Kier Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 04/1/2019 16:43

Safe and sound at home again, let the waters roar, Jack.
Safe and sound at home again, let the waters roar, Jack.

Long we've tossed on the rolling main, now we're safe ashore, Jack.
Don't forget yer old shipmate, faldee raldee raldee raldee rye-eye-doe!

Since we sailed from Plymouth Sound, four years gone, or nigh, Jack.
Was there ever chummies, now, such as you and I, Jack?

Long we've tossed on the rolling main, now we're safe ashore, Jack.
Don't forget yer old shipmate, faldee raldee raldee raldee rye-eye-doe!

We have worked the self-same gun, quarterdeck division.
Sponger I and loader you, through the whole commission.

Long we've tossed on the rolling main, now we're safe ashore, Jack.
Don't forget yer old shipmate, faldee raldee raldee raldee rye-eye-doe!

[minerve] 03/1/2019 10:58

getting

Big projects come and go. It is always difficult to see what replaces projects like Smart Motorways, Crossrail, HS2 etc.. None of us have crystal balls. But life and society move on and large projects will follow. If the government cannot afford to continue these projects we will fall behind as a nation and become less attractive for world corporate business. In other words, if government cannot afford to do things like this then we need to be concerned about many things not just Kier. Good companies will recognise that they cannot rely on a few contracts alone. Carillion didn't manage this at all. I think Kier are aware and its figures demonstrate to some extent its variance of business, clients and contracts; difficult to fully see dependancy but it is in a much better position than Carillion and others with this regard. Energy is going through a once in a century change ATM and this will drive infrastructural change big-time IMO.

[elcapital2018] 03/1/2019 10:45

grs = idiot

[gettingrichslow] 03/1/2019 10:44

I should add I'm talking about over a medium to long term planning horizon (5-30 years)

[gettingrichslow] 03/1/2019 10:42

Minny, I agree with some of what you've said there but the really big contracts come where there's big population growth that drives enhancement projects like Crossrail2, HS2 etc. If that growth slows there are big problems for companies like this.

[minerve] 03/1/2019 10:41

"However new work on civil engineering projects, which includes infrastructure work like Crossrail and the Thames Tideway tunnel, picked up to the highest pace for over one-and-a-half years suggesting that government investment may help to support builders even as business investment slows. "

From the FT this morning. Truth is, if Brexit is supported by parliament, they can't watch things like this fail. They will write the cheques necessary to keep the public sweet.

[minerve] 03/1/2019 10:30

I think getting is mistaken if he believes population growth is needed to see a boom in infrastructure spend. Many decades have seen bad capitalism suck money out of companies that provide our needs and it is ONLY the threat of societal discontent and Corbynism that is switching on a light that this cannot continue. Don't believe me then go and read about a company like Thames Water. Corbyn is already dictating policy by proxy. Roads, airports, energy & water infrastructure, hospitals, schools, etc.. etc.. need £bns just to bring them back to acceptable levels of useability/service. The same with housing. Kier is uniquely positioned and its record order book to some extent proves this to be the case. Just got to watch the problems with the Brexit circus and the company's debt profile.

[gettingrichslow] 03/1/2019 10:27

Jeffian, did I ever say it would be specific to Kier? No I didn't. It will affect certain sectors and already is. If you want to bury your head in the sand then that's up to you but it will affect your wealth! Read last month's Passenger Transport' magazine as an example. Big fall off in rail, underground and bus ridership already underway...will so many big infrastructure projects be needed going forwards? I very much doubt it. Hopefully you can see the link to Kier now?

[marksp2011] 03/1/2019 10:13

Jeffian,

IMHO the only thing that will move Kier is the dismissal of Mursell

[jeffian] 03/1/2019 09:44

Kind of you to look me up, getting, but those posts were all on a 'chat' thread and that's my point. If you want to sound off about Brexit or whatever, why not go to a relevant thread? If your point about population decline were true - which I don't accept for one minute - then it would affect the economy as a whole and not specific to Kier at all. It doesn't really matter as I don't have to read it, but it seems to have taken over this thread to the exclusion of everything else.

