Kier Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 19:23

Rayfenn. Ooooookay ;)

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 19:17

Investing more about timing than anything else.

[ammu12] 27/2/2021 19:12

Itisonlyme,Kier net debt 300m++Costain net cash 100m++ .....Please stick to facts and not fiction....

[rayfenn] 27/2/2021 19:05

Vastly overpriced.

Fair value is 10p says leading broker.

Sell

The debt here is huge.

Massive rescue rights issue needed.

If that liar and conman Sparty1 ramps a share it is time to get the hell out. A clueless demented cornish pensioner.

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 19:00

These boards are littered with those who bought too high and sold at a loss. That's investing, but some can't move on, and have to keep posting bile to justify their actions.
Man up.

[belroe] 27/2/2021 18:56

zicopele, by denying it, you make it true. stdyeddy has successfully confronted the troll team on here for two years. Give credit where it's due. I agree with itsonlymoney. Maybe you should get some credit too. I see you post on lse as Hinckley. Well done for spreading your poison there and elsewhere. I think eddy might be right about you being a bitter former kier middle manager, kicked out for bad behavior perhaps.

claymagnet - yeah, he used a fancy word. Shame he couldn't spell it though. Sycophant should have only have one h.[Go back and edit Zico?]

Seems to be lots of costain fans here, punting for business for their investment. I thought costain had a thread of its own. Perhaps they want the kier posters to return spam the COST bb.

Interesting weeks ahead for Kier. Nothing in the papers today. Ball is in Kier management's court.

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 18:49

I got into saga at 140p, but then anyone could say that.

[claymagnet] 27/2/2021 18:32

Best poster? Easily Ant Eater. Uses words I understand.

[claymagnet] 27/2/2021 18:30

Zico I liked your post just cos it has a fancie word in no one knows what it means.

[zicopele] 27/2/2021 18:23

One of the beat posters? You are having a laugh surely. He has just come to terms with the fact that Kier has £310m debt ....not £400m cash.

He still does not recognise VAT or trade finance as debt.

Stop being a sychophant...be your own man.

[itisonlymoney] 27/2/2021 18:13

Ammu, thanks for the costain spamming. I'm aware of them as a minnow in crowded pond. I will not be buying, especially as they are trying to change direction into consultancy (even more crowded) and they're too small to withstand another bad contract.

imastu, still complaining about stedyeddy. Give it up. He's easily one of the best posters on KIE and has put the time in.

Eddy, thanks for the big post. Thought provoking and a good read as yours often are.

What has happened to the KIE employees who were posting here? Why so silent? Been sworn to secrecy? Has Davies said which kind of equity raise is happening? Is it equity buy-in by Hands/Goldmans or a rights issue? Any clues?

[ammu12] 27/2/2021 18:03

The only problem with gfrd is the tiny margins.... they have excellent cash position due to sell of profitable business and hence the potential divi however long term is the business sustainable with 1% target margin ?Even kier has better margin and costain amongst the 3 has the best margin with aspiration for 7%...see below from the half year results :Vaughan said construction would make up a smaller percentage of future work "with a future ambition for 45% of our profits to be derived from complex programme delivery (currently c67%) and 55% from our consultancy and digital services (currently c33%)."He added: "The strategy will support improved profitability as we seek to deliver our divisional margin of 6% to 7% over the medium term."

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 17:55

The big gains are in small caps between 100m and 400m who can treble at the drop of a hat.

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 17:53

Costain, in my imaginary and amateur world is 200p in 24 months and 350p in 5 yrs.

[claymagnet] 27/2/2021 17:51

Most people here will already know but its worth highlighting that all the main players were down on Friday. Cost, gfrd are the only others I hold and were down. Companies with cash and speculation of dividend. Sort of, lessens the blow.

[ammu12] 27/2/2021 17:50

What's your target for costain Ham 12-24 months...

