Kier Share Discussion Threads

[claymagnet] 21/3/2021 20:03

Thanks both. I'd be happy to pay more in with good news on KL and the cost saving etc. Wally if its a successful right issue mate you'll need to have fast fingers to make a profit on the short, if it works that way. Have a good evening all.

[418249] 21/3/2021 19:58

Well done StdyEddy,

Someone finally post an article that makes all the sense in the world. There is so much nonsense on this thread about the share price crashing in April etc.
I’ve said this months ago and will continue to do so, Kier will be worth 13/150 this year. I’ve bought the most shares I could afford now 20k at an average of 78.9 I would not sell them for 100 now. Read his article which point to the fact Kier made a mess last time out and they will not make the same mistake twice or all there heads and bonus will go, that is all shareholders need to believe. I know in 24 months I’ll be rich and all the non believers will be regretting not getting on board even now. Take off preparations for this space ship have already begun with take off in early April....no need to strap yourselves in boys as this one won’t be a bumpy ride!

[sparty1] 21/3/2021 18:56

Not going bust Wally. Not anytime soon. Just move on .We all get it wrong sometimes.. My MSLH (Marshalls) building suppliers is down 2% . :(

But syme is well up :)

[stdyeddy] 21/3/2021 18:10

You hope! I've got a hunch you will be disappointed wallzy-pops. The mixed message of sale of asset/cash-injection, a half-way decent set of results BUT an RI, might easily minimise any drop. There might in fact be no drop at all.

You are also failing to recognise that there could be an equity buy-in -- no one knows yet -- but that would blow the price upwards massively instead!

BUT let's indulge your doom-mongering for a moment. Imagine a 3 for 2 RI at 65p with the share price at say, 100p on the news (we seem to heading there), plus the sale of KL for £110m. If the share price dropped 10p straightaway (not very far due to good news mixed with a cash-call), holders taking up the rights would have shares at an average 75p in a company that would be practically net debt free AND the market leader in its sector. The last remaining impediment for Kier removed at a stroke. P/e would immediately head to something more normal as soon as the market hears that most of the institutional holders have agreed to buy the rights -- and that could be on the day. (Davies and Kesterton MUST do the groundwork with the major holders first. I hope AD has learnt this from his past run-ins with the major shareholders.) Though it's a gamble, it might even be worth holding two fifths of your preferred investment level in order to get that discount. Only a little over a quarter of Kier's shares are available on the open market -- Kier has VERY HIGH INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP; OVER 71%!!

Shorts, btw, would be double-whammied -- the share price not dropping far AND where the longs have rights shares in profit (by 25p in this scenario) the shorts are looking at any advantage in the drop more than wiped out by their 25p loss on the other side of the rights issue equation. AND if the market reacts positively instead, with the share price actually going up on the news, shorts will be quickly burned -- a distinct possibility.

The company should be valued at somewhere around a £1bn on current earnings equating to about £2.50 a share post-rights. Since we are also going to see higher revenue and potentially a slight increase in profit margins (look at Costain's five-gate profit assessment before they sign any new contracts -- the whole industry is getting more careful, especially since Carillion and Interserve's failure AND Kier's brush with disaster) in a market where there is more business from a minor infrastructure boom AND consequently more customer demand. (Maybe even a major boom!) A meagre £50m underlying profit for a p/e of 20 and £1bn valuation is much too low -- my guess is that a year from now we're likely to see double that profit and potentially a £2bn company. Kier will, imv, triple-bag initially and 5-bag at the very least in one year.

Even an investor NOT taking up the rights would more than double their money on the scenario above in short order. That's why IoM's etoro pundit considers Kier practically 'risk-free'.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/3/2021 16:53

Personally, I still think the same as the middle of last year:

[claymagnet] 21/3/2021 16:49

Wally it's one thing saying the share price will go down with a RI but are you still saying they're going bust?

[easy45] 21/3/2021 16:39

Carillion went bust because of the Middle east contracts over a billion in payments being withheld, no body can compare Kier to Carillion.

[wallywoo] 21/3/2021 16:13

Market leader means a successful investment, Stdy?


Are you sure?


You don't have to go back long to count that one off. Carillion had a £16b order book when it went bust. It was more profitable than Kier and had a lot more posters on their BB that believed they couldn't go bust. Let history be your friend!!!

[claymagnet] 21/3/2021 15:57

I hated wizard of oz.

[zicopele] 21/3/2021 14:38

I wonder what patient buying means. Perhaps Rachet might elaborate.

Good comments on LSE thread from Steve and Hinkley. Apparently Steve and Hinkley are the same poster and are now referred to as stinkley.

Also, they suggest that I am Hinkley and Wally is Steve but we are the same posters.

Bizarre really. Tge longs get so agitated when reminded of the debts that they genuinely believe only one poster could hold such view.

So wally, steve hinkley and I are the same poster.

[stdyeddy] 21/3/2021 14:25

spartz, did you hear a tiny wallypoo squeaking? I think I might've just heard that little grizzling sound that we've been hearing for the last couple of years, mumbling something about carillion and interserve. He is so slow to catch on!! Kier is over it! Maybe the share price will stun him into silence next week. He should really take a look at the monthly chart. And the six-month chart!

[stdyeddy] 21/3/2021 14:19

Well let's see if 58p holds for Cost, spartz; it might bounce back, but if support fails there it could keep on going. Doesn't seem to be affecting Kier. It must be increasingly apparent to masturpig that out of the two, kier and cost, he seems to have backed the wrong one.

The problem for Cost is that it's not the market leader in either construction or consultancy, both crowded marketplaces. Kier is the market leader in construction, the UK's largest with a very strong regional network in terms of customers and service capability. My guess is that we will now outpace tiny Costain very significantly.

