric] 29/3/2024 17:27

Good to see some more sustained interest in MACF over past months

Eric

[bsdjj] 17/3/2024 15:29

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mailplus/article-13204473/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-UPDATE-Market-leader-Macfarlane-stays-ahead-pack.html

[nchanning] 13/3/2024 12:07

It's really hard to lose making acquisitions at this price . Perhaps there are not enough left in the UK to use all of the cashflow, but Germany offers a new pipeline . After the economic brutality of the last couple of years perhaps there will be a few more vendors around in the UK anyway

[cwa1] 11/12/2023 10:35

Double apologies here, as EC says it was McBride(up 10%) rather than Macfarlane that was mentioned in SCSW tipsheet. Mixed up my MACS, sorry! As I said, back to sleep now...

[effortless cool] 11/12/2023 08:50

That was McBride (MCB), which has had a good morning!

[cwa1] 11/12/2023 08:35

Saw a poster over on Stockopedia saying that it was tipped by SCSW(NAP for next year or something similar) but if this is the type of response that engenders then it's not exactly price moving!

[effortless cool] 11/12/2023 08:24

I didn't know whether to be excited or alarmed .... and then it opened flat!