M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[nobull] 10/6/2021 12:59

You were right about eps rocketing in the future: I see they gave a conservative illustration at $600 CPO price (presumably an ex-mill gate price) leading to 81p eps in 2024. If you assume no further significant growth in eps after 2024 and you require a 12% earnings yield just for being in this kind of business in Indonesia, then that generates a price target of £6.75 (PE of 8.33). Of course if eps are going to continue growing after 2024, then the PE ratio will be a lot higher than 8.33. Hopefully, they will acquire more land near Simpang Kiri, build a new mill there, and more importantly get the extension planting done at Musi Rawas. If they do all the right things, growth wise, then a higher PE in 2024 would give a much more decent price target e.g. 14 x 81p = £11.34p. JMV.

[oli12] 04/6/2021 09:00

AGM next week - Hopefully a YTD update: based on the record Palm oil price and the anticipated crop growth, MPE should be on for a very good year.

[nobull] 21/4/2021 19:19

4,394 ringgit a tonne for the May CPO contract at that time, so a way to go yet, perhaps another $100, before the Rotterdam CPO price can overcome that US$1300 price barrier where the export levy and export tax cease to rise any further. I make the average CPO price this year, net of export levy and export tax, about $762, which gives an ex mill gate price of, say, $712, if the freight and insurance to Rotterdam is, say, $50. The significance is we are in for another bumper year of high eps, eps propelled not just by higher volumes of cpo production but also by an average cpo price a bit higher than that obtained in FY2020. Hopefully all this will be confirmed in the H1 2021 results. Edit 22 04 21: Nothing to get excited about - yesterday's May cpo price rise was probably to accommodate the higher export tax coming into force in May, I wonder? Sorry I didn't realise that yesterday. This is a good web site to see palm oil prices out into the future. Out of date spot prices can be found elsewhere. hxxps://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/derivatives_prices?code=FCPO

[nocton] 21/4/2021 13:15

What does that mean, nobull?

[nobull] 21/4/2021 08:13

Front month up 163 ringgit 2:49 p.m. in KL today.

[oli12] 13/4/2021 15:34

Another 1% to KLK ? Let’s see.

[oli12] 30/3/2021 19:24

Let’s see, maybe they are just biding their time.

[nobull] 30/3/2021 17:00

My guess is KLK will time it all to start after April 5th and to finish quick enough so they get to stop us getting the June dividend. With an average entry price of £6.69, it doesn't bear thinking about what price my relative needs to compensate for the unwanted CGT bill and for the loss of BPR. The CGT death price uplift makes paying CGT when you are very elderly stupid.

[oli12] 30/3/2021 12:07

Following KLK’s increased holdings I took the opportunity to see what KLK offered several years ago. In 2017 KLK offered 740, the number of shares in issue remains pretty much the same, 41% of holders rejected the offer in 2017. (KLK’s first offer was 640 rejected by 55% of holders). I feel it’s only a matter of time before KLK come back to the table. I am here for the dividends, long term holders should see significant payouts over the next 5-8 years, as investments deliver increased crop yield and reduced production costs, let’s hope we get to enjoy it.

[oli12] 25/3/2021 12:24

So it was KLK, just biding their time.

[nobull] 24/3/2021 20:47

The onus seems to be on the stake builder to disclose a notifiable interest rather than on the company itself. There is a new procedure on filling in TR1 forms - I think it is all online now, and the forms maybe go direct to the FCA...maybe it is to toughen up on rule breakers. Same problem at REA - large sales last year and no stake change declarations, or if there were TR1 notifications, they were many months after the event. M&G have a reputation for getting things right and pulling out of companies that don't perform. Will find out if they were selling when the 2020 Annual Report is released.

[oli12] 24/3/2021 15:42

Unsure how we managed to get 2 new institutional holders each with + 3% without any announcement. Same goes for SL reducing their holding.

[oli12] 24/3/2021 14:57

All valid points. Happy to pocket the dividend for the next 5 years - not an inconsiderable amount all things considered.

[nobull] 24/3/2021 12:57

Oli, hi I disagree slightly. I think the 222% increase in eps yesterday (or maybe it is the Finncap calculated 43% rise in adjusted eps that is more relevant) has been largely dissipated driving down the PE ratio to more normal levels than driving the share price up. More flat lining for a year and maybe only then will eps growth start driving up the share price, I wonder? A bid or surprise profits from the property division could make my expectations wrong! We'll see. The dividend rise was a nice surprise. The £3m could be one of our new institutional shareholders, I wonder? I hope it isn't KLK. The new 2021 forecasts of around 50 cents eps maybe give a forward PE of about 16 or an earnings yield of 6%. Finncap have a morning note out for yesterday and there is a write-up in IC. Edit: lol, MPE shoots up to 670p right after posting this!

[oli12] 23/3/2021 14:46

SP performance indicates the lack of appetite for Palm Oil stocks in general. Someone in for 3m worth - probs KLK - biding their time.

[nobull] 23/3/2021 08:21

Having too much cash is bad - it dilutes the ROCE. The shocking thing about AEP is it didn't even bother to buy back its own shares for cancellation during the pandemic. I assume AEP has a good reason for holding so much cash and paying such a low dividend, but the longer the situation persists, the harder it is to believe it has a good reason. If you switch to AEP, you need the mind set of a fakir lying on a bed of nails - that it is all for good in the end. The good thing about AEP is they appear to be doing extension planting (replacement planting no good?). JMV. Today's lacklustre MPE share price performance on results ahead of expectations is a shock.

[bubloo] 23/3/2021 08:19

should have been aep and ape

[oli12] 23/3/2021 08:12

A high-functioning sociopath.

[bubloo] 23/3/2021 07:53

why is there a huge difference between AEP and ape valuations. Amp have about 90 million cash at June 2020 and now probably have more. They seem to be double the production and turnover of app. Any thoughts from investors who know more about the numbers. Sine my last post I have a small holding here and hoping for some price action due top dividend I am contemplating switching to AEP at some stage. would that be a wise move?

[volsung] 23/3/2021 07:30

What kind of sociopath invests in Indonesian palm oil plantations?

[oli12] 23/3/2021 07:27

Good numbers and a very positive outlook.

[oli12] 21/3/2021 18:59

FY results due 23/03/2021 - the numbers should make pleasant reading given the prevailing CPO price in H2. Interested to hear more about the impact of the revised Indonesian export levy and expectations for the coming year. CPO price remains strong.

[oli12] 19/2/2021 16:07

MPE’s has a very young crop, volumes and sales should be on an upwards trajectory over the next few years as the crop matures / yield increases. Estates become more profitable and cash generative as they reach maturity. I don’t believe the share price reflects what we have. Let’s see, the recent changes to the Indonesian CPO levy don’t help either.