Kier Share Discussion Threads

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 16:56

Less than 0.5% down on the day. I predict a rise tomorrow.

[zicopele] 16/9/2021 16:52

Interesting

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 16:37

Order book is apparently at the same level as last year so far, and if we took a pessimistic view in terms of growth and assumed none, despite the massive govt commitments on infrastructure spending (all in core Kier areas) and if we were also pessimistic on margin growth, even though Kier has grown margin in every sector of its business, and assumed only 3%, then we are looking at about £50m for the next six months (which we are almost half-way through) and cash generation of about £45m, so potentially net cash of almost £50m by the end of December. We will know in just 4 months.

However, since India and China are apparently ramping up steel production to exploit the global opportunity presented by temporarily higher prices, I think that there will be a rush of new work as prices drop and/or the backlog of work becomes too big to ignore, so I reckon we might be looking at £4bn for the next year, 3.25% margin, and £2bn for the next six months and £55m in profits.

[petersw1] 16/9/2021 16:06

Anyone have any thoughts on what the results for the current half year could look like?

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 15:56

The IC upgrade is just the first of many re-rates now. As the market digests the results, we should see broker upgrades coming through.

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 15:34

The great result for me was that net debt was actually eliminated and we are at net cash already. I had suggested that this was a possibility but wasn't sure how it would all shake-out, Kier being a complicated animal. Last year net debt was £310m and the incoming cash from the KL sale and the cash raise was about £330m, with an additional £12m on working capital payment for Kier Living. However, Kier also cleared almost all of the deferred taxes (deferred as part of covid support) AND reduced the supplier early-payment scheme (KEPS) by £44m (more than a third), and still ended up positive, through the £93m in cash generated during the year -- a brilliant outcome.

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 15:27

Just gone positive. Looks like it's going to end up on the day.

[petersw1] 16/9/2021 15:24

My take here is that we just got a sold set of result with no real surprises. Long term holders will continue holding but with more confidence given solid confirmation of what you could previously infer.
Volume of trades today seems fairly low to me for a results day.
I suspect main sellers are people that were looking to sell but decided to wait out for the results.
IC has moved from sell to hold:

[bathboy2] 16/9/2021 15:18

Read it again it says year end debt

[spagboll] 16/9/2021 14:20

Being positive about it that means KIE has 435m GBP more cash than you thought it had. So that has to be great news!

[spagboll] 16/9/2021 14:13

Bathboy I think you misread the results. This is the extract;

"-- Net cash / (debt) at 30 June 2021 of GBP3m (FY20: GBP(310)m), average month-end net debt of GBP(432)m (FY20: GBP(436)m)

-- Includes reduction of GBP46m in supply-chain financing

-- Receipt of capital raise and Kier Living sale proceeds arriving in the final months of the year. Limited impact on average net debt"

So at year end there was net cash of 3m GBP - due to the capital raise and KL sale.

[wallywoo] 16/9/2021 14:02

Gixxer, the market has not responded to these figures because Kier was expected to have poor figures (and partly because every other builder is up 2 percent on a good trading day).


My points are because they are trying to dress them up as good figures!


It's whether they can generate any cash going forward that will decide the future share price But it is valued very highly now, any bad news will hit the share price and because of this is likely to drift lower over the coming months (down to 100).

Bathboy, historical average net debt figures (for year to end June) tell us little because £110m from kl sale and £241m equity issue were both received at the end of June

[gixxer1] 16/9/2021 13:46

Wally - I am sure if you are seeing these figures, then others are too. If so, why hasn't the share price crashed? Surely the big investors and Banks would be calling KIE out? By the way, I don't profess to have the 'market knowledge' of the investors on here. I am someone who looks at both sides of things and then makes his own mind up :) I work for KIE, see that we are doing OK and that I am still gainfully employed. I have bought shares (sometimes at a price that turned out not to be so good) have held them and am in the company ShareSave Scheme - all my choice. You may say I am biased, but it is my money that I am investing and as said in a previous post, I don't have the disposable income as others do on this board.

[bathboy2] 16/9/2021 13:45

The year end, not month end debt is 432m down from last year 436m, that is after they've took in KL money and capital raise receipts, that means the 350m has already disappeared,

[zicopele] 16/9/2021 13:41

Top man wally

[wallywoo] 16/9/2021 12:30

Lol gixxer,

FACTS;


1) Kier's audited p + l shows a £31m bottom line loss (so they have no net profit, but a net loss!!).


2) In their spin they say they have 25p per share earnings. They also mention a 11.6p basic EPS. Make up all sorts would be my take and certainly not the investment world's take on EPS (net profit/loss divided by number of shares).

They will have no p/e ratio because they have negative (loss) earnings.

In deed, the audited balance sheet and profit and loss show no correlation at all to Kier's headline bullet points!!

Please tell me how that is not dishonest???? I call a spade a spade! It's not me who should land in trouble.

[gixxer1] 16/9/2021 12:26

Greetings, not posted for a while but I do visit every day as it does bring a smile to my face reading the posts on this board. Wally - your comment about Kie being and I quote 'one of the most dishonest companies around' is a very bold statement. As you know I have never disrespected you (or anyone on the board) and I do hope your comment doesn't land you in trouble.

[kierculpa] 16/9/2021 12:03

Apologies bathboy, i should have made clear my post was aimed at the grown ups on here with skin in the game.

[bathboy2] 16/9/2021 11:29

How is that solid results, when the only headway made, is by mugging investors, and still losing money,

[kierculpa] 16/9/2021 11:05

Solid results. Market was clearly expecting some fireworks, which wasnt going to happen. Im ok with that, volatility being no friend of kie. But turnaround is not yet complete. Need a run of solid results back to dividend. The share price will take care of itself.

[wallywoo] 16/9/2021 11:01

I have been hearing "the ship has turned around" for nearly 3 years now, Sparty.


Ship lost cash last year and had to be bailed out by another equity issue and asset sales (at less than book value).


There's no evidence that cash burn has stopped. Ship is still sinking IMO!!! The market thinks so too. share price is now falling past support, next stop 100p!!!


Question; how can a company with a audited bottom line loss of £31m say it has EPS of 25p!!! Kier's lying spin is frankly bordering on fraud.

[sparty1] 16/9/2021 10:51

Hardly a bastion of honesty are you wally?
No one was expecting rave reviews or miracles but the ship has turned round and on a firm footing going forward.

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 10:49

You have been 100% wrong in every post you've put on here since your first under your bathboy name (I know it's you wolly).

[bathboy2] 16/9/2021 10:47

I dont know what your sniffing, or is it the night nurse with your cocoa, the results minus the 350m drawn in, would be horrific, no progress, still falling back, within 2 years I reckon, they will be back for more money, lol

[stdyeddy] 16/9/2021 10:11

You're so desperate sicko. You've been wrong for a year. You will continue to be wrong. Getting excited about a momentary tick shows how desperate you are.

Also strange that you see yourself as a 'mummy' but it's a free country. Are you and wolly and bathboy all the same person then, because I've noticed the same gender fluidity in those two as well?