M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[ntv] 22/6/2023 12:29

Anyone know the reason for this falling off a cliff considering their record

[pugugly] 02/6/2023 18:42

From Daily Mail today - Possibly share price much further to fall
"
Vegetable oil prices have dropped the most over the past year, or by 48 per cent, with a decline of 9 per cent in the last month, reflecting lower world prices for palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils. "

[pugugly] 02/6/2023 17:25

Market reaction looks as though nobull post 389 may be correct - How much further to fall?

See IC (otherwise known as Kiss of Death) Tipped 24th March so a fall of 77p or 42p if dividend added back,

[wad collector] 22/4/2023 12:31

Xd 35p this week.

[markatkinson] 29/3/2023 07:18

A podcast I have just recorded with my very dear friend Paul Kerin on my reasons for adding MP Evans to my portfolio -

[wad collector] 24/3/2023 14:51

Tipped in IC today FWIW.

[tresham] 21/3/2023 09:48

I expect the above forecasts are quite wrong and the new forecasts will be higher profits for 2023 and 2024, perhaps 5-8% more.

[wad collector] 19/3/2023 10:28

Finals Tuesday.

[wad collector] 16/2/2023 17:21

NEW MILL IN SOUTH SUMATRA

The board of M.P. Evans, the producer of sustainable palm oil, is pleased to announce that the Group's sixth palm-oil mill has now been commissioned at its Musi Rawas estate in South Sumatra.

This 60-tonne-per-hour facility is now processing all the fresh fruit bunches ("ffb") from the Group's own areas and those of its associated scheme smallholders. The Group expects to be able to increase oil-extraction rates by utilising this new mill rather than sending crop to third-party mills.

The Group will work towards receiving certification from the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil ("RSPO") for the new mill as soon as possible. This will help to increase further the Group's total percentage of certified sustainable production. Group and associated scheme-smallholder crops are continuing to increase significantly at Musi Rawas as the young areas mature, and planting is continuing in 2023 as the Group progresses towards its initial target of 10,000 planted hectares of Group and associated scheme-smallholder oil palm. In addition, the Group will look for profitable opportunities to source ffb from independent suppliers close to Musi Rawas to utilise spare capacity at its new mill, in the same way that it has successfully purchased independent crop at its existing mills.

[wad collector] 16/1/2023 22:04

Indeed, some rather good numbers there.

Unintended consequences....

Here is an update on the palm oil export ban effects.

Edible oils current situation
Indonesia removed the palm oil export ban less than a full month after it shocked global markets.

As other countries, such as Malaysia, took advantage of the export ban to increase their trading efforts, prices for palm oil deflated swiftly.

After Indonesian palm oil returned to markets, prices for the commodity collapsed. FAO’s vegetable oil index is at March 2021 levels, with the commodity dropping almost 40% in price.

This has prompted Indonesia to increase its biofuel mix to 35% to try to burn as much palm oil as possible as the country’s reserves are too high and higher prices will benefit the country’s exports.

[pillion] 16/1/2023 10:03

Baik sekali

[nocton] 18/9/2022 17:27

Actually, Deadly, a palm oil plantation absorbs as much if not more CO2 than rain forest. Not surprising if you think about it as it is a tree crop photosynthesising all-year round managed to produce as big a crop as possible.

I agree with nobull, Indonesia and, particularly, Malaysia have done a reasonable job in conserving rain forest, much better than Africa and South America. Without palm oil, many people in the world would starve and the EU's 5% biodiesel programme would be impossible as it is equivalent to using the whole veg oil output from the EU for fuel instead of food. And compare the biodiversity of a rapeseed field (almost zero) to that of a palm plantation (~40% of the original rain forest and much higher than any temperate-climate forest). The prejudice against PO is just rich people's hypocrisy while they continue to fly and drive big cars, while poor Indonesians are expected to keep cycling. [I worked in the veg oil industry for over 40 years, 4 years in Malaysia, so I do know something about the matter.]

[wad collector] 18/9/2022 14:38

Tipped in IC this week as a BUY at 818p citing the strong price rises and the milling independency.
That said, they tipped in march at 996p.

[nobull] 16/9/2022 15:26

MP Evans does not cut down high carbon content forests. Your target should be Bolsonaro and the conversion of Amazonian forest land into beef cattle pasture: methane is about a 25 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, and oil palms probably absorb CO2, and MPE even captures methane from the decomposition of its left-overs to make electricity.

MPE gets a premium for producing palm oil in a sustainable way and MPE pays for schools, clinics, etc. and earns valuable forex for the Indonesian economy as well as contributing huge tax revenues and keeping thousands of people in productive work.

Emotive photos of distressed orangutans being displaced have their uses in helping to protect the European vegetable oil market from cheaper competing vegetable oils and help garner sales for Iceland Food's offerings that its CEO is ever keen to emphasise are free of palm oil, pandering to popular perceptions. My idea of sustainably produced palm oil is not one of displacing orangutans or reducing CO2 absorption compared to what occurred before on the same land.

The outlook is disappointing despite the huge dividend increase (which I am grateful for but not starry eyed about), and the outlook could be improved if they finish the extension planting quickly; only then will the dividend rise be justified in my view, a view that seems supported by the flat lining share price since the results. The low historic PE probably just reflects an expected fall in competing vegetable oil prices (when the Ukraine war is finished, maybe next year?)and the rising stocks of palm oil, I wonder? JMV.

[deadly] 16/9/2022 09:16

The slow rate of extension planting is good for the planet as less rainforest is being cut down, though still too much.

[nobull] 13/9/2022 14:13

Forensic, today's presentation was very good. The export tariff of $200 per tonne (an absolutely outrageous method of wealth redistribution, coming on top of an export levy and a wretched export tax) was apparently dropped from the end of July.

With an ex-mill gate price of around $750 at present and production costs of about $450 a tonne, things may be aren't so bad as I thought. Also, full year unit production costs will be lower than H1's (some costs will be diluted against higher volumes in H2?).

The buy backs are a no-brainer and are probably a better asset allocation decision than making acquisitions with a hurdle rate of 12%, I wonder? If the £ falls any further against the $, the analysts' consensus eps target for 2022 of £1.34p could be hit, I suppose, but I am not counting on it, and definitely not on achieving 10,000 hectares of extension planting on Musi Rawas by May 2023. I will have to eat humble pie if they achieve all this!

And "How on earth are these results disappointing?" I look forward; the results were mostly ancient history: the outlook was disappointing at the time I wrote that, especially the slow rate of extension planting.

[forensic] 13/9/2022 10:04

How on earth are these results disappointing? The shares are trading on a very cheap PE ratio, and long term growth story. Interim dividend increased by 25%!

[wad collector] 12/9/2022 13:19

I think they feel obligated to continue the progressive dividend policy. As to forecasting, the problem is , like any arable business, the unpredictability of weather , prices and politics.

[nobull] 12/9/2022 08:02

Disappointing results, but still one of the safest and best AIM listed companies to hold. I don't get the optimism for the dividend increase, what with the excessive levels of taxation and slow planting and rise in production costs and the mega falls in the CPO price for H2. I can't see how the eps forecast of 134p could be achieved for FY2022 - more likely the forecast will be reduced. Happy to hold despite today's results (a lot of things are not the BoD's fault).

[wad collector] 11/9/2022 09:34

Interims tomorrow. Anglo Eastern Plantations had some good numbers last week (Though they are partly rubber)

[mcmather] 06/9/2022 22:36

Start of the climb back towards 1000?

[jqb1] 22/7/2022 07:58

It's a shambles, they are a good business, but they are at the mercy of the government and Palm oil prices, which are reverting to historical levels.