Kier Share Discussion Threads

[wallywoo] 11/11/2021 12:48

Oh dear, poor old Sparty. How can you be sooo wrong??. Buys SYME at 44p and encourages others to do so (now 17).


He is a economics graduate who thinks there's no inflation. And to top it all, he thinks Kier are a great investment.


I think you need to go back to school, Sparty. Obviously didn't learn anything the first time.

[bathboy2] 11/11/2021 06:11

Not sure if the reason for the seemingly hasty decision of kier MD for utilities which rail is also part off, is what your saying zico, losses ahead, and with R&W Rail suddenly shutting down, the rail side of things, they might not so rosy as previously thought. I do think that this year's results, will not be matched next year, and the circus will begin again

[bathboy2] 10/11/2021 09:02

Stutes why are you posting yesterdays news, we can all read it for ourselves, all companies are struggling with materials and labour costs, bigger companies with supply chain lock ins can not be affected at the moment, but this will probably change as the new year/new prices scenario comes in to play. We will then find out, if the big companies can the go back to their client with these rises, this could be the crunch time. The smaller concerns like the utilities company you mention have probably took the telecoms contract on a price and with the price /labour issues they couldn't sustain the losses and had to take radical action, only my opinion

[stutes] 10/11/2021 06:56

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2021/11/09/complete-utilities-suspends-trading/

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2021/11/09/barry-mcnicholas-to-leave-kier/

Is the margin being squeezed by increased competition or less work?

[stutes] 10/11/2021 06:54

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2021/11/09/barry-mcnicholas-to-leave-kier/

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2021/11/09/complete-utilities-suspends-trading/

[wallywoo] 09/11/2021 16:04

You keep talking about the profit and cash Kier are generating. However, the facts clearly show that in the last 3 years Kier have raised £491m from shareholders and the balance sheet has the exact same amount of tangible cash / assets (-£265m). So they have generated nothing and spent £491m.Whether, they can generate anything at all this year has yet to be proven. With the large amount of negative net assets, I would be surprised if they can (easily the worst in the sector by around £350m to £400m).

[stdyeddy] 09/11/2021 15:31

For anyone else; I hope you're all doing well and managing your investments well.

A few thoughts -- one of the things that I've found most interesting in the sector is that ALL of the construction firms are beating expectations in terms of profit and their management of inflation costs. So I am anticipating that Kier will continue its two-year habit of improving margins and will produce a better-than-expected profit at H1 when we see news in mid-January.

Regarding Davies's thankyou speech (for CEO of the year), it's obvious that his confidence continues, stemming from a successful turnaround of the business and the recent cash-raising. Moreover, if we look back at September's contract wins, Kier is continuing to outperform virtually all of its peers and is snapping at the heels of sector leader Morgan Sindall. I am guessing that Kier Property's surprise performance in September, as the largest commissioner of deals to subcontractors, is a sign of great things to come. Kier Property is apparently generating the highest margin within the group's businesses and Davies and Kesterton highlighted KP at the last results presentation, specifically for its greater profit potential.

In terms of the sp, Kier is out of trouble but the shareprice is still at a very low level with a FORWARD p/e of about 4 assuming the business is now making approx £100m annually. In January we should finally see the clearing of the remaining tax deferral of £18m, minimal exceptional costs and an outright profit as well as good cash generation. Good news from Kier continues to surprise a market with low expectations for our favourite construction firm, so I anticipate another big rise going into January, but possibly before, depending on the wider economy (which seems to be learning to live with covid).

The other thing in the far background which is not far away from the minds of some investors here is the extraordinary number of companies which are receiving bid approaches from US investors. JP Morgan put their view out yesterday on the great value in the UK stockmarket from a US perspective. Recent approaches/takeovers include Inmarsat, Morrisons, Metro, Blue Prism, G4S, Vectura, John Laing (getting close to home now!), Meggitt, Ultra Electronics and on and on. My feeling is that Kier is a potential bid opportunity, though I would hate to see a deal in the £2-£2.50 region, which would fall far short of the potential value here. However, I'm not counting on a bid here; the business is making perfectly good progress on its own terms and assuming that continues, it will be back in the FTSE250 in 2022. I'm looking fwd to banking a bigger profit then.

Broadly speaking, things seem to be heading in the right direction for now, and since we are still at a very very low price, I'm confident about Kier and keen to increase my stake again if I can. Good luck everyone.

