Kier Share Discussion Threads

[zicopele] 20/1/2022 20:36

Glad to keep you amused guys.

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 19:18

Wow. Caught and bowled sicko. I wonder if advfn have considered banning you. They really should.

[petersw1] 20/1/2022 18:56

Zico, what of what I wrote do you find to be a misrepresentation?
If you need help remembering what your posts edited to "." were before you edited them then I'd imagine ADVFN would be able to help with that, if there were any significant legal reason.

[zicopele] 20/1/2022 17:10

Peter,

Can you please remove the scurrilous misrepresentation of my comment?

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 17:04

Thanks for the explanation on 04/20 too. Basically it says, pay suppliers quickly, which is why they've maintained the 34 avg payment period (which is very quick by construction standards).

Anyway, given that most businesses have been crushed by covid and its outcomes like inflation and labour shortages, Kier seems to be doing well. Davies traditionally immediately broadcasts any bad news, so things look good, especially considering the circumstances. Looking fwd to seeing the full numbers. Also, I'd like to hear more about Tilbury Douglas, but it looks as though we'll have to rely on skynews for that.

Last time, from memory, I think they were about two weeks ahead of the official news. I look fwd to hearing about a mostly all-share deal or no deal.

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 16:56

He's very bitter peter. I think we eventually decided that sicko was a disturbed former Kier middle manager who'd been sacked for something embarrassing. He used to have an obsession with posting on here, and as you've said, writing libellous nonsense and then deleting it a couple of days later. Evidently his mental illness has not abated.

Hi sicko!! How's the security hut these days?

[petersw1] 20/1/2022 16:05

Hi Zico, I know you sometimes accidentally lose your old posts so I'll help keep this one around for you:
I would not like to think you were ashamed of posting potentially illegal content now would I?

To anyone passing by Zico, has repeatedly posted and edited away such claims on here on a regular basis.
If what he is posting is true then he is privy to insider information that should be disclosed in the correct way. If it is not true then it is a malicious attempt to manipulate the market.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/1/2022 15:57

wally - the numbers I used were the average net debt at:


31st December 2020:


"Net debt at 31 December 2020 of GBP354m (FY20: GBP310m), average month-end net debt stable at GBP436m (FY20: GBP436m)"

and

31st December 2021 - see today's RNS.

"Kier Group plc ("Kier" or "the Group"), a leading infrastructure services and construction group issues a trading update for the six months ended 31 December 2021"


They were the numbers as at the half year stage - but they are 12 months apart and therefore comparable in terms of working capital cycles.

[nomdeplume] 20/1/2022 15:47

Dropped in to see what the new normal looks like, and guess what? It looks like the same old normal to me.

[wallywoo] 20/1/2022 15:32

Good post imastu, one comment.


The current balance sheet is nearly 7 months old now (June 21), not end December as you suggest.


As usual, other than saying that there's a cash outflow there has been little real information on how much.


With a acquisition likely in the next few weeks, and more builders than ever running into trouble. This remains a daft investment which is highly unlikely to pay a dividend any time soon. And don't forget the ftse 350 is nearly at a all time high. The market is due a correction imo.

[petersw1] 20/1/2022 14:44

This is the 04/20 thing:

[bathboy2] 20/1/2022 14:14

How do you work out positive, when down 5%

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 14:14

I would much prefer for another supplier to attempt to buy Kier 😊

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 14:12

Obviously it's an early update -- the full numbers will reveal a little more. So far though, broadly positive, especially given the inflation story that some people had been pushing, and I reckon worth more than a fwd p/e of 4.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/1/2022 14:06

Yes, I have forgotten...

No, re the 04/20 note - maybe they said something then (April 2020?) I guess (procurement policy) it was to do with paying their suppliers on time (which they used not to do) and the consequent negative impact on their cash, i.e. net debt will be higher because for the change in policy.

It's just really difficult, maybe impossible until they get to 'steady state' to see what the underlying cash generation is.

Notwithstanding that, I see them on an earnings multiple of around 4.8, based on their medium plan and consequent turnover and margins, continuing to improve if they deliver. Similar (but higher) than another company in the sector, wouldn't you know? Maybe KIE should buy them (with another placement), trouser their £100m net cash, solve the net debt position, and we could all live happily ever after...

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 13:56

A reasonable summary masturpig, though you forgot the outstanding VAT bill of £18m (I think, from memory). Do you have any idea what the 04/20 note refers to?

Btw, I don't see why you're bothering to defend your comments from last year re trade financing, but the fact that they've reduced their trade payables by £42m and maintained their 34 days avg payment terms to suppliers will obviously reduce cash on hand. That's the same for any business.

[marksp2011] 20/1/2022 13:29

It is an unfortunate fact that Cash and cash flow are immediate not "medium-term"

It looks like they are still leaking cash as Current Debt > Old Debt+Cash inflows.

Thsi isn't what I was expecting to see and isn't in line with the "success"

progress being in line with management expectations doesn't matter in the slightest as the management didn't share what their expectations were and I don't know if their expectations are consistent with me wanting to hold their shares.

If management expectations are to draw a salary and bonus until the thing collapses then.............all is good.

I have no idea what is happening really, they could be going great guns or, debts could be piling on and the thing is going to collapse. Either scenario can be inferred from the wording here.

[wallywoo] 20/1/2022 13:26

Up well over 130p (12 percent) since my investment last Monday thanks.

[kangaroo joe] 20/1/2022 13:16

How's Polymetal doing Wally?

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 12:19

The order book is up, inflationary costs are under control, medium targets are unchanged. All good. Fwd p/e for this business is about 4. Still a bargain. Kier is probably more likely to get bought than TD.

[stdyeddy] 20/1/2022 12:17

The update today:

Kier continues to win new, high quality and profitable work in its markets on terms and at rates which reflect the bidding discipline and risk management introduced under the Group's Performance Excellence programme.

We remain focused on winning work through our long-standing client relationships and regionally based operations.

The Group's order book at 31 December 2021 was c.GBP8.0bn, an increase of c.4% from the year-end position (FY21: GBP7.7bn).

The order book continues to be underpinned by significant long-term framework agreements. New awards exceeded the prior year, albeit the growth in order book was later than anticipated due to procurement delays.

Recent contract awards include:

-- Infrastructure Services:
o Highways - over GBP1bn of work awarded over the last six months including the design and build of the A66 Northern-Trans-Pennine schemes

o Infrastructure & Utilities - appointed by Thames Water to deliver GBP66m improvement project at Mogden Sewage Treatment Works

-- Construction - appointed to the GBP7bn Department for Education 2021 Construction Framework; appointed to design and build GBP93m worth of new clinical buildings at Luton and Dunstable hospital; appointed as preferred bidder to deliver GBP36m new Sunderland eye hospital

o Kier Places - extensions of two existing long-term contracts worth a combined GBP71m

Net debt

The Group is expecting a cash outflow in the first half of the year due to the typical unwind of working capital.

The Group's average month-end net debt has significantly reduced from GBP436m to below GBP200m period over period as a result of the successful capital raise, the sale of Kier Living and cash generation. This was partially impacted by a GBP42m reduction in the average month-end KEPS balance, payment of adjusting items, capex and cash unwind of procurement policy note 04/20. The Group's supplier payment days remain unchanged period over period.

Medium Term Value Creation Plan

The Group remains confident in achieving its medium-term targets of:


Revenue: GBP4.0 - 4.5bn
Adjusted operating profit c. 3.5%
margin:
Cash conversion of operating c. 90%
profit:
Balance sheet: Sustainable net cash position with capacity
to invest
Dividend: Sustainable dividend policy: c.3 x cover
through the cycle