Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[poikka] 23/8/2019 07:59

Everyone falling over themselves trying to show that they would not be responsible if the UK left without an agreement, or am I being unfair?

I might be, because this could well create its own momentum.

We now await the EU Presidents to join the party. What will their pitch be after resoundingly trying to shaft us for the past 3 years or so. Will the European Commission meet before the Presidents sound off, or will the other 26 member states be side-lined. That wouldn't do - creating a split.

Bit of a conundrum for Brussels: they don't want the easily-avoided economic pain of a no-deal exit, but they don't want us to go unpunished. They want other EU member states to see us hanging at the cross-roads.

So I don't see us getting a deal that doesn't include hefty payments, but not so hefty that we can't live with it, and it would have to be preferable to a no-deal scenario for us.

That, plus the disruption of the past 3 years that the UK has gone through should be enough to keep the others on board, not to mention having Germany there to rescue them when their economies stagger.

[pal44] 23/8/2019 07:28

good morning . hope Bury FC can fix it

[bargainbob] 23/8/2019 05:35

Wee Ginger explains for the Chimps .

Yesterday was GERS day, and as was entirely predictable it produced the usual cringefest of anti-independence campaigners gloating about how poor Scotland supposedly is. The “news” that Scotland is supposedly responsible for over half of the UK’s annual deficit was gleefully leapt upon by anti-independence politicians who were all over social media like a cringing rash. However it’s utter nonsense, and is nothing more than an artifact of the way that the GERS figures are constructed. They were deliberately constructed that way in order to paint Scotland in as poor a financial light as possible and to reinforce the claim that the wealth of the UK is produced by the financial sector in London. GERS wants us to believe that Scotland is a beggar at the table of a City of London bankers’ banquet.

There are several ways in which the GERS figures underestimate Scottish revenues and artificially increase Scottish expenditure. There is in particular one way which has a dramatic effect on the supposed contribution of Scotland to the UK’s annual deficit and produces the claim that Scotland, with 8.5% of the UK’s population, is all by itself responsible for over half the UK’s annual deficit. The claim that Scotland is responsible for over half of the UK’s annual deficit is quite simply utter nonsense.

This claim is the product of a simple accounting trick, a trick which is so transparent that even the Scottish media ought to be able to see through it. The fact that they don’t tells you that they have chosen not to, because it suits the interests of the anti-independence establishment that you don’t know how it really works.

Let’s explain how it works with a simple hypothetical example. For the purposes of this explanation, let’s use some invented figures in order to keep things simple, and let’s also suppose that the UK is split into four areas for the purposes of government revenue and expenditure. These figures and the areas may be fictional, but they illustrate how GERS works and how it acts as a political tool to artificially inflate the apparent deficit reported for Scotland.

Area A reports an annual surplus of £100. Area B reports an annual deficit of £75. Area C reports an annual deficit of £50. And Area D, which in this example represents Scotland, also reports an annual deficit of £50. That means that the annual deficit for the UK as a whole is £75. We calculate that figure by adding up the total deficit from each area, which comes to 175, and we subtract it from the surplus reported by Area A, which is 100. The product of that calculation is minus 75. That gives us a final figure of £75 as the annual deficit for the UK as a whole. (Because remember that a deficit is really a negative number.)

However what GERS does is to compare Area D, which in this example represents Scotland, with the the UK as a whole. Once we extract Area D, the rest of the UK now has a deficit of £25, because now we are only totalling up the deficits from Areas B and C and subtracting them from the surplus reported for Area A. Areas B and C have a total deficit of 125, subtracted from Area A’s surplus of 100, that gives us a deficit for A, B, and C together of £25.

So GERS would have us believe that with its deficit of £50, Scotland is responsible for two thirds of the total UK deficit of £75. GERS tells us that Scotland is responsible for two thirds of the deficit even though there is another area of the UK, Area B, which has a higher annual deficit than Scotland does, and Area C has the exact same deficit as Scotland does. It’s an accounting trick, and it’s one of the reasons why GERS was introduced as a political tool to use against those of us who argue for greater Scottish self-government.

Yet GERS is even worse than this example suggests, because in this example we are assuming that Area A’s surplus of £100 really is produced by Area A. With GERS, that’s not an assumption that we can safely make. In the UK, the surplus generated by London and the South East is not necessarily really generated by that region, even though it is apportioned to that region in the government’s financial statistics.

GERS claims that it makes a due allowance for the economic activity carried out by UK-wide businesses in Scotland, although the political economist Richard Murphy points out that the data to do this simply doesn’t exist. However there is a greater issue, the UK’s bloated financial sector, based in London, syphons off huge amounts of money from the rest of the UK and records it as revenue from London. The “financialisation” of the UK economy has increased greatly over the past decades, as Private Finance Initiatives have spread across the land like a bloodsucking blight.

In just one example, the Police Training Centre in East Kilbride will result in a cash stream of £111 million over the 26 years of the financing life of the project going to the financial company delivering a project which the public were told was only going to cost £27 million. This £111 million will be recorded as Scottish expenditure, but as London revenue. Had the government built this training centre using more conventional means, it would only have cost around £30 to £50 million. Instead the final cost will be well north of £100 million. That’s why PFI is described as “one hospital for the price of two.” For more detail on how this really works, to the great detriment of Scotland and everywhere else in the UK outside the City of London, see here – hxxps://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/08/16/the-burden-of-financialisation-a-case-study-of-a-scottish-police-training-centre/

This massive growth the payments due because of the PFI initiatives so beloved of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown and successive Conservative governments is one of the main factors that has caused the ballooning of the Scottish deficit over the past decade. The result is that Scotland and the rest of the UK is told that it has a massive deficit, while London reports a surplus and Westminster governments insist that this means that we are all dependent on the goodwill and charity of the financial sector in the City of London and must all bow down before them.

