Kier Share Discussion Threads

[bathboy2] 18/1/2022 08:26

You really are a dreamer stdy, this is about kier getting more money from the markets, exactly as carillion did, when on their push, they can hide losses as restructuring costs, until everyone wakes up and see's it for what it is. Not enough detail out there for the markets to react, better be explained on Thursday,

[stutes] 18/1/2022 08:08

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/01/18/kier-reported-to-be-in-talks-to-buy-tilbury-douglas/

How can buying Tilbury Douglas be considered- K hasn't paid a dividend for years and , if reports are correct, now wants another rights issue to fund the rumoured takeover?

[stdyeddy] 18/1/2022 07:32

Having a good little chat with yourself this morning wolly, with your 'bathboy' account. You are silly. Am not surprised you're babbling away today though; your two great construction losses coming together -- lost on a long bet on Interserve and lost even more on a short bet on Kier. How ironic.

Regarding actual events, the talks are 'exclusive' -- that's Interserve's choice, not Kier's, so it looks to me that this is being driven by a need for long-term survival and access to Kier's huge list of framework contracts. The TD pension trustees might be as big a sponsor of this move as the TD owners (the banks). My guess is that there will be very little money involved, if any. By now, TD will be as cleaned up as Kier Living was, with little debt and a massively slimmed down business. Just for once, Davies holds all the cards. He has been respectful of shareholders, so whatever the deal is, it'll be a good one for holders here.

[russ1983] 18/1/2022 07:26

How much will the share price fall at open I wonder.

They need a spectacular cheap price to convince investors this is the right thing to do..

[bathboy2] 18/1/2022 06:22

Been looking, interserve (basically banks and financial institutions) sold rmd and the FM sides of interserve for around 300m, to my reckoning they need around 250m + for the construction arm, which now looks to be a 500m turnover business, seemingly making losses, probably servicing debt. If kier have turned the corner, you have to ask, why would they want,

[wallywoo] 18/1/2022 06:20

Bby and mgns hardly ever make acquisitions in the sector. They are by far the most successful in the sector. Kier's whole problem can be put down to 3 acquisitions between 2013 -2018.In deed all the sectors disasters (Carillion, Interserve, Jarvis, Connaught) can be credited to bad acquisitions. Do these companies never learn?Perhaps kier will launch another equity issue to fund it!!!

[bathboy2] 18/1/2022 05:40

Look to all the mistakes of the past, this type of scenario has not gone well. I would think, as a shareholder everyone will be disappointed that if kier are doing well, that any monies are not being distributed via dividends. Seeing that shareholders have propped them up. With kier supposedly trying to simplify their structure, why would they want to try to integrate another business with all the costs involved. Shame this news had to come from the news wire's and not the company direct, will be very interesting what the markets think,

[stdyeddy] 17/1/2022 23:20

I used to know them quite well. Seems they're one seventh the size of Kier currently. Is there a big tax asset in there? Why Kier and not one of the others? That makes me think it's not about the money, because whatever the cost, Kier could be outbid by practically any of the big construction firms if TD is worth having. I'm intrigued.

[petersw1] 17/1/2022 23:16

Seems it is the last part of Interserve that hasn't been sold on by the administrators as yet. A quick scan of tilburydouglas.co.uk gives me the impression they handle similar scale and types of project as Kier.

[stdyeddy] 17/1/2022 23:10

Companies House is showing a full set of accounts filed for Tilbury Douglas on 26 March last year, under Interserve's name. Balance sheet shows a negative £86m nav. Pension was reported as having a £100m+ asset.

If I'm reading this right and TD has a negative net asset value, maybe there's no money involved. Too early to speculate I suppose, but there must be a very good reason why these two firms, both formerly crushed by debt, are thinking about getting married. Could it be that the Interserve pension trustees see protection under Kier's wing? I can't wait to hear the details.

TD turnover was a little under half a billion, with a whopping £122m loss, presumably from massive writedowns resulting at the end of the Interserve era.

[stdyeddy] 17/1/2022 22:51

My oh my! Thanks for that Peter. That is a real surprise. And there we all were, thinking that Kier was nursing itself back to health when this amazing land grab happens. The update on Thursday is going to be VERY interesting. I wonder how and why Davies likes this deal. Sky has been very reliable on Kier stories over the last year or two; maybe we'll get a little more over the next couple days.

I wonder what price is being asked. The old Interserve business is a shadow of its former self, so not huge, although I'd be very interested to hear from anyone with genuine knowledge on here about how not huge it is. I doubt very much that it will be serviced with debt, but there might be a little rights issue. Or there might be a very limited rights issue -- Halfords did one a few weeks back and you had to be quick to grab a piece. The shares responded very positively afterwards. Or maybe there'll be a buy-in.

