Kier Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 02/4/2019 13:45

Don't wish to sound rude but averaging down didn't work for holders of Carillion, Interserve and Capita stock did it.

Is there not a concern Kier looks rather similar to these companies???

[ltcm1] 01/4/2019 19:05

Thanks guys some good points made.

Regarding the balance sheet it's just so easy for 'assets' to really be costs on the p&l, the chart is worrying here given the huge rights issue.

The chart looks errily like Capita here.

[minerve 2] 30/3/2019 20:23

Get back to your day job packing burgers.

[gettingrichslow] 30/3/2019 20:19

I realise it must be upsetting having a run of poor investments such as yours but there really is no need to use foul language. You can learn from this and become a better investor if you could only channel your energy more positively?

[minerve 2] 30/3/2019 18:10

After I WARNED him.

[minerve 2] 30/3/2019 18:10

Watch his advice. He lost tens of thousands on PLUS.

[gettingrichslow] 30/3/2019 17:09

Minny says: "If you don't want to invest no problem. Go and find another stock."

Can he apply that same principle to the many ADVFN boards he trolls 24/7 where he doesn't have an investment please?? What a chimp.

[danny baker] 30/3/2019 12:19

Zico fair point I don't know the exact state of the balance sheet. Maybe because Keir are one of the largest private sector employers where I live, I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. My largest investment is another construction company so I have some experience in the sector. Interestingly Kier has a very well written Wikipedia page with lots of useful background information.

[minerve 2] 30/3/2019 11:12

Yes, we have looked at them all zico, give it a rest. If you don't want to invest no problem. Go and find another stock.

[zicopele] 30/3/2019 10:51

Danny...you know nothing about the balance sheet. Construction companies are very opaque.

On an individual job basis, the only people who will be familiar with the true WIP are the local site management.

That is why focus from investors should always be on cash. It is more difficult to overstate cash.

[minerve 2] 30/3/2019 09:29

Good post Danny.

I don't see it as averaging down. Averaging down is just the process of buying more to make your average buy price cheaper. It is a process which has no reference to company performance. The company is either undervalued or it isn't and you buy up to the % in the portfolio that you are comfortable with. I would NEVER average down for averaging down's sake. The company has to be undervalued IMO and that is all there is to it. If something changes materially which is negative and the share price plunges you have to revalue the company; if it isn't undervalued anymore you either hold or sell but you shouldn't be averaging down.

[danny baker] 30/3/2019 00:08

ltcm1, averaging down has been a key part of my investment strategy for over 30 years and has done me well. Psychologically I am not an averaging up kind of guy. I invest early and small and often the price drops after I buy. Fortunately I keep plenty of powder dry to average down. This reduces the exit price needed for a profit. I have just re-read the Kier interim statement. I am comfortable that the next announcement will be the completion of the exit from the loss-making waste disposal contract which they have said will be settled by annual cash payments from 2020. With a critical eye, I haven't seen anything else to concern me. The balance sheet is not strong but profitability is good and the business is well diversified. I just feel that sub 360p Kier offers terrific value as a short term trade back over £4 and possibly higher. If Keir crater 40% then something major will have happened and it will need re-assessment. Barring an accounting scandal I don't see what it would be. By the way markets are always irrational that's how we make money!

[minerve 2] 29/3/2019 21:38

Why would they need to do another rights issue? It would be great if someone could deliver the rationale - doubt we will see it. Probably a scare story issued by the hedge fund shorting community.

[ltcm1] 29/3/2019 21:19

Averaging down is leveraging yourself up though, a mugs game ironically played by Woodford himself.

If Keir crater 40% instantly what will you do then DB, buy some more? This is also known as martingaling, the trouble is the market can remain irrational (in your eyes) longer than you can remain solvant.

It is not the case, it is absolutely not the case, that shorters have it in for Woodford and his stocks. The situation is Woodford is doing it to himself.

I really am not an expert here but I would not be surprised to see these dudes come back with another rights issue. I can just sense it from the posts other posters are making.

[danny baker] 29/3/2019 20:21

Today was another good day for averaging down. I'm just 2p a share under water now after picking some shares up at 342p. Shorters seem to have it in for Woodford and his stocks.

[gettingrichslow] 29/3/2019 15:06

So are you still building your position? Must be a big position now eh? 🐶🐶 Woof woof?

[zicopele] 29/3/2019 13:22

He will tell us this is a strategy by Woodford to own more so that they can be lended for shorting activities.

[gettingrichslow] 29/3/2019 13:10

Minny, how much are you down on this now? Great opportunity to 'build a position' today isn't it? I did try to warn you but you were too attached emotionally I think...

[412069] 29/3/2019 13:00

You would think the BOD's of these large service company,s STILL LEFT would have trimmed the fat these lase few years, they never learn whilst being paid F ing fortunes do the want to?