So the next time Gordie Broon broontervenes and tells us that Scotland depends on pooling and sharing with the rest of the UK, remember that what he’s caused is that the income is shared with London, but the costs with Scotland. Of course the GERS figures don’t reflect any of this. That’s just the UK unitary market working normally. Which is precisely why we need independence, because the UK unitary market is designed to suck money out of the public sector in rest of the UK, and deposit it in the bank accounts of the wealthy.

[bargainbob] 23/8/2019 05:15

Corrupt BBC.

A BBC package on today's GERS figures froze earlier, cutting off presenter Douglas Fraser's counterpoint that Wales' deficit is significantly higher than Scotland's.
The figures were the headline news for Reporting Scotland's lunchtime show.
The GERS data shows Scotland benefitted from a £3 billion increase in onshore revenues in the last year to reach £61.3bn, the fastest growth since 2010-11.

But Unionists have been desperate to paint the numbers in a bad light, with Better Together figures being wheeled out to provide their annual economic analysis - the type of analysis that usually consists of "too wee, too small, too stupid".
The BBC package started with a summary of what the GERS figures mean from presenter Fraser, then cut to a comment from Finance Secretary Derek Mackay.
Mackay pointed out that with the "powers of independence, we'd be able to make the right choices to grow our economy even faster, grow our revenues and reduce that notional estimated deficit".

The package then cut to Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, who said the "dividend is the £2000 more per man, woman and child that is spent in Scotland, and that's as a benefit of being part of the United Kingdom.
"We benefit, you know ... the sum of the parts of the United Kingdom are greater than the whole, and I believe we benefit enormously from our membership."
The clip then froze on Jack's face for 14 seconds, before cutting back to Fraser in the studio. He said: ".. deficit for Wales, is nearly three times bigger."
The journalist is referring to the Welsh deficit being larger than Scotland's at nearly £20 billion, but without already knowing this information the comment would be useless.

Presenter Catriona Shearer then said: "Okay Douglas, many thanks for that. Apologies for cutting Douglas off there."
So there you have it. Technical issues managed to cut off a journalist explaining Scotland does not have the worst deficit of the UK's four nations.
And that's something you might be likely to believe if you've seen today's tweet from the Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who claimed Scotland's deficit is the highest in Europe ...

[lippy4] 22/8/2019 23:31

smarty pants i note you dont say that spain would be screwed as the input from our tourism is £20-30 billion,pus there are many small companies exporting other goods to the eu,so lots of jobs will be cancelled..

spain with a bit of luck would return to the great days when franco ruled with a iron fist and it was safe to go out in the evening...

[sentimentrules] 22/8/2019 23:12

Yes amaretto.. things a lot worse since, being the point

[sentimentrules] 22/8/2019 23:11

Very nice. Why the niceties? Got a bazooka to follow up?

[minerve 2] 22/8/2019 22:46

Evening folks.

Hope everyone is having a good evening.

[sentimentrules] 22/8/2019 21:45

I see copper sitting on a twelve month triple bottom.. or two year quadruple ...wonder how many will go cash if it breaks..

[maxk] 22/8/2019 21:31

And supported by you .. get off the fence.

[careful] 22/8/2019 21:27

maxk

not my sort of Brexit, but one that is being proposed by others.

[diku] 22/8/2019 21:26

Phil is getting angry....very angry...get ready Panesars are coming soon...

[xxxxxy] 22/8/2019 21:10

Brexit Fudge will not happen. Reason a GE will occur very soon after Oct. Fudge Brexit means The Brexit Party will not stand aside. Catastrophe for the Cons and QUISLINGS And so the Con party will be RIP. Ditto Labour.

Revolution is in the wings.

More Lies and deceit will revealed and reviled.

Farage for PM. Finish the job.

Mess around and Cons RIP

LEAVE and WTO

Cymru am byth. Nos da

[maxk] 22/8/2019 21:04

careful.

Your type of brexit is not brexit at all.

ok, so it will take a little longer, and without the tory or labour party, both of whom will join the dopeycrats in oblivion the first chance voters get.

[sentimentrules] 22/8/2019 21:01

Growth for Spain figures 2012 to 2016 is amazing really. Highly dependant on UK tourism

[sentimentrules] 22/8/2019 20:59

Can't upload the link so here is the case:

"The economic importance of UK outbound tourism to the EU27 economies."

September 2017
A report for ABTA
Produced by the centre of economics and business research. (CEBR)

[careful] 22/8/2019 20:53

We shall probably leave, but the type of Brexit we have will not please the ERG.

Corbyn was talking tonight of solving the backstop problem by staying in the customs union.
Ken Clarke said that a sensible Brexit was to have a political separation but to keep the trading advantages by staying in the customs union.

It looks like we could get Brexit but it will be by staying in the customs union.

That is a direction of travel.
An ideal compromise that the vast majority will support, most leavers and most remainers and most MP's

[maxk] 22/8/2019 20:46

Who said you cant put lipstick on a pig?

[rapsand] 22/8/2019 20:05

Post of the year