M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 11/9/2023 17:15

Even an optimist would see a 75% upside as stretching credulity. A slow rise back to a tenner would be a more reasonable target I would have thought.
A single product company predominantly from a single country is inevitably more vulnerable to commodity price variation and political intervention, but also more chance of bigger gains. Happy to hold .

[chillpill] 11/9/2023 08:15

A solid set of results imo. Cavendish (revamped finnCap) have maintained 1300p price target.

[ntv] 11/9/2023 07:34

Happy to hold but does the the market like it. We will soon find out

[ntv] 11/9/2023 07:32

318k of crop processed since the half year end
Keeping that going at that rate will probably be difficult but it does bode well for the FY results and as the new plantations bought come of age then they should be able increase production
Mills running at a fixed cost so the more that goes through them the lower cost per tonne
Price of CPO not that great at the moment but if production costs are coming down that should help offset CPO price

[chillpill] 10/9/2023 09:26

Apologies. You are correct.

[forensic] 08/9/2023 16:27

chillpill - 15% not 30% I calculate

[wad collector] 07/9/2023 16:40

PO prices may be low compared with 2022 prices , but that year was unusual, and this year the Rotterdam 870 to 1130 range is still substantially higher than the 5 yr average before the pandemic of $600 , even allowing for inflation.

[herbert0] 07/9/2023 10:45

I don't think the interims later this month will be so good. But it is better to buy now when prices of oil are slightly depressed. Should be good for the long term

[chillpill] 07/9/2023 08:56

It seems a good deal, increasing area by around 30%. The question I guess we have to ask is whether a valuation of US$20,700/ha is realistic when they have just picked up an immature plantation for US$9k?

It doesn’t really bother me as I have bought shares for future cash flows and not for the sale of the business.

[ntv] 26/7/2023 09:13

Interesting level2 again today
A seller @10 next one is 44. I wonder why that is !!!!!

[1c3479z] 24/7/2023 17:36

is the cpo price rise something to do with Putin's attempts to stop sunflower oil exports and grain from Ukraine?

[ntv] 24/7/2023 16:22

Price of CPO has soared over the last few weeks and now well above the $1000 mark
Profits should recover quickly if it stays up here

[forensic] 24/7/2023 14:22

Substantial buying today

[coolen] 20/7/2023 13:31

Is the sector also under pressure from an Odey overhang in REA ?

[ntv] 20/7/2023 08:40

price of PO was $965 on the 18th and has been slowly climbing since so price is up along way from the lows

[pugugly] 20/7/2023 08:09

Massive hit to prices received - otherwise looks OK production-wise.

[ntv] 20/7/2023 07:36

update looks similar to 1st half of 21 assuming for price inflation

[galeforce1] 19/7/2023 10:35

Could there be another reason for this sharp fall, apart from the idea that we have a forced seller in Odey Asset management?

Is the Palm Oil price falling, for instance? Has there been terrible weather?

I'm tempted to add more. This definitely looks like an opportunity.

[mcmather] 19/7/2023 08:38

RNS 16 June 2022 re the Share buyback programme the share price hit 970 that day*. 13 months later it has just hit 656. Maybe time for a re-think?

* "The Board continues to believe that the current share price undervalues the Group's assets".

[coolen] 12/7/2023 19:53

Wonder what KLK, previous tentative bidder, is thinking ?

[galeforce1] 12/7/2023 16:14

Interesting idea, that there's a forced seller pushing down teh share price. It's certainly fallen a long way on no obvious bad news.

Eventually it I bound to be bought out at £10+ a share, IMO.

Like you I have added a few.

[chillpill] 03/7/2023 08:49

Odey Asset Management held 100k shares in both AEP and MPE. I expect it is them causing the price weakness in both.

I have decided to pick up a modest holding in both as I like buying deeply discounted assets.

[nobull] 23/6/2023 13:06

The risk free rate of interest, a component for discounting the future profit stream, has risen recently (the yield on 5 year gilts?); the palm oil price curve is broadly flat, giving a not so great palm oil price outlook (a price outlook, a few hundred dollars above their production cost?); and the average age of the oil palms is increasing while only small scale extension planting is to be carried out.

I think the dividend cover will drop quite a bit if the dividend is maintained, which I expect it to be, (lower capex going forward will still mean a healthy cash flow coming in, I wonder?), so maybe this is good buying opportunity to bet on a better price outlook occurring to that implied by the palm oil price curve and to the published intentions on extension planting, but WDIK? Nothing. This might just be a great entry price to get in - I can't see anything to be alarmed about by the falling share price - it's a well-run company and it is making good capital allocation decisions (the buy-backs below DCF value, athough that itself is falling due to the strengthening of the £ against the $).

It is a relatively low risk company (that is, if you are already comfortable with investing in SE Asia) for its Stockopedia risk rating dropped recently one notch from "adventurous" to "balanced" so you don't expect to make a fortune overnight on such a stock, but get the entry price right and you should make a reasonable return for the risk taken, I wonder, over the long term? (Think: compounding your money at 12% with a fair amount of share price volatility in some years?) The company has net cash, which it spends wisely. AEP has too much and doesn't spend it (it has 5 timesed the div and claims to want to do share buybacks, but its cash pile is still obscene). REA has net debt and a higher cost of production, so is more risky. Getting rich slowly with MPE (if you get the entry price right) bores some people to death, so it won't be everybody's cup of tea. JMV.