Davies has been ultra-cautious so far, so I imagine it will not be an expensive disaster, and he is well aware of Kier's history, so he must feel confident about getting shareholders behind it. And maybe, just maybe, the last six months have been so good earnings wise, that Kier might actually have the cash already. All will be revealed very soon. Definitely not what I was expecting though. I watch with interest.

[bathboy2] 17/1/2022 22:14

Unbelievable, no lessons been learnt, a construction firm spending money they haven't got, more debt to service in a high risk, low margin industry

[bathboy2] 15/1/2022 12:52

How does anyone think next Thursday will go, what will it reveal, quick look around at construction, and even house builders, all shares of some major players like bby, gfrd, Morgan sindall, vistry, Taylor wimpey, are downward trending over the last 6 months or so

[stutes] 12/1/2022 14:05

K provides a trading update on 20th - we shall have a glimpse how K is managing price hikes and shortages.

[stutes] 11/1/2022 17:29

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/01/11/ray-orourkes-successor-starts-work/

Wait and see how k & LoR fare and if they end up together?

[stutes] 11/1/2022 12:48

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/01/11/scottish-contractor-goes-under-with-loss-of-33-jobs/

The margin squeeze could go on for some time (energy material, labour and shortages). Those that survive should be able to hike margin over time but it depends on where the balance of power is in the supply chain.

[bathboy2] 10/1/2022 13:09

Only firms making 10m profits have to fund retrofitting of cladding, that's kier of the hook possibly, lol

[stutes] 10/1/2022 12:56

K having sold KL , how much is K exposed to recladding past developments? Why should builders be on the hook for recladding when it should be the suppliers or HMG for allowing the procedure to be self certifying/properly policed.

I cannot see,if developers have to pay for recladding, why farmers are paid by the State to look after their own assets? Surely the standard is each industry funds their own problems and managing their assets properly?

[propdeveloper] 06/1/2022 12:28

This is less interesting than the headline makes



It's over 12 years so £230M a year, but if you remember the contract broke with Amey and Kier took over on an interim basis. I would imagine Kier would be bidding. The Council's words are interesting in the article, and quite honestly do not think they're in a position of strength with the current climate. Kier could re-appropriate workers onto more lucrative frameworks if they need to. There's a lot going on in the midlands.

[propdeveloper] 06/1/2022 12:04

Well they do seem to hit the leaderboard on new wins and frameworks as per Construction News. I'd be a bit worried if they won everything - it means they're too cheap.

I honestly can't call if trading update will be good or not. Davies keeps his cards close to his chest - even at Wates. The only way this stock will move is with sustainable (note that word - something that didn't happen previously - the dividends were too big and killing the business) reliable dividends. It's too early for that, but maybe there is a hint or a clue in the trading update.

Crosswinds are Covid (Supply chain), Brexit (lack of tradesman and supply chain) and how well they insulated their framework deals from impending price rises. Materials seem to have stabilised now, but we have labour issues where people are trying it on. I had a chippy just before Xmas obfuscate his pricing in per m2 and I think he would have been earning £500 to £600 per day! Consequently he'll never ever work for me. There a lot of that in the industry currently.

Fingers crossed for a good update. Kier need a shot in the arm.

[bathboy2] 06/1/2022 08:16

Kier seem to be doing a lot in the residential building market, after selling their own property arm, which would have had large margins, working for others on resi projects will be on much tighter margins, also they are losing out on large infrastructure contracts, but some only mention the wins, never the losses

[stdyeddy] 05/1/2022 21:02

Kier wins 142 rental home job at BBC TV centre site

[stdyeddy] 04/1/2022 17:40

And a HNY to you too Peter. I feel the same regarding the update. Kier has been winning a lot of contracts. Most of the other large construction firms have been managing inflation well so far, so I'm not expecting much impact from that. Davies has a tendency to under-sell so whatever good news we get will be pretty reliable, I reckon. A couple of weeks to go. Price btw, is very low at the moment, so a good chance of upward movement imv.

[petersw1] 04/1/2022 11:35

Happy New Year everyone!
I just looked up the date when we can expect the First Half Trading update.
Thursday 20th January is the date to look forward to.
Obviously the naysayers will decry that lack of audited financial data, but since I'm willing to give the management some credence I'll be looking forward to read what they have to say. It should give us some indications where we are with dasty1's "ifs".
Personally, I am expecting them to be on target. With last month's Covid worries looking less concerning, it feels a good time to be holding.

[kierculpa] 02/1/2022 14:56

Yes, more likely to go up than down. 50 per cent seems ambitious though. The market doesnt trust this sector. Margins are too small and unreliable.