Kier Share Discussion Threads

[claymagnet] 27/2/2021 13:57

Imatsu, Jbtd is on the bench now. It's been very hectic the last few days and they has been a lot of tension and frustration between the two sides. I think we need to all move on as we all evolve into the next phase of this share. Big J may want to jump back in after the dust settles if he feels the time is right, sniping shots are not helpful. Though I did laugh at the fish on a Tuesday comment which wasn't helpful.A lot of people bring good insight to this board and I am sure it helps more experienced chaps as well as lesser experienced ones such as myself.Resume play.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/2/2021 12:47

Have given some thought to this, not least with some of the input from some of the more thoughtful posters here (which is the point of a thread, rather than being an echo chamber of a cult purely for ramping regardless of reality).

My guess is that how this plays out will be more akin to SAGA than DLAR. Probably somewhere between the 2 (DLAR soared 400% for existing holders, SAGA plunged - at the bottom - to a fraction of its previous share price through dilution.)

Not going to bang on again about the sector and which company within the sector, but as a non-holder I think (note, I don't know, I'm just expressing an opinion based on what we know and experience) the opportunity will be after the funding is addressed (it won't be solved, debt will remain high - but it will be more manageable.)

It won't be on the SAGA level of dilution, but it will be significant, and the current shareholders will need to subscribe for all they are offered (maybe 2-3 times the current number of shares) to avoid dilution.

But from there, whatever the end position is, the parallels with SAGA will be very attractive. SAGA, from the bottom, has trebled. Not much good for pre-existing SAGA shareholders, who are still way down on their original investment, even after it has trebled, but for people getting in at or near the bottom, there could be serious money to be made, if you're brave enough.

Speaking of brave - there was some irony yesterday in jbtd calling me a coward and then selling the lot. There is nothing brave about heroically ignoring the evidence and sticking to the same path and indeed compounding it by continually doubling-down again and again. It's possibly a good strategy on the right share - cash rich, low risk, but not on one with high debt where the risk of dilution is severe.

But even then, why sell the lot if you have a belief in it (as he did the day before), and you have some purchases in profit and some in loss - what has changed? Just sell some from the buys lower down and reduce your exposure - you can then benefit if it goes up or buy them back if it goes down, or even buy into another share in the sector. All good options if the position was correct the day before - but maybe, just maybe, despite the snarling at anyone suggesting otherwise, it wasn't?

Too much binary thinking by too many people.

[418249] 27/2/2021 10:30

Thanks for your response, I’ve got 50 thousand shares on leverage at 77.80 so I’m quite interested in this one. The positives are Keir are a major player in a multitude of construction sectors.
My opinion is to hold as the reward far out ways the risk. (Any opinion will be interested to hear)
Let’s take the information we have.....the wobble that happened on Friday and the share price absorb it and bounce back or held strong at 84/85 however you want to package it.
At low 80 there was strong resistance, I can tell you now once the deal is finalised and equity raise in April the share price will rocket. Just hold on till then, there might be a bumpy ride for the next 8/10 weeks but the we will all be have a big fat Turkey for Christmas Day!
But would be good to hear any angles I might have missed as could leave now with a profit and stick it all into Apple or Procter and Gamble for a much safer journey!

[claymagnet] 27/2/2021 10:10

Could this mean selling KL for 100m and a consortium buying a 50m stake and no RI taking place? Zico u normally like your long complicated words.

[ammu12] 27/2/2021 09:53

I told everyone to buy costain and it's safer with no debt with monthly net cash position of 100m++

[ammu12] 27/2/2021 09:52

Kier Group, the listed construction company, is putting the finishing touches to a comprehensive plan to fix its balance sheet with a major share sale and the disposal of one of its biggest divisions.Sky News has learnt that Kier is in detailed talks about an equity-raising that could generate close to its existing market capitalisation of £150m.Sources said the discussions were not yet finalised, but that a deal was expected to be announced alongside the group's financial results, which are expected to be published in April.

[gerhart] 27/2/2021 09:49

Back on Jan 18th, Sky said that the company was days away from entering *exclusive* talks with one party. I think that they would have had to announce on that if they did go into exclusive talks over sale of part of the company? But nothing was ever said.

Now Sky say, "...the consortium is said to have a period of exclusivity within which to finalise a deal".

I am not sure that Sky's info is accurate.

You'd have thought - if a fund rasing were going to happen it would be in company's interest to keep the the share price high. While those looking for a slice would be looking to undermine/spook the share price

If the company don't speak before April, then expect shorters to be most vocal here.

As always, time will tell. All the best to all holders.

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 09:04

With such a strong rise through the week that news at Friday lunch was someone trying to keep the share price down.
Time will tell.

If there is a raise I think the price will be at 50p.
(Approx 300m shares)
They will let you buy 2 for every 1 share you own.
Then with nearly 500m shares in issue, I expect (and hope) the share price to get to 200p over next couple of years, bringing the market cap back to £1bn.

