M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[nobull] 31/3/2022 16:06

Okay, I'll put Lidl's battered cod back on the menu for the time being.

Mind you, if the unrealised capital gains on this stock continue, I might have to become non UK ordinarily resident for tax, and there's no Lidl's battered cod in Beirut or Bangkok.

It's looking like fried buffalo steak in palm derived cooking oil, or Full Madams in Beirut instead of cod.

[wad collector] 31/3/2022 11:42

I am well aware of the biochemistry of fats, and all too familiar with the inside and outside of coronary arteries. I suspect that we will continue to differ, you rightly observe that most dietary studies are flawed, both by the impossibility of randomised controlled studies and the duration of intervention.However I think the body of unbiased non-industry funded evidence does not support palm oil as a lower risk food but am sure that you will disagree.
I hold these because I think they are a good investment rather than a desirable source of food, which I acknowledge involves a certain amount of hypocrisy, but I will stick to sunflowers...

[nocton] 31/3/2022 11:07

It is amazing how the prejudice against palm oil lingers, even after there have been lots of modern dietary studies showing it is OK in the diet and after the WHO's guidelines on what the balance of fatty acids should be in the diet. It was all driven from the US when the soy producers realised that Palm was going to overtake soy as the world's favourite oil.

Palm oil is a perfectly healthy food ingredient. There is no such thing as a 'saturated fat' only saturated fatty acids. PO contains about half saturated fatty acids, like meat or butter, but about the same amount of mono-unsaturated fatty acids like olive oil and 10% polyunsaturated (which Olive oil does not, to its detriment) and as part of a healthy diet which contains polyunsaturated acids it is perfectly OK. The original rat studies which suggested that saturated fatty acids were totally bad, fed the rats nothing but saturated fatty acids and were totally flawed and misleading. And then we had all the advertising in the US that palm was poisoning the Americans. As you need some more-solid/saturated fats to make all sorts of products that we like, the Americans ended up with hydrogenated soybean oil as replacement, resulting in higher heart disease rates than European countries who used palm oil instead.
As I mentioned, palm is the best and safest oil for frying so your battered cod is the healthiest it could be.

Just stick to the WHO and British Nutrition guidelines that saturated fatty acids (not fats) should comprise no more than a third (10% energy)of the total fatty acids in the diet, the rest being mono and poly fatty acids.

[nobull] 31/3/2022 08:49

Lidl's battered cod off my menu then - it contains palm fat.

[wad collector] 31/3/2022 08:39

As you say, it does have more oxidation resistance. But its ease of transition to margarine is largely from its highly saturated composition; it has 5 times the saturated fat content of sunflower oil. And the consensus of evidence is still that our arteries don't enjoy that.

[nocton] 28/3/2022 16:40

Palm oil, and especially palm olein its liquid fraction, is a healthier option for frying than sunflower, soy or rapeseed oils as it does not oxidise so easily. It is also a key ingredient for any sort of margarine or shortening. Hence its major use for those purposes and the reason why it is the world's most important vegetable oil.

[wad collector] 28/3/2022 14:57

That IC article also pointed out that Palm Oil is a substitute for the sunflower oil for which Ukraine produces 30% of the world supply. (not a healthy option mind you but better than starvation), so a good defensive play at the moment.
Sp graph certainly impressive.

[nobull] 24/3/2022 08:53

I assume the special resolution (resolution no.9) has been pre-agreed with KLK, otherwise our BoD probably wouldn't be putting it forward again, would they? It therefore seems likely to pass. If our BoD can buy in 5,469,625 shares at a cost of £54m, the FY2022 consensus analysts' forecast of 65.26p can be upgraded 11.11% to 72.5p, all other things remaining as before (because there will be 10% fewer shares in issue).

Given our shares trade below £12.65 fair value, a DCF value that is calculated using a conservative long term CPO price, one that is way below the current ex-mill gate price we are receiving; given value-accretive acquisitions probably take years to complete; given the mega cash generation we are currently enjoying, then it is maybe the most value-accretive use of our surplus cash to do buybacks.

