Kier Share Discussion Threads

[nomdeplume] 07/12/2018 16:24

Yes, too many people posting unsupported drivel.

[careful] 07/12/2018 16:23

PE 4.3 yield 17%.
..historic and yesterdays news, but the collapse here is staggering.
rights issue underwritten so success guaranteed.
...even after that market manipulations and potential overhang will drive this down.

Odd really they could have had this deeply discounted at 200p, (twice as many) but they chose to give the traders something to shoot at.

what are they up to?

I have been buying today, unless there is a turnaround I will not take up rights, it would make no sense.

[gettingrichslow] 07/12/2018 16:07

Big problems here. Lemmings only.

[russ1983] 07/12/2018 10:12

I bought some at 3.83 the other day...but still might take up the rights as well as its so cheap

[careful] 07/12/2018 09:30

share price 396, rights price 404.
is anyone taking them up when we can buy in the open market cheaper?

[zicopele] 06/12/2018 23:51

I have missed you Minerva. I hope all is well.

[minerve] 06/12/2018 22:45

Some people need to relax a little here.

Here this will help, come on, stay on the scene...

[zicopele] 06/12/2018 20:10

Muckshifter..your old friends will be just fine. The construction industry will find everyone with skills a home.

Of course some of your old friends may have to leave the opulence of Kier HQ and find homes on construction schemes.

Never mind. The general standard of site office accommodation has improved dramatically in the last few years.

Unfortunately the losses are real. Clients in this post 2008 world have no contingencies to do big final account deals.

The financial crisis and ensuing austerity took a real toll on clients budgets.

[eriktherock] 06/12/2018 20:09

I'm out but ta pointed to support @ 418ish
Maybe ta plays second fiddle to a Company that has no culture of care.

[muckshifter] 06/12/2018 19:57

Although I’m not a shareholder here, I know plenty of the “founder shareholders” from the days when Kier became a buy out from Hanson, so I’ve followed the company’s progress with interest.

The board have to be given credit for getting the placing cash in before the situation became too obvious, as well as the “credit” for getting the company into debt too much in the first place, imho. When you consider that John Dodds was the last CEO of the company to have lived through their escape from collapse by the skin of their teeth in the 70s, perhaps his retirement a few years ago contributed to the subsequent accumulation of poor businesses and high debt.

In the past, construction companies were just that – construction companies, until I believe PFI first got them into a service provider role. Presumably, this was seen as a stabilising influence with long term predictable cash flows which was a benefit to an unstable industry prone to often being badly hit by massive government expenditure cuts, as well as occasional bad jobs. At first I’m sure this service provider role was beneficial, but I think as it became a bigger and bigger part of the turnover of Kier and just about all other construction companies, I think it became a detriment. By the time most construction companies were into this, I expect that: margins decreased because of competition; the extra “stabilityR21; that company accountants thought that this long term stuff provided made the construction side of the business more confident of their ability to survive the odd bad job and perhaps therefore more “competitive”; and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these long term deals themselves became long term liabilities rather than assets because of tighter pricing as every man and his dog joined the party. The thing I always liked about the construction industry was the turning points for a company, when after a couple of years of contractual hell and high losses, the job was finished and the cash outflow usually reversed as final account settlement dealt with claims. I would think there will be an element of that to come here if there have been some bad jobs recently, but that effect will have been diluted by the service stuff.

Anyway,it will be interesting to see what happens here. I think Kier will be OK and probably do very well a year or two down the line – hope so anyway for the sake of a few old friends.

PS I believe John was the last Kier CEO without an accountancy background.

[zicopele] 06/12/2018 19:27

But the share price is falling..and the acquisitions in infrastructure have been commercial disasters.

There was little oversight by the executive of the leaders within infrastructure who then reported profits on jobs which were in deep losses.

Have any of you guys phoned head office to speak to the head of Kier infrastructure and overseas? The dude is gone...and suddenly.

