Kier Share Discussion Threads

[kingston78] 09/12/2018 22:49

Fundamentals aside we should look at share charts.

Capita has had a £700 rights issue. That is a massive amount to repair the balance sheet (consisting huge amount of intangibles. However,I don't think that the £700 million was enough. Capita was hoping to use the rights issue proceeds and forecast cash flow to pay down its debts, aided by suspension of dividend. Its share price climbed up to 200 p for a while after very heavy falls, but is now languishing at 107 p.

Kier's share chart does not look promising either. It is now in uncharted negative territory. The underwriters will be nursing a paper loss for any rights not taken up. They will offload their shares at the first opportunity just to break even. My chart experience tells me that it will take a long time for Kier to climb back to the 500 p level, if it ever does.

[buywell3] 09/12/2018 22:34

Kier is into PFI contacts

A reason probably for it's debt problem

Some BoD's like spending ... and getting debt on the balance sheet to do so is not a problem

If you have plenty of Government PFI contacts you are bullet proof ... some might have thought

Hence the present mess IMO

Problem is the public now realize that PFI's are costing the taxpayer a bomb.

Plus if a Labour Government gets in ... companies fairly heavily involved/exposed to PFI's are going to get well and truly rogered

The city of course is fully aware of what is going down ... hence the Kier share price chart nose dive

[nomdeplume] 09/12/2018 22:08

I feel we should be grateful to those who know Kier is up the creek and clearly would never invest in such a rubbish company for passing their wisdom on us poor sods. So good of them to take the time. I wonder why they bother, unless.....

[brexitplus] 09/12/2018 17:42

Oh Zimmer, wrong again. I consulted my management consultant wife who has been involved in local government frameworks during her career.

By the way, my b-in-l - you know, the civil engineering project director - says Kier are a ‘right shower.’ He has recently been working with them in a framework project.

[nomdeplume] 09/12/2018 14:36

We are always being told that past performance is no guarantee of future success. However, past performance is no guarantee of future failure either. The demise of Carillion changed the playing field, but should be to Kier's advantage long term. It is important to note that Kier took over some of Carillion's profit making projects, while leaving the loss making ones behind. Profit margins may be small in this sector but this does not mean that projects will always lead to losses. One assumes that the company does not tender aiming to lose money. Yes, the rules have changed post Carillion but, post the RI, Kier looks to be well placed to be successful in the future.

[minerve] 09/12/2018 10:57

I see brexit has been busy Googling frameworks. Stick to fanboy Melrose, it suits you.

LOL

[ntv] 09/12/2018 07:29

under priced contracts as usual all come out in the wash
they can hide it for years but it eventually it rears it's ugly head

[kangaroo joe] 08/12/2018 23:11

Classic cash squeeze near reporting times - to meet covenant test dates for lenders more than anything.

[investstart] 08/12/2018 18:37

Look at the internal management accounts on page 89:


The debt has gone up significantly but according to the annual report Kier had similar amount of debt in March 2018 page 54:


It is interesting to see that they make the debt look smaller for the interim results and at the year-end. Is this a coincidence?

[scburbs] 08/12/2018 18:27

Hi Rhomboid,

The debt moves quite substantially so that the £375m average is nowhere near the low points. Best starting point is P54 of the annual report. Net debt was last over £600m in Feb/Mar 2018 and was c. £500m in October 2017. Clearly current October number much worse than last year, but trend to December was very much cash inflows in last two years.

hxxps://www.kier.co.uk/media/2408/kier-annual-report-2018.pdf

[rhomboid] 08/12/2018 16:39

Looking back at the results presentation;



it’s difficult to see how they can be reconciled to the £624m net debt revealed as the end October position in the rights issue RNS🤔



So what has shifted to explain the disconnect?

I’ve no position long or short but am fascinated

[johncasey] 08/12/2018 16:36

along with the rest of the city parasites..

[johncasey] 08/12/2018 16:35

i will be monday...trust me

[minerve] 08/12/2018 16:08

John

I doubt you are shorting at all. But that's another story.

[johncasey] 08/12/2018 16:03

i'm shorting this company to oblivion...sad but it has to be done

[minerve] 08/12/2018 16:00

Essential & careful - both sound investors. Worth reading their comments.

[careful] 08/12/2018 12:29

Consruction, motor cars, retail, banking
There seems to be too many vulnerable and profitless companies.

Minerve's post is sound enough, but right now, particularly this weekend, we all fear a stock market crash.
The way markets work these days, with 80% of trades made by algo programmes automatically, the markets can crash on modest volume.

If the market is about to fall 20%, all the research and knowledge does not help.
All companies get crushed.

[essentialinvestor] 08/12/2018 12:15

IRV had a net cash position in 2012 from memory.
Then what happens ...some genius decides to go on an acquisition splurge.
By 2014 FY that net cash has morphed in to nearly 300 Million in net debt,
with falling free cash flow giving an early indication of the trouble
that lay ahead.

You will notice with Kier the markets perception started to alter following
this year's HY statement.

[minerve] 08/12/2018 11:51

nomdeplume

I agree about the dividend, there may be a lot of institutional pressure there.

People should not base life on anecdotes and personal experiences alone. I founded a company that listed on the stock exchange and I can assure you that even with the best intentions and experience you can be wrong because you are in the thick of it. Only release FACTS and discuss forward prospects with a heavy dose of conservatism.

Personally, I think taking information from 'the inside' is a fool's game besides being illegal. I personally wouldn't even bother to go there. The accounts, reports, RNS are enough to make an informed decision and that is where you should focus.

See, I told you Brexit wouldn't know about frameworks.