Kier Share Discussion Threads

[bathboy2] 16/9/2021 08:50

How can anyone explain how with 350m coming in the last few months, that they are only 313m better off with month end debt largely unchanged, looks to me the issues are largely unchanged

[muckshifter] 16/9/2021 08:34

Very satisfactory results, imo. They have succeeded in making many of the changes that I felt were long needed.

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 08:31

The webcast has started.

[tnt99] 16/9/2021 08:12

The only way is up baby for you and me now come on kier With HS2 contracts rolling in this rebound has only just started

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 08:05

Also, masturpig had a query, I think, on tax -- this might come in handy;

Given the reported losses recorded over the last two financial years, the Group has a deferred tax asset of GBP138.0m recognised at 30 June 2021 (FY20: GBP111.0m). The asset has increased in the period due to the change in future UK corporation tax rates and movement in the defined benefit pension liability. Based on the Group's forecasts, it is expected that this will be utilised over a period of approximately 12 years.

[johnbuythedips] 16/9/2021 08:04

FOUR! Hide. Masturpig wants a round.
Remember those days of 43p and Wally calling Suspension. LOL

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 08:03

And incredibly, we are at NET CASH. £3m.

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 08:03

First press article:

KIER RETURNS TO PROFIT AFTER TWO-YEAR TURNAROUND

[marksp2011] 16/9/2021 07:43

Zico

yes I noticed that. It suggested to me that the month end debt was pretty static and was simply dressed to look good. The KL/rights funding has cleared it out so we will see what the real number looks like.

What really matters is the FCF generation and cash conversion which looks pretty reasonable givem where we started and, I expect the debt funding would have been steep..... would you have lent KIE money so that will help matters too.

Looks like a pretty stable business.another year and it may look like a good business if anything in this sector with big execution risks and supermarket margings can ever be a good business.

KIE is aspiring to a margin lower that ULVR. that probably tells you all you need to know about the sector as a whole.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 16/9/2021 07:43

Ah, Kier. I remember them.

Not going to waste a day on this, the golf course awaits. I don't hold, and am not going to hold any time soon, but follow with interest...

The main takeaway I have from reading these is the compressed cashflow statement in the Free Cash Flow section of the Financial Review. Basically £150m of EBITDA, plus £60m of working capital movement, minus £60m of delayed tax payment. So £150m or so of cash generation. From which they spend capex (£50m or so - probably more in future, but maybe higher EBITDA in the first place?) and end with (after other adjustments) £90m free cash flow.

So going forward they (broadly) make £100m in cash. Which is pretty good. Now in future they will have to pay tax at some point, which will take up to 25% off the cash generation number. But there will be reduced interest (not to the extent of tax). But something like £80-£100m of cash generation, with a market cap of (446m shares) of around £600m. 6-7 times cash generation. Something like that.

As an investment case, still not wholly convinced, but it's decently cheap; they also still tend to be economical with the truth - supplier chain financing still there of £80m, that average net figure needs more explanation than just 'the monies from the rights issue and the KL sale came in late' - it's cheap but I know cheaper...

The presentation later should give some more detail. I'll be in the rough somewhere on the 4th.

Final point - the City must love them. £30m+ in fees from the placement, plus another £10m from the KL sale? Stand by for them to be canonised by the scribblers...

[ontheforks] 16/9/2021 07:32

Not going bust is a good result for shareholders wouldn't you agree most have now reduced there average one way or another only the short brigade are losing money now

[zicopele] 16/9/2021 07:27

Lucky they got Kl sold and rights issue away. Otherwise average debt would have increased. Is that what you guys call good results?

[johnbuythedips] 16/9/2021 07:23

Zico lol. ‘Short at 78p’. Wally’s tea boy.
I think we need to rewind to not so long go
when Kier were the most shorted stock out there and in the brink.
Well done Sir Andrew.

[ontheforks] 16/9/2021 07:18

How's the short going zico you made up your losses yet.... Oh wait no its not been below £1.21 in ages so will pass on your expert advice 👍🏻 good luck longs 👍🏻

[marksp2011] 16/9/2021 07:17

Decent results
Decent FCF and cash conversion rates which is all that matters.
Margin improvement.

"Profit" is a nonsense - an accounting remainder.

[zicopele] 16/9/2021 07:13

They made £5m....they think. Still in bad shape.

[ontheforks] 15/9/2021 21:12

Make or break time let's hope Davis is more confident now he's already thrown everything in the pot except the kitchen sink last couple of years gave us all the reality check we knew was needed let's hope its about to pay off this time good luck longs 👍🏻

[stdyeddy] 15/9/2021 20:43

No answer from wolly. Seems he just can't bring himself to say it. He knows the price is going up!

[stutes] 15/9/2021 14:15

Kier reports tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much more work has to be done to the balance sheet in reducing debt and when a meaningful dividend will be paid to shareholders.

The Tempsford HQ is still to be sold(?. How is K maintaining margin in a period of inflation and lorry driver shortages?

[petersw1] 15/9/2021 14:10

On the way up after 6m shares traded in 5 min.

[stdyeddy] 15/9/2021 13:31

wolly, answer the question; you like making predictions -- do you think Kier will go up tomorrow or down?

[wallywoo] 15/9/2021 12:59

Was about to reply saying that SNT looks a lot like a "boiler room" stock (tiny market cap, no volume for months, then ramped to heaven in a pump and dump).


Then I realized who posted it!!!

[johnbuythedips] 15/9/2021 11:39

Hi Wally. Haven’t you gone to hell yet?
Guess who’s just made an absolute killing on SNT this morning?
You guessed it. Me!

[wallywoo] 15/9/2021 10:26

As usual, trying to knock the BB poster (with made up information) not the facts I present. Soooo predictable, Stdy.


Sad really!

I think tomorrow will be interesting. The results will be awful, but Kier will spin really hard that the future is bright (let's face it they tried to spin the last 2 years were good, when they lost £100m cash in each!!). I don't believe the market will fall for it, especially now they have 454 percent more shares to keep happy than 3 years ago!

[stdyeddy] 15/9/2021 10:19

So wolly, do you think the shareprice will go down tomorrow? I have a very strong feeling that it will be going up, but since you seem to be a bit of an expert on construction, now that you've lost a load on Interserve long, and lost even more trying to short Kier, I'm interested in your accrued wisdom. What is the wolly prediction for the shareprice tomorrow?