[nomdeplume] 06/12/2018 19:25

What is happening here is about as clear as Brexit!

The underwriters would clearly have expected the RI to be successful. The hedge funds are clearly banking on failure. Unlike Zico, both presumably had / have good reasons for their decisions. However, they cannot both be correct.

[minerve] 06/12/2018 18:06

Oh shut-up zico, you are becoming a bore. We all know you have a silly little spread-bet on the share price falling.

[zicopele] 06/12/2018 17:41

There will be another deeply discounted rights issue in the next year.

The McNicholas purchase is not going well. Following the disastrous May Gurney acquisition.

Do these guys know anything about construction and risk?

[nomdeplume] 06/12/2018 17:17

Given your previous posts, maybe it didn't.

[zicopele] 06/12/2018 16:44

Just how did.the debt increase to £600m?

That number was never mentioned before.

[nomdeplume] 06/12/2018 16:34

azioni2

I am not an expert in this, but as I understand it: you are correct in that if you want to take up your rights, it would be cheaper to buy the same number of shares on the market @ £3.95.

However, say you wanted to bet £100 that when the dust has settled the shares would be worth say £5.00. If the NP rights are selling for 5p you can buy 2000 of them for your £100. If the share price does rise to £5.00, you can buy for 409p and sell for 500p a profit of 2000 x 91p = a profit of £1,700 approximately. (£1,800 - your £100)

Of course, if the shares go down, you do not buy, but you do lose your £100. Quite good odds, if you think about it.

[lewis121] 06/12/2018 16:21

I'll defer to the experts. In the meantime... maybe it means the market thinks the share price will be north of £4.18 after the rights issue closes?

The 9p Nil Paid Rights seem to be being hoovered up (albeit at low volumes) as people offload them.

[azioni2] 06/12/2018 15:43

Could someone please explain why the rights to buy Kier shares @ 4.09 are showing in my account as having a value of 9.25p each when you can buy the shares @ 3.95 ?

Who would want to buy them? Thanks in advance

[philanderer] 06/12/2018 14:11

Hedge Funds Smell More Blood in British Building

Short-sellers have already had a field day with construction group Kier. A game of chicken over its rights offer is going to hurt somebody.

[brexitplus] 06/12/2018 11:42

I would have expected the share price to be somewhere between the pre-rights issue price and the rights issue price, but this happened with Playtech.

Yesterday’s City AM article is interesting. Apology if already posted.

“City Index analyst Ken Odeluga, said the market interest in Kier was so high because it was “the closest outsourcer” to Carillion in terms of business model.

It appears construction groups have borne the brunt of investor’s worries after Kier’s rights issue, as companies specialising in non-construction contracts have been shielded from the worst of the share sell-offs, with health and transport service provider Serco’s price down only one per cent.

Security and cleaning services provider Mitie even reported gains this morning, perhaps fuelled by its announcement it would switch part of its fleet of vans to electric vehicles in the next two years.

The notable exception, however, was Capita, provider of tech and IT-related services, whose shares dropped around four per cent today.

City A.M. understands that non-construction outsourcers feel they have been hit harder by sustained uncertainty around the terms of Brexit than the Carillion crisis.

But this has not stopped the government encouraging companies to write so-called living wills - which Capita, Serco and Sopra Steria have already agreed to do - to ensure contingency plans are in place incase they suffer the same fate as Carillion.

[lewis121] 06/12/2018 11:36

@ marksp2011 Please can you explain the rationale of that? Thanks.

[marksp2011] 06/12/2018 08:49

Time to buy the XR shares?
Drive up the price so increase the price of the nil paids and then let those lapse?

Brave, foolhardy or what as the rights are worth nothing

[nomdeplume] 05/12/2018 21:47

Jeffian Cacher son âge, c'est supprimer ses souvenirs. - Arletty

[jeffian] 05/12/2018 19:11

#1375,

Moi aussi.