With those day packet figures, if I had an average currently of 500p, I would be in profit when/if it makes it back to 200p post issue.
Obviously, the lower my current average, the more upside potential, in my world anyway ;)

The sale of KL will take the pressure off cash flow wise, so not a deep, deep disccount offer IMO.
Let's see.

[claymagnet] 27/2/2021 08:49

Excellent question. If they released the info to sky they wouldn't have been running around like head less chickens. Still no RNS. Weekend will be a long time for holders to think about what to do with their brass. I would imagine, and I have little experience in these matters, that kier would want the share price as high as possible for a potential RI. So why not release the sale of KL for 150m which would of in my opinion sent us over a pound even more so with all the momentum behind us. Then next week delay the accounts on account of covid blah blah blah. No one bats an eye lid. Could it be Mr Hands' office leaking the info to some how slow the stock price rise to keep his bargaining position strong? I'm holding because I'm only in for a few thousand quid and knew this was always risk reward. If I was in for more, I think I'd be out. This whole fiasco has resulted in two of the boys pulling out, with how many more behind the scenes. I'm thinking if no news, people will be selling Monday morning. Just my thoughts and interested to see other people's thoughts and happy to be corrected/educated. Davies needs to take the bull by its horns. GLA

[hamhamham1] 27/2/2021 08:33

The market cap is down at these levels because of the lowered/lack of profits and it's debt relative to the market cap, they are reducing costs and tackling the debt, once sorted the market cap will be up to £1bn again IMO.
Everyone has a view, but all we can do is wait and see. No-one persons view is more valid or more likely to come to fruition than another's here.

[zicopele] 27/2/2021 08:20

Kier needed to tell the market that they would be late with results.

The reason they say is capital raising and sale of KL...maybe.

I bet the going concern issue must loom very large. Can you imagine what the professional fees will be this year.

Sale if KL and equity raise is a basis for going concern.

[418249] 27/2/2021 08:15

The question I would like an opinion from someone is in relation to the timing of the statement by Sky. Presuming it was feed to by Kier, if Kier had not sent this info to Sky yesterday the share could be trading now over 100. Why did they pick the moment the share seemed to be going North to release information and would Kier gain anything from keeping share price low when raising equity through new shares?

[itisonlymoney] 26/2/2021 23:07

You claim to be short, so that's what you'd like. The reality will be very different. No hedgefunds are shorting. The company has already notified the market on debt for H1. It's the same as last year. Your story doesn't add up. Volume has been building this week. News of the deal has already leaked and insiders are buying, not selling.

[zicopele] 26/2/2021 19:09

Kier current shareholders will be wiped out by clean equity.

It is that simple. Here is the other thing. The directors are answerable only to the banks now. Shareholders are secondary.

The accounts will be issued very late and the latest Sky nonsense gives them some more time and cover to try to get a deal done.

Accounts are being issued late. Expect very bad news....certainly on debt which will ...just be there unchanged at best even after all the sales and cost cutting.

The shares have value but only as an option to maybe buy deeply discounted new equity...so yes 10p is about right.

That clean equity will more than likely be worthless in a year or two as Kier gets another rights issue over the line to cover the last tranche of the debt pile.

All of this is good for our industry which needs a constant supply of new capital to fund the huge losses which occur from time to time.

And..my friends in Kier keep their jobs too. None of them are concerned about the future but subbies are twitchy.

What is not to like?

[rayfenn] 26/2/2021 18:38

Vastly overpriced.

Fair value is 10p says leading broker.

Sell

The debt here is huge.

Massive rescue rights issue needed.

If that liar and conman Sparty1 ramps a share it is time to get the hell out. A clueless demented cornish pensioner.

[sparty1] 26/2/2021 16:10

see yah later john. I do agree and my small portion will not trouble the share price .! Like you a profit is a profit. Close monitoring is now required but less posting.
Will be trading BP up and down..but not seeing anything out there currently to excite.
Airlines have gone too high for the actual position they are in and my favourite RYA business model cannot be traded anymore within UK.

BP up a bit already from lows! happy days.

[truthandnumbers] 26/2/2021 16:00

weirdo. Sparty1 has been here forever. You've suddenly appeared today, claiming to be an expert, lying and swearing.

[rayfenn] 26/2/2021 15:53

Vastly overpriced.

Fair value is 10p says leading broker.

Sell

The debt here is huge.

Massive rescue rights issue needed.

If that liar and conman Sparty1 ramps a share it is time to get the hell out. A clueless demented cornish pensioner.

[stdyeddy] 26/2/2021 15:50

sicko, there is no way that you would have a short that you wouldn't have cashed in below 50p. And you've been here continuously for two years trolling; I think it's just personal with you.

johnbtd made a safe decision and I don't blame him. He's sat underwater for long enough and I don't think he ever intended his third kier trade to take this long.

Davies is pathologically opposed to talking to the press nowadays; I reckon the story is more likely to have come from Hands's team.

However, I have some third hand news which is not worth much, and some current info; current info is that the H1 numbers will be out on 21st April and the third hand news is that the delay is due partly to the KL sale (unconfirmed, obviously).