M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 19/3/2023 10:28

Finals Tuesday.

[wad collector] 16/2/2023 17:21

NEW MILL IN SOUTH SUMATRA

The board of M.P. Evans, the producer of sustainable palm oil, is pleased to announce that the Group's sixth palm-oil mill has now been commissioned at its Musi Rawas estate in South Sumatra.

This 60-tonne-per-hour facility is now processing all the fresh fruit bunches ("ffb") from the Group's own areas and those of its associated scheme smallholders. The Group expects to be able to increase oil-extraction rates by utilising this new mill rather than sending crop to third-party mills.

The Group will work towards receiving certification from the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil ("RSPO") for the new mill as soon as possible. This will help to increase further the Group's total percentage of certified sustainable production. Group and associated scheme-smallholder crops are continuing to increase significantly at Musi Rawas as the young areas mature, and planting is continuing in 2023 as the Group progresses towards its initial target of 10,000 planted hectares of Group and associated scheme-smallholder oil palm. In addition, the Group will look for profitable opportunities to source ffb from independent suppliers close to Musi Rawas to utilise spare capacity at its new mill, in the same way that it has successfully purchased independent crop at its existing mills.

[wad collector] 16/1/2023 22:04

Indeed, some rather good numbers there.

Unintended consequences....

Here is an update on the palm oil export ban effects.

Edible oils current situation
Indonesia removed the palm oil export ban less than a full month after it shocked global markets.

As other countries, such as Malaysia, took advantage of the export ban to increase their trading efforts, prices for palm oil deflated swiftly.

After Indonesian palm oil returned to markets, prices for the commodity collapsed. FAO’s vegetable oil index is at March 2021 levels, with the commodity dropping almost 40% in price.

This has prompted Indonesia to increase its biofuel mix to 35% to try to burn as much palm oil as possible as the country’s reserves are too high and higher prices will benefit the country’s exports.

[pillion] 16/1/2023 10:03

Baik sekali

[nocton] 18/9/2022 16:27

Actually, Deadly, a palm oil plantation absorbs as much if not more CO2 than rain forest. Not surprising if you think about it as it is a tree crop photosynthesising all-year round managed to produce as big a crop as possible.

I agree with nobull, Indonesia and, particularly, Malaysia have done a reasonable job in conserving rain forest, much better than Africa and South America. Without palm oil, many people in the world would starve and the EU's 5% biodiesel programme would be impossible as it is equivalent to using the whole veg oil output from the EU for fuel instead of food. And compare the biodiversity of a rapeseed field (almost zero) to that of a palm plantation (~40% of the original rain forest and much higher than any temperate-climate forest). The prejudice against PO is just rich people's hypocrisy while they continue to fly and drive big cars, while poor Indonesians are expected to keep cycling. [I worked in the veg oil industry for over 40 years, 4 years in Malaysia, so I do know something about the matter.]

[wad collector] 18/9/2022 13:38

Tipped in IC this week as a BUY at 818p citing the strong price rises and the milling independency.
That said, they tipped in march at 996p.

[nobull] 16/9/2022 14:26

MP Evans does not cut down high carbon content forests. Your target should be Bolsonaro and the conversion of Amazonian forest land into beef cattle pasture: methane is about a 25 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, and oil palms probably absorb CO2, and MPE even captures methane from the decomposition of its left-overs to make electricity.

MPE gets a premium for producing palm oil in a sustainable way and MPE pays for schools, clinics, etc. and earns valuable forex for the Indonesian economy as well as contributing huge tax revenues and keeping thousands of people in productive work.

Emotive photos of distressed orangutans being displaced have their uses in helping to protect the European vegetable oil market from cheaper competing vegetable oils and help garner sales for Iceland Food's offerings that its CEO is ever keen to emphasise are free of palm oil, pandering to popular perceptions. My idea of sustainably produced palm oil is not one of displacing orangutans or reducing CO2 absorption compared to what occurred before on the same land.

The outlook is disappointing despite the huge dividend increase (which I am grateful for but not starry eyed about), and the outlook could be improved if they finish the extension planting quickly; only then will the dividend rise be justified in my view, a view that seems supported by the flat lining share price since the results. The low historic PE probably just reflects an expected fall in competing vegetable oil prices (when the Ukraine war is finished, maybe next year?)and the rising stocks of palm oil, I wonder? JMV.

[deadly] 16/9/2022 08:16

The slow rate of extension planting is good for the planet as less rainforest is being cut down, though still too much.