If an earnings upgrade was the reason the Daily Mail tipped our shares, I apologise. I think the analysts will upgrade our FY2022 eps forecast due to the buybacks and due to CPO price remaining higher for longer than previously anticipated (Ukraine invasion lasting longer than previously thought).



Edit: a write-up in IC gives us a "buy" based on a forward PE of 10 (Finncap), strong dividend growth prospects and good eps growth prospects (the surplus cash).

[nobull] 22/3/2022 07:24

Crikey



Blown the consensus analysts' eps forecast to bits at 115.6p. Net debt approx $5m! I hope this bodes well for REA too. Final dividend is a shocker for me. I was only expecting a 20p Final to make a total of 30p for FY2021, ignoring the special.

[spob] 21/3/2022 07:55

tipped in the mail yesterday

[nobull] 07/3/2022 06:05

Warning: consensus analysts' forecast is in £ but the historic stuff is in $.

[coolen] 03/3/2022 22:11

A few chunks going through. Wonder if KLK is topping up ?

[wad collector] 03/3/2022 18:32

Nice to see something blue in my portfolio, though not sure why the share price is so strong this week. Must be the oil price going up...

[galles] 17/1/2022 07:09

Net debt massively reduced with a special dividends. Bloody fantastic! At this rate, MPE will be in net cash in no time and will be spilling out cash regularly

[wad collector] 13/1/2022 13:16

Those look encouraging , even more so when I noticed the currency change!

[nobull] 05/1/2022 10:29

New consensus analysts' forecast out for 2023.

[nocton] 24/11/2021 14:13

But you are assuming that all palm plantations are planted on peat. Some have been, but most not. But as I said, whatever rich Westerners think as they eschew palm oil and switch to soya often grown on ex-Amazon rain forest) the world's less-rich population, perhaps a billion of whom don't get enough to eat, will continue to buy palm oil. Even the EU is hypocritical in respect to palm oil - their 5% bio-diesel policy would require all the EU's output of veg oils to fulfil - no oil left to eat. So course, palm oil has to make up the difference.

[wad collector] 24/11/2021 13:44

I think it rather depends what you count. If you start with rain forest , including all the depth of foliage and the peat layers in the ground, and convert it to a palm oil plantation , you lose a lot of carbon, especially the peat layers. I think we would like to convince ourselves that this is not a harmful process.

[nocton] 23/11/2021 19:31

After about 5 years or so, a palm plantation absorbs as much as if not more CO2 than rain forest. If Europe is happy to count commercial pine forests as tree cover then a palm plantation is equally valid as tree cover and because it is a tropical crop is far more effective at absorbing CO2 than any temperate forest. Since palm oil is easily the world's favourite/most important vegetable oil there is no chance of any reduction in acreage if we are to feed the world, use more diesel and use oleo- rather than petro-chemicals (from fossil fuels) in our personal care products.

[bobdouthwaite] 23/11/2021 17:03

Agreed, it's a grey area. I worked in Sumatra some years ago and saw the devastation left by loggers. Asia Pulp and Paper turned the timber into toilet paper for you and me. The land was no good to man or beast and the time-scale for forest recovery extremely long. With a rapidly growing population it was inevitable the land would be taken over by subsistence farmers and oil palm estates. Following COP26 I hope governments will become more pro-active in preventing logging in the first place, but I'm not holding my breath - the loggers are a ruthless bunch!

[wad collector] 23/11/2021 13:01

"We are constantly looking to ensure growth in the future by continuing to plant new land. Since 2005, the Group focused on planting its new projects, regularly planting more than 2,000 ha per annum."

Although the policy is about avoiding deforestation , there are clearly grey areas. For example the acquisition of BMA in 2017 would allow MPE to have not directly planted on the land 5 yrs earlier , because the deforestation was by previous owners.

The commitment to increasing yield from existing plantations , whilst desirable from an industrial point of view, is unlikely to improve the soil quality and biodiversity if you look at the absence of any other vegetation around the palms.

I am not taking the moral high ground, as also a holder, but I do wonder about what will happen to the industry in the long run.
Probably nothing as there are too many reasons why the industrial force will exceed the conservation ones. But I think it merits consideration...