M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[galles] 13/9/2021 10:28

Agree. It's been many years in the waiting, that everything going in the right direction - CPO price, crop production, processing. Finally yielding investment on the crops and infrastructure. Would have hoped the dividend could have been higher but it's not a bad thing to be cautious

[nobull] 13/9/2021 06:15

Brilliant results. Doubled int div to 10p is unexpected (I was expecting 6p int + 24p final, although the 30p total div for FY 2021 is probably already priced in). The $738 8 month average ex mill gate price means my full year forecast above looks conservative. I expect Finncap will upgrade their eps forecast this morninng. Small share price rise maybe when market opens? Ex-mill gate price received last Tuesday would have been about $769 for example. CPO production for H1 was 161,400 tonnes against my estimate for full year of 340,000 tonnes, so 340,000 for full year looks possible, I wonder? The eps for H1 of 38.3p means most of the Full Year forecast eps has already been achieved! There is smallish backwardation on CPO prices for the remainder of the FY.

"In line with its growth programme, the Group plans to deliver ever-increasing returns to shareholders."

[nobull] 03/9/2021 14:34

Export tax has gone up three notches (from $93 to $166) but Palmoilanalytics.com says only two.

Ex-mill gate price was probably about $779 last Wednesday, the first day the new export tax level came into force. Can't see any reason why the above forecast for the full year will not be achieved,if not bettered. H1 results on 13/09/21, when I hope Finncap will upgrade their 52.5 cent eps forecast for 2021 to be more than mine. Fingers crossed.

[nobull] 09/8/2021 08:33

Brilliant announcement. That 81p eps imagined scenario in the company's June presentation (page 11) does not look so fanciful now. Of course it had no date on when it might occur; it was just trying to hint of things that might happen, right?

Well, with, say, 340,000 tonnes of CPO production for the full year (yes, I know H2 production exceeds H1, but I am just trying to be conservative in my forecast) and an average ex-mill gate price of, say, $710 (use your own price, here, as there still a lot of uncertainty over the remaining 4.5 months, and export tax will go up sharply in September),it is not impossible to see FY2021 revenue of $241m (FY2020 $174.5m). Page 10 makes clear the margin doubles when you do your own milling. Anyway, I won't be surprised to see the expected 30p div for 2021 more than twice covered by eps. Great announcement. Thank you.

[nobull] 19/7/2021 07:08

Ex mill gate average $724. Very good. This really sets the benchmark to judge the CEO at REA on - I bet they don't get an average realised ex-mill gate price anywhere near this - more like $660, I wonder? All this was achieved despite crippling levels of taxation for one month. But this is no excuse not to do some extension planting. Award of free shares should be tied to amount of extension planting done, should it not, not to rising cpo prices.

[nobull] 13/7/2021 06:36

Ha, so you've rumbled me.

[galeforce1] 12/7/2021 17:05

Noble - I guess KLK might go to £9 a share. I can't see them paying more than that.

[nobull] 12/7/2021 14:40

Why has he left? No job to go to. A bit odd. 20% premium? £8.52? No, thank you.
P.S. I'd have thought extension planting was the way to get the share price up to fend off a bid.

[galeforce1] 12/7/2021 13:48

Probably a good day to add a bit. I don't see anything in the RNS to cause a 5% drop. Peter Hadsley-Chaplin should be a steady hand on the tiller until a replacement for Tim Price is recruited.

It's surely just a question of time here before KLK bids for the whole company at a 20% premium.

[nobull] 29/6/2021 12:41

Export duty, levy to be lowered to $116/mt, $175/mt: sources



That is an extra $147 in less combined levy and tax per tonne we pay in July compared with June.

[nobull] 22/6/2021 06:28

Export Levy to be reduced from $255 to $175 when the CPO reference price is set at $1,000 or more. Implementation expected at the end of this month.

[nobull] 17/6/2021 06:38

How quickly things change: 17/05/21 CPO CIF Rotterdam $1,310, net of export deductions $916 and net of insurance and freight to Rotterdam $816; 14/06/21 CPO CIF Rotterdam $960, net of export deductions $532 and net of insurance and freight to Rotterdam $432.