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 17:50

And RCH at 55p...

hamhamham1 - 11 Sep 2020 - 11:16:15 - 16260 of 18323 ITV - 2014 - The New Programme Makers - ITV
Spr my best are LAM and DLAR, trebled.
But then I have some which are down, so hey, just waiting for some touch papers to be lit, hopefully.

hamhamham1 - 11 Sep 2020 - 11:02:38 - 16257 of 18323 ITV - 2014 - The New Programme Makers - ITV
I have a ding dong battle between ITV and RCH, they neck and neck at 65p vs 65.5p.

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 17:22

I also bought DLAR at 45p, but hey, any one can say anything here.

[ammu12] 27/2/2021 16:28

The year-end order book stands at GBP4.2 billion (31 December 2019: GBP4.2 billion), with c GBP1,020 million secured for 2021 (c GBP940 million secured for 2020 at end of FY19). The Group has a strong year-end net cash position of GBP102.5 million, ahead of expectations, (31 December 2019: GBP64.9 million) comprising GBP89.5 million of cash, GBP61.0 million share of cash in joint operations and GBP48.0 million of drawn debt. The average month-end net cash balance for the second half was GBP100.8 million (2019 full year: GBP41.2 million).

[ammu12] 27/2/2021 16:27

Buy costain

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/2/2021 16:22

clay - I honestly don't know; there are many scenarios ranging from the DLAR to the SAGA, and any variation in between.

Oddly, leaving aside the bizarre way that stdy continues to use the self-satisfied dog-with-a-bone moniker he thought up for me all on his own (which kind of ignores the self-deprecating nature of the one I gave myself) and also basically says 'no, you are' re the Captain Mainwaring thing - as I've noted before wit and humour do not sit well with him - I could also agree that all of the scenarios he describes are possible. Who knows which one will occur?

I think, as usual, he is being somewhat economical with the truth - average net debt was £436m during the most recent reporting period (the £310m is a window-dressed year end position), and there is the delayed tax of £80m plus the trade finance (£125m) - so the net debt is (was before any additions to it) more like £640m than £310m. Quite different, but what's £330m between friends, eh? Everyone should do their own research.

And to be fair, jbtd, is correct when he says it's easy to commentate without skin. Which is kind of the point, I think - I can be objective. Everyone can make their own mind up whether stdy is and whether he is giving the full picture. Or not.

I think, as usual with KIE, we need some factual information. Who knows when we will get it?

[stdyeddy] 27/2/2021 15:01

Good to hear from you john. I had intended saying to masturpig that you were a retired floor trader who goes where the money is and won't give a flying fk on the thoughts of idle commentators. I didn't expect to hear from you again unless you re-entered; am pleasantly surprised. I also noted the price action on your sale and thought the same thing. Someone/some people are grabbing all we can give.

masturpig, you spend half your mssg banging on about the other posters here and (in your very Capt Mainwaring way, lecturing them on how to behave) trying to tell them not to be nasty to you while you give your very limited insight. This is a free chatboard. Get used to being called an ar$ehole if you behave like one.

The regular posters here have made the more interesting points.
a) Davies told the market twice he was considering an 'equity raise'. Since the last rights issue all but failed, even at a much higher price, he would have to be really stupid to be talking down the shareprice by mooting an RI. I see two possibilities. 1. He IS really stupid. It's possible. Davies has been consistently ham-fisted in his communications to the investment community. OR 2. He wasn't talking about an RI. He was talking about an 'equity raise' from outside investors (a buy-in). Since the story is in the mainstream news, now would be the time for more detail.

b) As a hedge-fund proprietor, Guy Hands is adroit in manipulating the investment community where Davies is hopeless. Davies doesn't even talk to the press post-results presentations. As I and others have pointed out here, it's in the buy-in group's interests to stop the shareprice from rising. Hence the leak to Sky News.

