Kier Share Discussion Threads

[kingston78] 20/12/2018 21:45

There are winners at the worst of times. Conversely, there are losers at the best of times. It all depends on the price of entry and exit. Normally, the only winners are market makers, as they try to keep a tight book and make a turn on the spread of every trade.

The good times are over in my opinion. Another recession is coming. Boom and bust cycles have shortened from 40 years to 25 years, then to 10 years. The last recession commenced with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Politics, trade wars, protectionism, migration, climate change and constant wars in some parts of the world make the situation worse. Causes have effects, and effects spread very quickly. I am afraid that most things are negative at present.

It is only my personal opinion. I suspect that worldwide recession will start with China. As the Chinese have become wealthier, surveys indicate that 1/3 of the world's most expensive luxury goods will be consumed by the Chinese by 2030. I think China's economy is in big trouble despite its apparent wealth. Too much money is still tied up in State Owned enterprises, not private companies. There is too much debt, fuelled by the consumer boom. When the music stops it will have adverse consequences throughout the world, as it is now the second largest economy in the world (if not the first already according to some observers).

It takes a long time to build up a business or wealth. Once it has passed its peak it will be downhill all the way. When a share price drops on bad news it plummets to new depths that people could not initially envisage or believe. You may say it is hindsight, but history always repeats itself. You only need to look at a few share charts to realise that what I have said is true, for example, Capita has dropped from £12 to about £1 within three years (even with a £700 rights issue beefing up its balance sheet). The share chart of Kier also tells its own story.

One of the tried and tested investment rules is that one should average up, not average down. There is more chance to make money when confidence is high and more investors are buying. You can find an exit point more easily and make some money.

Conversely when averaging down in a falling market, the share price will continue to fall until positive events influence its direction to move upwards. It would be sensible to wait for a while before considering buying in a falling market. I have noted certain posters on this board are very emotional about their investments in Kier and will top up their shareholdings no matter what. One cannot fight the market.

The trend is your friend. Always go with the flow.

[minerve] 20/12/2018 21:28

Another rough day on the share price so I think a little bit of this is in order.

[stewart64] 20/12/2018 19:44

On the brink of a Bear Market on UK domestics (250)...17446/21324. 650 MPs fiddle whilst Rome burns. The least they can do is give up their gold plated pensions, whilst they argue over 39 billion reparations a trillion is lost in GDP and wealth.

[topvest] 20/12/2018 17:59

Doesn’t bode well for the supposed Interserve one, does it? In any case the share price there is too low. It’s debt for equity or game over.
Times are getting tricky. If Brexit wasn’t bad enough, the Dow is now down over 15% from the all time high, so we are 5% away from an official bear market as the next recession looks ominously around the corner.
Time to keep a good cash balance. We are not there yet, but Q1 could see some great buying opportunities.

[gairich] 20/12/2018 17:46

Gairich will say "when"Hahaha

[kingston78] 20/12/2018 17:42

Looking at some recent news articles Peel Hunt was trimming profit estimates but recommended that Kier's then share price was undervalued in September 2018. How wrong they were. Imagine investors got sucked in at that time at a much higher share price!

Peel Hunt, together with other underwriters of the rights issue, announced at lunch time today that they were going to sell 28,101,162 shares in the range of 360 - 375 p using a book builder process. They have eventually sold these shares today at 360 p. It shows how reluctant the market was in investing in Kier.

As the rights issue price was 409 p and they sold them at 360 p they have lost 49 p a share as the underwriters, amounting to approximately £13.8 million before expenses.

This must be one of the worst rights issues assignments ever undertaken by stockbrokers and investment bankers. They have not gained anything despite earning fees, which have now been negated by the loss described above. Their reputation is tarnished to some extent.

The directors of Kier recommended a final divided of 46 p a share in late September and the dividend was paid on 3rd December. If my memory serves me right the final dividend was payable on 93 million shares in circulation, costing the company about £43 million. All this was amid the rights issue exercise asking investors to support the company. There is no logic to the directors' action paying the dividend because the company could not afford it. This is as much as a political bribe.

[nomdeplume] 20/12/2018 16:58

Zicopele: Oh look, it's up on the day! Good luck with 150p.

[zicopele] 20/12/2018 15:09

It may be worth a punt at 150p.


"It may sound emotional but we are all better if everyone is strong"

Haydn has a brass pair of bollix.

He fired his old mate Sean without even a blink.

[stewart64] 20/12/2018 14:11

Kingston 78 is right to mention intangibles. I don't think anybody understands what that near billion quid of intangibles represents pn Kier's books.( Taylor Wimpey books zilcho, nil, zero).

Not saying Kier are the only FTSE to be bullish on intangible assets.

I like companies with real assets...land, cash and inventories.

[eriktherock] 20/12/2018 13:00

The Debenhams chart is worse !

[kingston78] 20/12/2018 12:00

The underwriters of the rights issue have probably lost money in taking up and selling the rights in a difficult and falling market. They will shy sway from a future rights issue exercise.

A net proceeds of £250 million (meaning £14 million in fees and costs)may not be enough. I think that given sufficient time and space, and in a more favourable environment the Board would have liked to raise more money.

I personally don't like intangible assets. They are hard to value and are subject to accounting manipulation.

What is important is CASH. Cash is king. Other financial figures are subject to interpretation and manipulation, or indeed accounting errors.

More to the point. The share chart speaks louder than words. It is on a downward spiral. I don't see it recover to the £4 level for another few years.

[brexitplus] 20/12/2018 09:54

Getting, b-in-l very close to the action and thus knowledgeable. Doesn’t bother himself with company reports and spin. But does know the industry inside-out.

[gettingrichslow] 20/12/2018 09:39

B+, looks like your brother in law's views were on the money after all...

[zicopele] 20/12/2018 09:32

There will be an emergency rights issue within the year.

[brexitplus] 20/12/2018 08:51

Next fund raising when?

[gettingrichslow] 20/12/2018 08:50

Mattjos, that's the question no-one can answer. As I've said before on here, and Zicopele has said the same, this company is in big trouble. Avoid like the plague unless you're a lemming. And frankly, one of the surest signs of all is that Minerve is a conviction-buyer. He has gone AWOL now of course like with all of his disastrous run of investments.

[mattjos] 20/12/2018 08:40

No surprise on this news.Why take up the Rights issue when the company is still paying dividend .. seemingly funded by debt / cash from this issuance?Just do not understand the financial governance of this company

[essentialinvestor] 20/12/2018 08:38

Not something you see very often.


This sector has been a very efficient destroyer of investment capital.
As mentioned previously it may pay to be cautious.

[ali47fish] 20/12/2018 08:29

dag explain how is this onwards and upwards with the share price right below the ri price

[brexitplus] 20/12/2018 07:53

The Company received valid acceptances in respect of 24,276,286 New Shares, representing approximately 37.66 per cent. of the total number of New Shares to be issued pursuant to the fully underwritten Rights Issue.