Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Macfarlane Group Plc LSE:MACF London Ordinary Share GB0005518872 ORD 25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -4.00 -3.88% 99.00 190,301 16:35:15
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
99.00 104.00 107.50 98.40 101.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 230.03 13.00 6.45 15.3 156
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:15 UT 852 99.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
05/3/202114:15Macfarlane Group - The Long Story327
31/3/201508:06Macfarlane - a company at the crossroads1,041
06/8/200718:16Serious Director Buying442
13/5/200610:39Macfarlane tipped in the FT(Lex)123

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Macfarlane Daily Update: Macfarlane Group Plc is listed in the Support Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MACF. The last closing price for Macfarlane was 103p.
Macfarlane Group Plc has a 4 week average price of 82.20p and a 12 week average price of 82.20p.
The 1 year high share price is 107.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 61p.
There are currently 157,812,000 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 410,440 shares. The market capitalisation of Macfarlane Group Plc is £156,233,880.
effortless cool: Header updated with latest projections and copied below. MACF released their FY 2020 results on 25 February and then announced the acquisition of GWP Group on 1 March. These projections reflect both of those announcements. The results were, in my view, superb, beating my forecasts and also beating broker forecasts by a greater margin. After dropping against the prior period in H1, second half revenues proved resilient in the face of COVID, being 6% higher than 2019 H2. Gross margin in packaging improved from 31.1% to 32.5% and in manufacturing from 32.2% to 32.7%. The adjusted admin expense ratio, by contrast, increased from 22.2% to 23.4%. However, this was hit in 2020 by three (hopefully) one-off factors: COVID safety preparations, provisions for bad debt provisions and end of lease provisions. MACF is a cash-generating machine, and FY profits of £13.0m translated to a remarkable £23.3m of net cash from operating activities. This facilitated the repayment of £10.2m of debt, shrinking the net debt position down to just £0.5m. Further, unlike many companies with pension deficits, MACF's clever use of liability-driven investment funds meant their deficit actually shrunk materially in 2020 to just £1.5m. The icing on the cake here is that they have agreed with the trustees that deficit repayments will now reduce from £3.1m per annum to £1.3m, which will improve future cash flows for shareholders materially. The acquisition is also very good news. Unusually, it is of a manufacturing business, rather than a packaging distribution one. What makes it particularly interesting is its scale - £13.2m revenue in the year to September 2020 - and its excellent performance - 43.8% gross margin and 13.1% operating margin - both far better than MACF's current manufacturing businesses. The efficiencies from potential horizontal and vertical integration, plus the additional scale, should bring significant operational gearing benefits. My revised forecasts are (no broker forecasts available to me yet): # Revenue: .............. 2021 £253.8m (£xxx.xm), 2022 £263.0m (£xxx.xm) # Reported net profit: .. 2021 £14.0m (£xx.xm) .. 2022 £16.4m (£xx.xm) # Adjusted net profit: .. 2021 £16.3m (£xx.xm) .. 2022 £18.4m (£xx.xm) # Reported EPS: ......... 2021 8.89p ............ 2022 10.39p # Adjusted EPS: ......... 2021 10.35p (xx.xxp) .. 2022 11.66p (xx.xxp) # DPS: .................. 2021 2.75p (x.xxp) .... 2022 2.95p (x.xxp) # Net cash/(debt): ...... 2021 -£5.2m (£-x.xm) .. 2022 £1.1m (£x.xm) # Pension surplus: ...... 2021 £14.7m (£x.xm) ... 2022 £23.2m (£x.xm) (Adjusted figures add back amortised intangibles) My target adjusted PE ratio increases to 13.5x (85% of the market median) and my valuation increases to 147.7p (was 112.3p), which includes adjustment for the pension deficit, net debt and outstanding options. Even after the recent rise, this target price represents a 43% premium to the latest closing price of 103.0p. On that basis, MACF becomes a STRONG BUY for me. This may seem aggressive, but the model is consistent with previous iterations and it does seem to me that finally the stars are aligned for MACF to deliver big time. I have put my money where my mouth is and increased my holding to 400,000 shares at an average of 67.06p. Dividends to date: £23.2k.
greggphilips88: Positive write up today on MACF results by Paul Scott in Stockopedia's Small Cap Value Report. In summary: "Overall, this share gets a thumbs up from me. It looks a decent, resilient business, and is attractively priced".
illiswilgig: Yes Excellent results. And under the circumstances even better than that. At H1 sales were down 2% over previous year. H2 sales look to have been up around 6% in comparison with previous year. If I've read it correctly - according to the Nov trading statement they were up 4% in the first 4 months of H2 - so it looks like they have continued to build into last 2 months, despite the november lockdown. Which seems a good sign to me for current trading being continuing to grow. With increased cash flowing into the coffers they should be able to make an acquisition or two - if they find one at the right price - without increasing debt by much. A good position to be in for continued outperformance in this FY. Share price, even with 10% uplift this morning, remains very modest on 11x current year forecasts. Should be an upgrade to profits forecasts which may bring this onto more radar screens? Accordingly I've bought a few more on top of my core holding, cheers
effortless cool: Quality At [a] Reasonable Price!
effortless cool: Well, at least I called this right!
effortless cool: I've invested some more family funds in MACF today. We're getting parcels delivered every day and our recycling bin is stuffed full of used packaging each week. It's hard to imagine that MACF cannot be thriving in this environment and I don't see things changing drastically post-pandemic.
effortless cool: This is getting stupid now! I have put a smallish buy order in at 86p, which is the level at which this becomes a 'strong buy' under my valuation methodology (market price >=30% below my valuation).
effortless cool: Header updated to reflect today's update and revised broker forecasts. Material broker upgrades have brought their income statement forecasts much closer to mine. They are now materially more optimistic than me on net debt/cash, however, bringing an upside to my forecasts. Given the sizeable broker upgrades today, I was surprised by the drop in price.
cravencottage: Cheers I've owned shares in MPAC before and look forward to reading what they have to say. I watched a Piworld webinar recently with Richard Leonard and he was extremely bullish on MACF and seems convinced BNZL will come in for them at some stage. I guess if you look at the earnings ratios they would seem a good fit.
tomps2: MACF mentioned by Richard Leonard's piworld interview yesterday (with Andy Brough and Richard), see at 10m19 Https://
Macfarlane share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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