Kier Share Discussion Threads

[stdyeddy] 26/2/2021 13:40

Interesting story on sky news. I agree with davwal; it seems to be too strong on detail to be wrong.

I have a number of calls out to Kier (their phones are running red hot and no one who knows anything is answering) for investor relations, the company secretary, PR and others. If I hear anything, I will let you know. Please do the same.

The equity raise doesn't necessarily need to be a rights issue (though of course it could be); Terra Firma and Goldmans could just buy in. It will dilute our holdings, but as we've seen from other cash raises and even recent rights issues (eg my favourite, De La Rue, where the share price trebled anyway) the share price might actually go up because at the moment, Kier is priced to go bust. Take that risk away and the company could trade on a p/e of what? 15 perhaps?

I'm going to sit tight for the moment. I've also urged Kier to communicate through the normally accepted channels. Sky seem to have broken a genuine exclusive story and I hope that it is an embarrassment to Davies -- if he has learnt anything from his other shambolic PR events, he should get ahead of the story with full details in an RNS today. I look fwd to seeing how he handles it.

GLA.

[rayfenn] 26/2/2021 13:39

Vastly overpriced.

Fair value is 10p says leading broker.

Sell

The debt here is huge.

Massive rescue rights issue needed.

[hamhamham1] 26/2/2021 13:13

Huge support at 84p level, it spent best part of 2 months at this level back last April/May time.

[davwal] 26/2/2021 13:11

Hardly a surprise given the company announced their thinking ages ago. Don’t think it so terrible and getting things settled will be positive.

[sparty1] 26/2/2021 13:01

The irony is Wally and Zero point have been rubbishing the SKY news stories for months ..now all of a sudden they seek to use the story!
Could not make it up. lol.

[sparty1] 26/2/2021 12:59

"Terra Firma is understood to be planning to co-invest in the deal alongside funds managed by Goldman Sachs and Partners Group, a Swiss-based investment firm."

Could be just what the company needs ...debt down to acceptable level and moving onwards with loads of contracts.

[zicopele] 26/2/2021 12:58

I disagree with you imastu. The prospects for EPS have improved and improved dramatically.

Loss per share will reduce by a factor of up to ten. Kier is on a roll.

[sparty1] 26/2/2021 12:57

zero ,where did you get 25P from? Usual scare story from you. Still out of work? Not surprised.
If you read the article it said results in April along with possible fund raise and sale of kier. Could just be Hands is involved in both. And pidgy is right .Might not necessarily mean a big drop in share price
This story could be the reason for the recent rise as well as expected Budget spending.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/2/2021 12:53

Some of us didn't trust them all along - this is nothing new.

It's how they operate - see previous trading statements, AGM statements, carefully worded results commentary etc

Probably why they are getting a kicking - well that and the prospects for future EPS.

Think I'll let the dust settle for now.

[claymagnet] 26/2/2021 12:48

Cheers John all the best

[johnbuythedips] 26/2/2021 12:48

That’s me done boys. You’ll just see about 147000 go through. Made a small profit. Hardly worth the effort.
I’m out because this is the final straw for me. Instead of leaking articles to the press they should engage with the shareholders.
I no longer trust the board.
That aside I wish all of you longs the very very best and for your sake I’m wrong.
John

[zicopele] 26/2/2021 12:32

They have said something...which nobody seems to have picked up.

They will be very late with issue of report. April is just not cricket.

What more do you want? You have Guy Hands.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding.

Upton Sinclair...

[davwal] 26/2/2021 12:27

I guess Kier might be obliged to say something now.

[zicopele] 26/2/2021 12:03

When a man's income or livelihood depends on one story, he will refuse to accept any alternative story regardless of its logic

Johnny professes to have invested £100k in Kier. He has a dog in this fight.

If rights issue at 25p that will mean more than a billion shares in issue post equity raise.