[stdyeddy] 09/11/2021 15:21

Time to momentarily engage with the thicko on this board again. 🥱 As you have shown, I said it 'might' IF we have a good profit number. Well we didn't get the right profit number even though we got plenty of good news so the share price obviously didn't continue its charge. I'm neutral on the share price for now, having banked a profit in the mid-120s (like most people here, but not you, eh wolly!) though I still have a holding. I'm a buyer at anything below 106p, in anticipation of a spike upwards in January.

Spartz, bathbrain is acutally wolly -- it's his other 'handle'. It's obvious when you look at the timing and language of his posts.

[wallywoo] 09/11/2021 13:58

Nice to see you Sty / Peter (same person!!). You have been keeping a low profile as the share price has dropped 20 percent. Let's take a little trip back 5 months, see what you were forecasting then;


"stdyeddy?

10 Jun '21 - 10:59 - 22068 of 23155

?0  0 ;0

Nope, Woodford got sold a different story tnt; that Kier would make long money from house-building and faster (smaller) money from contract work, and pay out big dividends. We are in at a better place, with Kier having bounced off the bottom, massively oversold, because the market was worried about it being another Carillion. That fate has been averted. I agree with you about £3. IF we have a good profit number for H2 I think £3 might be achieved during September as we rush into the FTSE250."


Oh dear!!!! So stdy's forecast 300p, actual 107p. IMO your forecast will look even more comical in a month or two.

[petersw1] 09/11/2021 09:23

My best guess is that he’s referring to the announcements in the “Autumn Budget and Spending Review”. That was 7 days before the video came out, so is stretching a bit the definition of a few.
I haven’t spotted anything else that appears relevant.

[stdyeddy] 09/11/2021 00:55

A nice speech and a deserved win. Should help his relations with the press too. Peter, do you know what he was referring to when he said 'announcements over the last few days'?

[petersw1] 08/11/2021 22:37

5 days old this news, but I see Andrew Davies won Building Awards CEO of the Year award.
Here's a short video of him talking about the turnaround and looking forward a little:

[stutes] 08/11/2021 08:09

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2021/11/08/steel-prices-jump-for-seventh-time-this-year/

Inflation likely to hurt rollout of commercial/private tenders.

[petersw1] 05/11/2021 11:29

Some interesting trades this morning. A series of 3 block trades went through at 107.6p, 3,081,418 shares in total. Not seen such volume since early October. Immediate rise in price following that.

[stutes] 04/11/2021 16:19

Who is paying the 16% reported hike in cement?

[stutes] 04/11/2021 08:29

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2021/11/04/price-hikes-and-shortages-shoot-wildgoose-down/

I agree construction firms face higher prices from suppliers,the possibility of contracted subcontractors unable to absorb hikes, either going bust or forcing contractors to pay for the hikes/delays.

Overall construction firms face a perfect storm of inflation, shortages higher interest rates,

[bathboy2] 03/11/2021 18:20

Hardly a fair comparison, 1 company with huge cash reserves and proven track record of profits and pay a dividend , against an indebted company, with a lot still to prove, and no dividend and no idea when they are on the horizon

[petersw1] 03/11/2021 15:35

Just seen the trading update from Morgan Sindall Group.
It is another example of a major construction group stating that inflation and supply chain issues are manageable:

Since the time of the half year results on 4 August 2021, trading has continued to be strong. Inflation in the supply chain and the availability of materials and labour have remained manageable. Based on the performance to date and with good visibility of secured workload through to the end of the year, it is now expected that the Group will deliver a full year performance which is slightly above its previous expectations.

The same is likely to apply to Kier in my opinion and it adds to my confidence that the Kier management will hit their stated targets.

[bathboy2] 01/11/2021 16:54

Hi gixxer, getting a bonus in last week's means nothing, big companies have to portray a certain way, just look at 1 of the firms who went by the wayside in the last week or so, they were still hiring staff in the last 7 days before their demise. In the last days of ROK, their CEO sent a email to a large number of staff, and said keep on ROcKing

[gixxer1] 01/11/2021 14:11

@bathboy2. By saying 'Could even be Carillion timeline' you are implying that Kie may go bust. I said in a previous post that Kie just gave their employees a nice little one off bonus - hardly the sign of another Carillion??? Surely Kie would want to be saving every penny it can?