The $255 export levy is set at ridiculous levels, particularly when Brent crude is $74 - not such a big biodiesel subsidy is needed.

[nobull] 10/6/2021 11:59

You were right about eps rocketing in the future: I see they gave a conservative illustration at $600 CPO price (presumably an ex-mill gate price) leading to 81p eps in 2024.

If you assume no further significant growth in eps after 2024 and you require a 12% earnings yield just for being in this kind of business in Indonesia, then that generates a price target of £6.75 (PE of 8.33). Of course if eps are going to continue growing after 2024, then the PE ratio will be a lot higher than 8.33. Hopefully, they will acquire more land near Simpang Kiri, build a new mill there, and more importantly get the extension planting done at Musi Rawas. If they do all the right things, growth wise, then a higher PE in 2024 would give a much more decent price target e.g. 14 x 81p = £11.34p. JMV.

[oli12] 04/6/2021 08:00

AGM next week - Hopefully a YTD update: based on the record Palm oil price and the anticipated crop growth, MPE should be on for a very good year.

[nobull] 21/4/2021 18:19

4,394 ringgit a tonne for the May CPO contract at that time, so a way to go yet, perhaps another $100, before the Rotterdam CPO price can overcome that US$1300 price barrier where the export levy and export tax cease to rise any further.

I make the average CPO price this year, net of export levy and export tax, about $762, which gives an ex mill gate price of, say, $712, if the freight and insurance to Rotterdam is, say, $50. The significance is we are in for another bumper year of high eps, eps propelled not just by higher volumes of cpo production but also by an average cpo price a bit higher than that obtained in FY2020.

Hopefully all this will be confirmed in the H1 2021 results.

Edit 22 04 21: Nothing to get excited about - yesterday's May cpo price rise was probably to accommodate the higher export tax coming into force in May, I wonder? Sorry I didn't realise that yesterday.

This is a good web site to see palm oil prices out into the future. Out of date spot prices can be found elsewhere.
hxxps://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/derivatives_prices?code=FCPO

[nocton] 21/4/2021 12:15

What does that mean, nobull?

[nobull] 21/4/2021 07:13

Front month up 163 ringgit 2:49 p.m. in KL today.

[oli12] 13/4/2021 14:34

Another 1% to KLK ? Let’s see.

[oli12] 30/3/2021 18:24

Let’s see, maybe they are just biding their time.

[nobull] 30/3/2021 16:00

My guess is KLK will time it all to start after April 5th and to finish quick enough so they get to stop us getting the June dividend. With an average entry price of £6.69, it doesn't bear thinking about what price my relative needs to compensate for the unwanted CGT bill and for the loss of BPR. The CGT death price uplift makes paying CGT when you are very elderly stupid.

[oli12] 30/3/2021 11:07

Following KLK’s increased holdings I took the opportunity to see what KLK offered several years ago.

In 2017 KLK offered 740, the number of shares in issue remains pretty much the same, 41% of holders rejected the offer in 2017. (KLK’s first offer was 640 rejected by 55% of holders).

I feel it’s only a matter of time before KLK come back to the table. I am here for the dividends, long term holders should see significant payouts over the next 5-8 years, as investments deliver increased crop yield and reduced production costs, let’s hope we get to enjoy it.

[oli12] 25/3/2021 12:24

So it was KLK, just biding their time.

[nobull] 24/3/2021 20:47

The onus seems to be on the stake builder to disclose a notifiable interest rather than on the company itself. There is a new procedure on filling in TR1 forms - I think it is all online now, and the forms maybe go direct to the FCA...maybe it is to toughen up on rule breakers. Same problem at REA - large sales last year and no stake change declarations, or if there were TR1 notifications, they were many months after the event. M&G have a reputation for getting things right and pulling out of companies that don't perform. Will find out if they were selling when the 2020 Annual Report is released.

[oli12] 24/3/2021 15:42

Unsure how we managed to get 2 new institutional holders each with + 3% without any announcement. Same goes for SL reducing their holding.