Now here is the question. Does Kiers market cap increase to circa £1bn from £150m simply by raising £150m in equity and the sale of KL?

It should do if the current price is maintained.

I doubt it.

No, my short is on solid ground. Kier shareholders will be diluted out of existence but....Kier still stays in business so no disruption for the industry.

It is a win win for me. Loads more new money to spend in the industry, probably wasted on vanity projects which will keep guys like me busy and everyone keeps his job.

[johnbuythedips] 26/2/2021 11:52

Masturpig. Get lost. Eating fish on a Tuesday instead of a Friday is too high risk for you. Bore off you very unlikeable chap.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/2/2021 11:43

Fair point - should have said 'at least twice'. A lot depends on the issue price - I've seen rights issues issued at a premium (ASOS) and others issued close to current price (TW.) and obviously most at significant discounts. All depends on existing (and maybe new) institutional shareholder appetite.

I then come back to the sectoral view - guaranteed income for several years, pandemic proof (ish), but regular contract balls-ups (to continue?) and predatory pricing - and where best to take the risk (if to take the risk at all).

Everyone has a different (but legitimate) view - my view of KIE is it's too high risk for me, certainly until I can see what the true position is and I'd rather invest in a safer company in the sector - but that view can change. And it doesn't have to be either/or as I keep trying to say.

Objectivity, yer see...

[zicopele] 26/2/2021 11:35

The rights issue will be at a significant discount to the current price so more than twice the shares in issue

EPS will fall by more than half but...as Kier has lost money for years it is the loss per share that falls

Share may increase because the loss per share is falling. Haha

At say 25p per share issue price, expect 900m shares to be issued.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/2/2021 11:25

Thanks sparty - it is just an opinion, although based on facts; always a good idea. People tend to focus solely on a share price - when the true valuation of the business is both equity and debt.

More interesting, if true, is that Sky news story. You have to assume it is true, as it has been planted by KIE themselves. Combining the sale of Kier Living, an equity raise, and (possibly - although it may follow later) a refinancing of their debt, it would make a dent in the debt levels, albeit at the expense of the existing equity holders.

That doesn't necessarily mean a reduction in share price - if the perception is that things are (broadly) fixed, then the share price could do better, despite the rights issue being undertaken (almost certainly) at a discount to the current price. That is a big 'if' though and it won't be clear what the reaction is (which is unlikely to be 'no reaction') until it happens.

You do have to consider the impact on forward earnings per share though - whatever the future profitability is, it will be diluted across twice the number of shares. As it stands, I don't know what the future steady state profitability will be. They might even try to give some guidance on that when they do report. Or they might not...

Interesting times - still thinking about it.

[davwal] 26/2/2021 11:21

The Sky report looks too specific to be far off correct. Looks like a £150m placing and Guy Hands buying KL, with all becoming clear in April. Kier declined to comment too, so it ain’t a load of cobblers.

[zicopele] 26/2/2021 11:15

Ah yes....sky news again. Results must be out next week.

£150m will pay the outstanding tax, overdue pension and maybe £40m for working capital.

Kier needs a lot more than that.

Do they mention Guy Hands in the article?

[sparty1] 26/2/2021 11:07

davwal, yes holding up well!There was a time....
I see less doomomgering on LSE. The naysayers have largely shut up. No choice really.
Right Sun is out and so am I .
GL all

[tonysss13] 26/2/2021 11:05

Kier Group, the listed construction company, is putting the finishing touches to a comprehensive plan to fix its balance sheet with a major share sale and the disposal of one of its biggest divisions.

Sky News has learnt that Kier is in detailed talks about an equity-raising that could generate close to its existing market capitalisation of £150m.


hxxps://news.sky.com/story/construction-group-kier-closes-in-on-equity-raise-and-housebuilding-sale-12229454

[sparty1] 26/2/2021 11:03

whole sector taking a step back this morning.. Hopefully normal service will be resumed with 3 working day to Budget.