[gettingrichslow] 03/1/2019 09:19

Jeffian, shall we talk about New Year's Day parades, dry January, Iranian people in boats etc like your last few posts? This exchange about declining population growth is very much linked to Kier because it will lead to reduced infrastructure spend (compared to if population had kept surging under a Blair style immigration policy).

[marksp2011] 03/1/2019 09:18

Gettingrich

I have stayed in rural romania

6 kids in a 2 room mud brick house, no running water or proper sanitation, electricity stolen from a pylon, home dug toilets, rubbish dumped in communal middens. Kids have to pay to go to school, no money=no schooling and unpaved roads.

They will take any work for whatever money. I don't think is what we should be targeting - these are the "Victorian values" that the comfortably wealthy seem to think are such a great idea.

This is a low tax and spend environment

BTW, rural Florida isn't a lot better. I have seen families living in houses that are 2 car garages with the opening boarded up.

I don't want to go here.

last point is that as you increase the labour cost in UK, jobs will be offshored and automation will increase - that reduces vacancies at the same time as those looking for work increases. There are many moving parts to that model - I don't know where the new equilibrium point will be but it is interesting that Somerset Capital (Mogg) and Odey (the great brexiteer funder) are both heavily short on UK PLC - I do wonder where the ethics are with that one.

[jeffian] 02/1/2019 23:21

Is it possible you could take this conversation somewhere else and we could get back to Kier?

[gettingrichslow] 02/1/2019 22:16

Nomdeplume, why do you think it has nothing to do with Brexit when many of the EU nationals that are leaving are themselves citing Brexit and the associated uncertainty as the reason for them leaving? And many of the vacancies that are appearing are quite clearly those vacated by EU nationals. This is backed up by recent statements made by the NHS, London Underground and unions representing farmers, nurses and university lecturers, who have all said they are seeing EU nationals returning to their home countries since the referendum. This creates vacancies!

[nomdeplume] 02/1/2019 21:38

Getting: I agree that the changes to the benefit system have encouraged more people to find jobs. However, it has sweet Fanny Adams to do with Brexit. I always feel that Brexiteers should look at a map. We are a small country in Europe that can no longer rely on the slave trade and an empire to support us. Perhaps Brexiteers should remember that the USA, which they appear to admire, is actually a union of European immigrants.

[kangaroo joe] 02/1/2019 21:24

Euro net migration has fallen but is still positive last time I looked.

[minerve] 02/1/2019 15:03

getting isn't the brightest button in the box.

[marksp2011] 02/1/2019 14:34

A lot of the Poles and Romanians are leaving along with the Spanish. The Poles are being incentivised to go home.

This will have quite an effect on the rentals market especially the house market as they tend to group let

I have no idea why anyone thinks the jobs they held will now be taken by Brits....the Brits could have had those jobs any time they wanted them.

[gettingrichslow] 02/1/2019 10:56

I'm afraid you're showing you are the one who hasn't thought this through. Ooh, we've got a historic spike in population, let's get loads of immigrants in to pay for our retirements. Oooh, we've got loads of new people now, we need to build loads of new schools and hospitals, so let's get even more immigrants in to provide the labour. Oooooh, now they're all having children too!! Ever heard of a Ponzi scheme you dunderhead?? Not sustainable. Chimp thinking for a Remainer chimp!!

[gettingrichslow] 02/1/2019 10:32

Minny, yes, immigration will fall, first from EU then from non-EU too. Wages will rise in the low paid jobs and be filled by Brits. Won't happen overnight but will be gradual. It's happening already, the two Polish ladies that make my morning coffee have left to go back to Krakow and have been replaced by two Brits, one of which has been on benefits for last three years. Good news all round. And means lower capital investment required on roads, rail, water etc in long run. Understand the logic of that dunderhead?