[nobull] 13/9/2022 13:13

Forensic, today's presentation was very good. The export tariff of $200 per tonne (an absolutely outrageous method of wealth redistribution, coming on top of an export levy and a wretched export tax) was apparently dropped from the end of July.

With an ex-mill gate price of around $750 at present and production costs of about $450 a tonne, things may be aren't so bad as I thought. Also, full year unit production costs will be lower than H1's (some costs will be diluted against higher volumes in H2?).

The buy backs are a no-brainer and are probably a better asset allocation decision than making acquisitions with a hurdle rate of 12%, I wonder? If the £ falls any further against the $, the analysts' consensus eps target for 2022 of £1.34p could be hit, I suppose, but I am not counting on it, and definitely not on achieving 10,000 hectares of extension planting on Musi Rawas by May 2023. I will have to eat humble pie if they achieve all this!

And "How on earth are these results disappointing?" I look forward; the results were mostly ancient history: the outlook was disappointing at the time I wrote that, especially the slow rate of extension planting.

[forensic] 13/9/2022 09:04

How on earth are these results disappointing? The shares are trading on a very cheap PE ratio, and long term growth story. Interim dividend increased by 25%!

[wad collector] 12/9/2022 12:19

I think they feel obligated to continue the progressive dividend policy. As to forecasting, the problem is , like any arable business, the unpredictability of weather , prices and politics.

[nobull] 12/9/2022 07:02

Disappointing results, but still one of the safest and best AIM listed companies to hold. I don't get the optimism for the dividend increase, what with the excessive levels of taxation and slow planting and rise in production costs and the mega falls in the CPO price for H2. I can't see how the eps forecast of 134p could be achieved for FY2022 - more likely the forecast will be reduced. Happy to hold despite today's results (a lot of things are not the BoD's fault).

[wad collector] 11/9/2022 08:34

Interims tomorrow. Anglo Eastern Plantations had some good numbers last week (Though they are partly rubber)

[mcmather] 06/9/2022 21:36

Start of the climb back towards 1000?

[jqb1] 22/7/2022 06:58

It's a shambles, they are a good business, but they are at the mercy of the government and Palm oil prices, which are reverting to historical levels.

[nobull] 21/7/2022 07:47

"In the period to the end of June 2022, the Group realised an average price at mill gate of US$1,035 per tonne compared with US$724 in the first half of 2021, an increase of 43%. Prices for palm kernels averaged US$830 per tonne (mill gate), higher than the US$491 per tonne in 2021."



All good reasons for the shares to go back over £10, except for what has happened since the H1 end: July has been terrible month what with the way the Indonesian Government has been overtaxing us (the sky-high reference price when the cpo price was massively lower).

The cure for high prices is high prices, not taxing the hell out of us. Lower cooking oil prices could have been subsidised out of general taxation.




Using today's £/$ rate of 1.19937, the FY2022 eps forecast in US$ would be 157.585 cents, which is not a 17% decline in eps as shown.

[nobull] 22/6/2022 07:29

After the recent cpo price falls (including today on the futures market), I won't be surprised if there is yet again another change in the export regulations that reduces the export deductions (currently $688 of deductions if you add the new export tariff on to export levy and export tax). Surely they've got reasonable domestic cooking oil prices now? All these deductions affect the price smallholders get for their ffb, so the Indonesian government can't just try to please cooking oil consumers all the time, at our expense, I wonder?

[wad collector] 21/6/2022 22:00

So the Indonesian Govt, realising that the business cannot be moved , now has the exporters by the balls and will start to squeeze the tax/levy until they sell up to a local company, probably owned by their own families. They won't care about driving out foreign investment because they can run the business better themselves...
Time for some serious backhanders ?

[c3479z] 21/6/2022 18:51

expect they may now regret selling out of Malaysia becoming almost completely dependent on Indonesia.

[niklol] 21/6/2022 11:29

I just read that it is all to do with export duties etc ...

[bangersnsmash] 21/6/2022 11:11

what do they sell? is it palm oil? try checking the futures as that will give you an idea about what happens when the price of onions goes down

[niklol] 21/6/2022 10:24

Any idea why this big drop today???

[battyliveson] 10/6/2022 06:46

Positive age update and increasing divi. Helpful in these volatile times.

I will continue to hold, if for income alone.

B

[ntv] 26/5/2022 07:44

Spread gone to 50p
seems a bit weird