M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[nobull] 21/7/2022 08:47

"In the period to the end of June 2022, the Group realised an average price at mill gate of US$1,035 per tonne compared with US$724 in the first half of 2021, an increase of 43%. Prices for palm kernels averaged US$830 per tonne (mill gate), higher than the US$491 per tonne in 2021."



All good reasons for the shares to go back over £10, except for what has happened since the H1 end: July has been terrible month what with the way the Indonesian Government has been overtaxing us (the sky-high reference price when the cpo price was massively lower).

The cure for high prices is high prices, not taxing the hell out of us. Lower cooking oil prices could have been subsidised out of general taxation.




Using today's £/$ rate of 1.19937, the FY2022 eps forecast in US$ would be 157.585 cents, which is not a 17% decline in eps as shown.

[nobull] 22/6/2022 08:29

After the recent cpo price falls (including today on the futures market), I won't be surprised if there is yet again another change in the export regulations that reduces the export deductions (currently $688 of deductions if you add the new export tariff on to export levy and export tax). Surely they've got reasonable domestic cooking oil prices now? All these deductions affect the price smallholders get for their ffb, so the Indonesian government can't just try to please cooking oil consumers all the time, at our expense, I wonder?

[wad collector] 21/6/2022 23:00

So the Indonesian Govt, realising that the business cannot be moved , now has the exporters by the balls and will start to squeeze the tax/levy until they sell up to a local company, probably owned by their own families. They won't care about driving out foreign investment because they can run the business better themselves...
Time for some serious backhanders ?

[c3479z] 21/6/2022 19:51

expect they may now regret selling out of Malaysia becoming almost completely dependent on Indonesia.

[niklol] 21/6/2022 12:29

I just read that it is all to do with export duties etc ...

[bangersnsmash] 21/6/2022 12:11

what do they sell? is it palm oil? try checking the futures as that will give you an idea about what happens when the price of onions goes down

[niklol] 21/6/2022 11:24

Any idea why this big drop today???

[battyliveson] 10/6/2022 07:46

Positive age update and increasing divi. Helpful in these volatile times.

I will continue to hold, if for income alone.

B

[ntv] 26/5/2022 08:44

Spread gone to 50p
seems a bit weird

[pcuser] 20/5/2022 11:55

www.thewest.com.au/business/indonesia-to-end-palm-oil-export-ban-c-6865373

"On Tuesday, hundreds of small palm oil farmers rallied in several cities, demanding the government end the ban."

:D

[tigerbythetail] 19/5/2022 12:24

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/indonesia-lifts-palm-oil-export-ban-in-relief-to-global-market

Indonesian export ban lifted - good news!

[tigerbythetail] 29/4/2022 12:00

Hi WSkill!
AEP has been trading in London since 1985.
It seems a it extreme to write them off because of their broker. I can barely name a broker with a clean record.

[wskill] 29/4/2022 11:38

I see manure gordon is the broker in AEP it looks very good the 2021 result but I remember the Chinese rubbish they brought to the market a good few years ago they also had huge amounts of cash on the balance sheets it all vanished in a puff of smoke.
For this reason I try and steer clear of any Manure Gordon brokered companies.

[tigerbythetail] 29/4/2022 09:34

For those interested, AEP's results for 2021 have just come out. IMO, they're excellent.

[ntv] 29/4/2022 08:25

The trouble is it won't really work as it will bought by organizations and stored for export via a black market that means the government will not receive a penny in tax.
Rationing would work and more tightly controlled domestic markets
I can't see those exporters suddenly dumping on the domestic market . wait a few weeks until export markets re open at the already climbing price
Storage will be in peak demand

[cwa1] 29/4/2022 07:17

INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES RESTRICTIONS TO PALM OIL EXPORTS


M.P.Evans Group PLC, a producer of sustainable Indonesian palm oil, notes the updated announcement made on 27 April by the Indonesian government of plans temporarily to ban exports of palm oil, including both crude palm oil and refined products, effective from 28 April, to protect domestic supply. Local demand for palm oil is expected to increase significantly for a short time over the Lebaran festival period, celebrated over the next seven to ten days.



The Indonesian government last month introduced a revised export levy to subsidise local supplies as global supplies of vegetable oil have been limited. Indonesia is the world's largest producer of palm oil and a significant consumer, accounting for 59% of global supply and 22% of global consumption in 2021.



Management continues to monitor the situation closely and awaits clarity from the Indonesian government regarding the length of the export ban and extent of its impact on the domestic market. The Company will provide further updates as appropriate.

[c3479z] 28/4/2022 20:10

according to rte, the export ban may be lifted in May after Ramadan but only if cooking oil prices drop very significantly in Indonesia as a result of the export ban. seems that the oil has been going for export rather which is more lucrative constraining supply to the domestic market where prices have been lower..

[nobull] 27/4/2022 12:12

Palm oil futures suddenly gone mad. June contract up 678 ringgit. That's a very sharp move all of a sudden. Maybe they've changed their mind and have really decided to ban CPO exports now!

[nocton] 27/4/2022 08:41

Since most of Indonesia's palm oil is exported, this export ban is about controlling local prices. In the past, Indonesia has levied export taxes to control local market prices and direct supply to local refiners. Unless Indonesians start to use more palm oil - unlikely - it can have no effect on palm oil supply and price except in the very short term.

[c3479z] 26/4/2022 22:19

indonesia produces about 56% and Malaysia just over a quarter so Indonesia export ban serious?

[wskill] 25/4/2022 13:51

So no ban on crude palm oil.