Kier Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 02/1/2019 10:19

Look at the short tracker for this stock. All leaving to short Plus 500! ROFLMAO!

Now it is your turn! ROFLMAO!

[buywell3] 02/1/2019 08:44

The chart is looking dire

300p beckons

Will Trump save the World ?

[gettingrichslow] 02/1/2019 08:40

Zico is right. This one is strictly for lemmings. Big trouble ahead. What's going to happen when population of UK starts falling?

[zicopele] 02/1/2019 08:26

It is all over ...the construction market will contract this year.

[minerve] 31/12/2018 17:54

We can't assume it was a zero holding even though it might have been. It may have been a holding under the notifiable threshold that has increased. Nevertheless, it has increased for whatever reason. Hope they don't immediately lend it out to the shorters.

Happy New Year to all long holders here!

[kangaroo joe] 31/12/2018 17:47

Prudential/M&G see some value here with a 7.93% stake (from zero holding). Overhang reducing quickly. Brokers promoting etc. Hope that with some new management by the Summer we might recoup our losses. Bloody 'deal happy' accountants, they never learn!

[ayl30] 27/12/2018 08:15

STD Life ups investment here, rns

[minerve] 24/12/2018 11:59

Actually the current mcap is approximately £660m.

This short happened during the middle of a rights issue so it depends whether you use the pre or post rights no of shares in the short calculation. Whichever way it is your £100M is wrong.

[elcapital2018] 24/12/2018 10:58

mcap is around 1bn. 10% of that is ...................

[minerve] 24/12/2018 10:54

OK, so two up-tick the questioning of a short-term short position. I said it was City rumour and I think it could be true. So, Minerve looks into it a little further.....

If the average total short on the week was, say, 13%, and it for a few hours increased to 23%, that is a short-term increase of 10%. I don't make that £100m, it is more like £38m. 8 companies are currently shown as shorting greater than 0.5%. That's £4.75m each, most likely leveraged, during a rump placement where bulk purchase can be negotiated with the brokers to potentially close out those short-term shorts at 360p.

I don't find that hard to believe.

[minerve] 23/12/2018 22:27

Who cares? It's done now anyway.

[elcapital2018] 23/12/2018 22:15

Hmm. I dont think that is true. A one d ay 10% plus increase?? Thats a £100m odd short term trade

[minerve] 23/12/2018 21:45

City gossip and it was very transient - only lasting within the day.

[elcapital2018] 23/12/2018 19:52

Why do you say the short are 23% Minerve. Where did you get that info? shortracker of shorts above 0.5% is half of that

[marksp2011] 23/12/2018 11:45

This whole sector stinks. If you get the right part of the cycle you can make $$$ but I am deeply unconvinced that investing in anything that is a hostage to the weather and thinks a 2% margin is good is a way to make money in the long term

Housebuilding has a 20%+ margin and a 14 week turnaround on capital excluding land bank. Construction has 1-2%, no barriers to entry and a year turnaround minimum and retention payments.

getting a really strong balance sheet so that you weather shocks that come from paper thin margins isn't really a good use of my capital.

The only one that looks to be worth holding is Costain that is far more in the consultancy space.

If Kier were serious about shareholder value they would really scale back on the Construction business. Small and profitable beats large and loss making

Kier has been a fantastic destroyer of shareholder capital. I am a buyer at the moment but this is not something that qualifies as an investment

[porsche1945] 21/12/2018 23:15

Not so much fiddling whilst Rome burns as arguing who will hold the violin, our politicians utterly utterly pathetic, that imbecile and coward Cameron, where is he? he brought on this fiacso with the stupid self harming impoverishing daft simplistic referendum then legs it. I think this goes beyond a normal recession, serious long term harm is being done, businesses being moved out of UK, asset values destroyed and it is very devisive, people I inow seriously resenting brexit morons they see as dragging them down with them. A trashed currency isnt helping, people getting poorer by the day. Mad, the UK could end up soon like it was in the 70's. Basket case.

[gettingrichslow] 20/12/2018 23:30

Fair enough. Same here actually. I've been to 68 of the old 92 grounds following my team but no longer, for that reason amongst various others.

[minerve] 20/12/2018 23:22

No it doesn't. I struggle. I'm not attached to it as I used to be.

[gettingrichslow] 20/12/2018 23:18

No problem. I try to be objective so I'm happy to agree with you if I think you're right. Tell me something (on a different subject) - how do you find it possible to cheer on Liverpool players that you must feel earn outrageously excessive salaries for kicking a piece of plastic around? Doesn't reconcile with many opinions you express does it?

[minerve] 20/12/2018 23:11

Thank you getting. At last we have some common ground.

[gettingrichslow] 20/12/2018 23:08

Wow. Can't believe this, but I agree with everything Minerve says on recessions. Every single word. Almost impossible to try and get out then back in without the risks he describes.

[minerve] 20/12/2018 22:34

Kingston78

I hope you are not referring to me when you say "I have noted certain posters on this board are very emotional about their investments in Kier and will top up their shareholdings no matter what."

I'd like you to know that I have researched Kier months' ago, way before the rights issue. When I buy now, tomorrow, whenever, it is with a view that I believe Kier is undervalued and the UK market is oversold. I say that as a Remainer too! It isn't anything to do with emotion in hope that one day I will be proved right. Chances are I will be right, but I have a full 'trade size' for Kier that will not be breached no matter what. I am very disciplined on portfolio management.

Buffet and Benjamin Graham never talk about averaging up or averaging down in value investing. Not the text I've read, and I have read a lot on value investing. I am only averaging down because of the rights issue and I will be buying over many months regardless of the share price direction as long as the price is cheap: Kier is the third cheapest stock on the FTSE 350.

Recessions: pointless trying to time them. Generally they don't last long. Best to stay mainly invested with some cash on the side. Buffett works this way. Recessions really are only an issue if you can't afford to see your portfolio dip c40%. Genuine equity investors should be prepared to accept that this is the price you pay for equity ownership and ride it through. If you try to time things and move into cash you will fail on your timing, your trade costs will increase, you will open yourself up to inflation risk and you might drop dividend income. It will dent your portfolio big-time over a few decades.

Kier has been the subject of massive shorting where concerns have been magnified to achieve their own objectives without regard to fundamentals. In fact, it seems apparent that these shorters continued this afternoon increasing the short position to c23% because they know the brokers do not have the balance sheets to maintain medium/long-term holdings of £20m+ in Kier. It is IMO that we may see more of this in the future because MIFID II directives are weakening brokerages.