c) How will Davies respond? If he stays true to form, we will hear nothing from him on Monday morning and the shareprice could tank. If it's an RI, it might even be called off because it has no prospect of success. If it's an equity buy-in, it will go ahead at advantageous terms for the buyers. They get a massive slice of a major UK business underpinned by government customers and the shareholders will have been ripped off by a canny investment 'consortium'. Or, just possibly, the insiders continue to pick up shares and the share price stays higher. As ever, insiders and the market will decide, but if I don't hear from Davies, I will be looking fwd to seeing the major shareholders boot him out when the donkey work is over. Davies wasn't their pick anyway; he was Neil Woodford's man allegedly. If on the other hand, Davies can fight fire with fire, I will be a fan. He and Kesterton should already have a PR plan to handle news leaks on this project; that will demonstrate his graduation to the role of a good CEO for a PUBLIC company.

d) Value of the business. Someone said £1bn. I make that right. Current £3.5bn turnover and 2% net profit (before they pay it out in exceptionals -- and Davies is suggesting in the last RNS that that is over now, but it remains to be seen). Last yr Davies said increased competition for framework contracts might push that margin down, but then kier managed a 2.5% profit in the next results. Also £3.5bn turnover was achieved in a Covid (recession) year. So net profit is nominally £70m, but with a BUILD BUILD BUILD Johnson administration, that is likely to be £4bn-upwards. Maybe very much upwards. I reckon net profits are conservatively in the range £80m to £100m. A reasonable p/e for the sector might be 12. Enterprise value currently is £310m debt plus £150m market cap. Call it £450m. IF the equity buy-in OR rights issue (whichever it turns out to be) raises one for one (ie perhaps doubling the shares in issue) or £130m plus £115m from Kier Living sale, plus perhaps £35 half-year profit, the business could have practically no net debt and a nominal diluted shareprice of what? 40p? For maybe one minute. Because the debt is gone, the revenue and profit stays. That shareprice has to go to £2 very quickly (a p/e of only 8 on £70m profits) and MUCH higher on higher revenue and earnings.

e) But is debt gone? Not entirely. Kier will still need to use debt as it does now, for short-term project funding and I doubt that earnings will keep pace with working capital demand because there is a logjam (post-covid) of construction projects waiting to be awarded, and I would like to see the UK's largest construction firm bag £5bn a year in contracts. So we will still see some debt on the balance sheet, but it will be smaller and accrued profits will make it even smaller until eventually, the money being paid in interest today will become dividend pay-outs to shareholders.

[johnbuythedips] 27/2/2021 14:04

From the organ grinder to the monkey. Easy to commentate without skin. You are nauseating - the kind of person I would hate to get stuck with at a party.
I can take one leaked report from Sky News with no comment from the board but two? Not for me. My risk got riskier on Friday and the reward got less rewarding IMO however - I have been trading this share for 2 years in some decent clips and they took my first 100,000 sale like it was a low tick - somebody is buying which leads me to think the leak could be to shake the likes of me out before they make a play. If so - well done, they have succeeded and my fellow longs will be rewarded. I hope that they are. My only concern is Kier are looking to clear all of the debt and they appear to have no regard for keeping their shareholders informed, it is all very wish washy in the updates from Davies - Enough is enough when Sky News are opening their mouth more than Kier. A bit like you on here.
I got it wrong believing Davies would sell KL first before coming to the market. My plan was to sell after the sale of KL and before a possible rights issue. Then come back to the party.
For me anything could happen but I am out and certainly will not be giving a running commentary on a stock I no longer have a position in.
For anyone who cares we had the property values in Canterbury this morning at £275,00 more than what we paid for it. Not bad for £80 grands worth of work. Funny how I was mocked for buying more property as the pandemic started.
Take care all - I really hope anybody who is still in here gets the rewards they deserve for holding their nerve. Friday was just one step too far for me. I am neutral now.

[claymagnet] 27/2/2021 13:59

Imatsu, as you are a deep thinker and chartist, if kie does follow saga, how far do you think we will plunge? Further than the summer lows?Any other comments welcome