[sparty1] 21/3/2021 12:04

have I missed any pidgy comment on COST's £98million loss? The gap is 31p despite costs funding and kiers debt and alleged fund raising and dilution.
Go figure.

[sparty1] 20/3/2021 12:51

It`s those margin figures that caught my eye. If only for holders!

[itisonlymoney] 19/3/2021 18:27

I just found this kier assessment on etoro. Maybe it's the etoro crowd who are keeping this up. Quite a few mistakes in the assessment below by some bloke called Marcin Jasinski 9 days ago but interesting to see the view outside. Very different to wallywoo's miserable moaning and that other bloke whose name rhymes wit h 'prig'!

Some of the numbers are wrong/out of date. He doesn't seem to know that woodford divested. also doesn't realise that the business has an ordr book of over £7bn. He thinks a £250m contract is good news. He'd probably wet himslef with excitement if he realised there's £7bn+ in business.

🅕🅤🅝🅓7312;🅜ӹ16;🅝🅣;🅐🅛🅢

Kier is one of the most undervalued stocks on eToro and has been very steadily growing amid all the market turmoil. PE of 4.61 as per eToro and Forward PE of 1.95 as per Refinitiv are both extremely low (normal PE is around 20, Amazon is trading at 91).

Perhaps more importantly, Kier has recently won a 250M contract while its market cap is not even reaching 140M.
Its debt is high at 924M and Debt to Capital stands at almost 80%.

Revenue is expected to grow at c.6% a year and the margins are expected to improve from 3.7% to 4.2%. EPS has been dramatically improving, going from negative to positive and showing 132% growth FY1.

Revenue breakdown shows that 47% of Revenue is derived from Construction while 44% from Infrastructure Services and 9% from other.

Woodford has 14% of the Company SO, M&G almost 10%, Aberdeen almost 9%, Blackrock 5.85% and Aviva 5.3%. This is an extremely strong Institutional Ownership. For MJ Copiers Club, Kier is the biggest position with around 6% of the portfolio and currently c.18% profit on it.

3 Analysts that rated the company all gave STRONG BUY rating with 78% Upside potential.

🅒🅞🅝🅒7323;🅤ӹ30;🅘🅞;🅝

Investing in companies such as Kier Group is my favourite investment style. Buying stocks that are so massively undervalued reduces risk to almost 0 in my mind - provided that there are other similar assets from various industries and geographies. Kier price momentum has shown resilience almost $NSDQ100 and $SPX500 going up or down 4% a day recently. $UK100 is generally undervalued IMHO and Kier is one of its gems. Many people like to ask me what I think about $HMSO.L (Hammerson) Have a look at Market Cap and Revenue of both firms.

In short, I am bullish on Kier and the main issue here is to watch the debt. With the contracts the Group is winning, I am not concerned at all and would actually welcome a divesture or capital raise.

[sparty1] 19/3/2021 17:33

"Britain's Covid vaccine drives hits record daily high of 660,000 doses with HALF of adults now jabbed as NHS data shows uptake rates in over-55s are just 60% in parts of London but close to 90% in parts of Worcestershire
As many as 528,260 first doses were dished out on Thursday, and 132,016 second doses were administered
Some 26.2million Britons have now received their first dose of the vaccine, or half the adult population
There are 21 parts of the country have vaccinated less than 70 per cent of their over-55 populations
The national rollout was extended to those aged 55 and above on March 7 and to all over-50s yesterday
London boroughs continues to lag behind the rest of the country in terms of their Covid vaccine uptake"

half of adults now jabbed. Fact.

Now I wonder why London is lagging behind..? lol.. Probably a language barrier.

[sparty1] 19/3/2021 16:23

No seems reasonable to me. There is confidence currently behind the share.A fully operational debt free or debt reduced company might increase in share price This is not however helping me buy back in cheaper..
The De Rampers have let me down as has the Sky news business team. :)

[rachet1] 19/3/2021 16:21

There seems to be very patient buying going on in a narrow range. Small volume too. What would a 2 for 1 rights issue at 60p do to the shareprice? Three quarters of the shares are owned by institutional holders. If Andrew Davies has backing from the instis and the RI is near fully subscribed the shareprice might not move at all from where it is now. Someone has confidence. That's what the shareprice is telling me. Thoughts anyone? No absurd doommongering please.

[sparty1] 19/3/2021 15:44

wally ...no actually
I think you failed to mention it is also very high reward.That's a balanced view.

[sparty1] 19/3/2021 15:42

On the down side from being well up I`m £20 down on Cheltenham races so far. Got off lightly.

[sparty1] 19/3/2021 15:40

early last year I targeted FXPO.. circa £4 now ,,available @ £1 at one point.Kier.. eventually gave me a profit. RYA which doubled from it`s lows and has stayed at highs or near them while the industry imploded around it.
SYME is currently showing me a good profit after a few days.. no complaints from me.

Pidgy..while engaging in some heated argument you have missed out that COST to KIER gap has gone over 30p.. 58.5 to 88.8 currently.. Now I`m not in either but for a company that is supposed to be debt free ...hardly pulling up trees. You backed the wrong horse.

Still watching Marshalls with a view to adding more, currently down a tad. I think anywhere under £7 will prove a fruitful investment.JMO

[sparty1] 19/3/2021 15:32

"French regulators said AstraZeneca jabs could resume but only for over-55s
It marks a 180-degree reversal from France's earlier ban on over-65s getting it
PM Jean Castex, 55, is set to get the jab himself to bolster public confidence in it"

Flocking hilarious.. French farce..