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M.p. Evans Group Plc

-4.00 (-0.52%)
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
M.p. Evans Group Plc LSE:MPE London Ordinary Share GB0007538100 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -4.00 -0.52% 766.00 80,768 16:35:13
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
762.00 770.00 770.00 758.00 760.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Agriculture Production-crops 326.92 73.06 - 5.75 417.40
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:58:45 O 20,000 770.00 GBX

M.p. Evans (MPE) Latest News (1)

M.p. Evans (MPE) Discussions and Chat

M.p. Evans Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
02/6/202318:42M. P. Evans - Palm Oil Plantations396
21/1/201018:01PALM OIL will replace trans fats63
22/5/200822:12M P Evans - Charts and Discussion113

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M.p. Evans (MPE) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type

M.p. Evans (MPE) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 18/9/2022 14:38 by wad collector
Tipped in IC this week as a BUY at 818p citing the strong price rises and the milling independency.
That said, they tipped in march at 996p.

Posted at 16/9/2022 15:26 by nobull
MP Evans does not cut down high carbon content forests. Your target should be Bolsonaro and the conversion of Amazonian forest land into beef cattle pasture: methane is about a 25 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, and oil palms probably absorb CO2, and MPE even captures methane from the decomposition of its left-overs to make electricity.

MPE gets a premium for producing palm oil in a sustainable way and MPE pays for schools, clinics, etc. and earns valuable forex for the Indonesian economy as well as contributing huge tax revenues and keeping thousands of people in productive work.

Emotive photos of distressed orangutans being displaced have their uses in helping to protect the European vegetable oil market from cheaper competing vegetable oils and help garner sales for Iceland Food's offerings that its CEO is ever keen to emphasise are free of palm oil, pandering to popular perceptions. My idea of sustainably produced palm oil is not one of displacing orangutans or reducing CO2 absorption compared to what occurred before on the same land.

The outlook is disappointing despite the huge dividend increase (which I am grateful for but not starry eyed about), and the outlook could be improved if they finish the extension planting quickly; only then will the dividend rise be justified in my view, a view that seems supported by the flat lining share price since the results. The low historic PE probably just reflects an expected fall in competing vegetable oil prices (when the Ukraine war is finished, maybe next year?)and the rising stocks of palm oil, I wonder? JMV.

Posted at 13/9/2022 14:13 by nobull
Forensic, today's presentation was very good. The export tariff of $200 per tonne (an absolutely outrageous method of wealth redistribution, coming on top of an export levy and a wretched export tax) was apparently dropped from the end of July.

With an ex-mill gate price of around $750 at present and production costs of about $450 a tonne, things may be aren't so bad as I thought. Also, full year unit production costs will be lower than H1's (some costs will be diluted against higher volumes in H2?).

The buy backs are a no-brainer and are probably a better asset allocation decision than making acquisitions with a hurdle rate of 12%, I wonder? If the £ falls any further against the $, the analysts' consensus eps target for 2022 of £1.34p could be hit, I suppose, but I am not counting on it, and definitely not on achieving 10,000 hectares of extension planting on Musi Rawas by May 2023. I will have to eat humble pie if they achieve all this!

And "How on earth are these results disappointing?" I look forward; the results were mostly ancient history: the outlook was disappointing at the time I wrote that, especially the slow rate of extension planting.

Posted at 12/9/2022 08:02 by nobull
Disappointing results, but still one of the safest and best AIM listed companies to hold. I don't get the optimism for the dividend increase, what with the excessive levels of taxation and slow planting and rise in production costs and the mega falls in the CPO price for H2. I can't see how the eps forecast of 134p could be achieved for FY2022 - more likely the forecast will be reduced. Happy to hold despite today's results (a lot of things are not the BoD's fault).
Posted at 21/7/2022 08:47 by nobull
"In the period to the end of June 2022, the Group realised an average price at mill gate of US$1,035 per tonne compared with US$724 in the first half of 2021, an increase of 43%. Prices for palm kernels averaged US$830 per tonne (mill gate), higher than the US$491 per tonne in 2021."

All good reasons for the shares to go back over £10, except for what has happened since the H1 end: July has been terrible month what with the way the Indonesian Government has been overtaxing us (the sky-high reference price when the cpo price was massively lower).

The cure for high prices is high prices, not taxing the hell out of us. Lower cooking oil prices could have been subsidised out of general taxation.

Using today's £/$ rate of 1.19937, the FY2022 eps forecast in US$ would be 157.585 cents, which is not a 17% decline in eps as shown.

Posted at 22/6/2022 08:29 by nobull
After the recent cpo price falls (including today on the futures market), I won't be surprised if there is yet again another change in the export regulations that reduces the export deductions (currently $688 of deductions if you add the new export tariff on to export levy and export tax). Surely they've got reasonable domestic cooking oil prices now? All these deductions affect the price smallholders get for their ffb, so the Indonesian government can't just try to please cooking oil consumers all the time, at our expense, I wonder?
Posted at 21/6/2022 12:11 by bangersnsmash
what do they sell? is it palm oil? try checking the futures as that will give you an idea about what happens when the price of onions goes down
Posted at 24/3/2022 08:53 by nobull
I assume the special resolution (resolution no.9) has been pre-agreed with KLK, otherwise our BoD probably wouldn't be putting it forward again, would they? It therefore seems likely to pass. If our BoD can buy in 5,469,625 shares at a cost of £54m, the FY2022 consensus analysts' forecast of 65.26p can be upgraded 11.11% to 72.5p, all other things remaining as before (because there will be 10% fewer shares in issue).

Given our shares trade below £12.65 fair value, a DCF value that is calculated using a conservative long term CPO price, one that is way below the current ex-mill gate price we are receiving; given value-accretive acquisitions probably take years to complete; given the mega cash generation we are currently enjoying, then it is maybe the most value-accretive use of our surplus cash to do buybacks.

If an earnings upgrade was the reason the Daily Mail tipped our shares, I apologise. I think the analysts will upgrade our FY2022 eps forecast due to the buybacks and due to CPO price remaining higher for longer than previously anticipated (Ukraine invasion lasting longer than previously thought).

Edit: a write-up in IC gives us a "buy" based on a forward PE of 10 (Finncap), strong dividend growth prospects and good eps growth prospects (the surplus cash).

Posted at 03/3/2022 18:32 by wad collector
Nice to see something blue in my portfolio, though not sure why the share price is so strong this week. Must be the oil price going up...
Posted at 23/3/2021 08:21 by nobull
Having too much cash is bad - it dilutes the ROCE. The shocking thing about AEP is it didn't even bother to buy back its own shares for cancellation during the pandemic. I assume AEP has a good reason for holding so much cash and paying such a low dividend, but the longer the situation persists, the harder it is to believe it has a good reason. If you switch to AEP, you need the mind set of a fakir lying on a bed of nails - that it is all for good in the end. The good thing about AEP is they appear to be doing extension planting (replacement planting no good?). JMV.

Today's lacklustre MPE share price performance on results ahead of expectations is a shock.

M.p. Evans share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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