Kier Share Discussion Threads

[bathboy2] 06/2/2024 04:15

So by refinancing debt and having to repay it , your saying by calling it a bond , it isn't debt, LOL , best you do some homework

[bathboy2] 05/2/2024 18:17

Crikey , is this of the 550mn packaged debt , that some conveniently forget about , because it doesn't fit their rhetoric, suddenly coming to the front , why would they want to be 6% or more, even considerably more than they have paying , should be able to get at around 4% if truly turned around, and a low risk??! , shouldn't be paying a dividend until all debt paid off IMO

[stdyeddy] 05/2/2024 17:08

New bond issue announced today to replace expiring debt. The interest rate will be a reflection on risk perception from the market for Kier. I hope they can achieve something around 6%. That might be wishful thinking, but let's see.

[stdyeddy] 05/2/2024 17:05

So pleasant to be in a troll-free zone for all this time. Doubtless they are muttering to themselves under a dank stone and cursing the buoyant shareprice here. Still a long way to go though. My guess is that there will be sustained run up to the FTSE250 re-shuffle, perhaps starting towards the middle or later part of this month. Then the audited H1 results and dividend announcement will come in March and that should provide a further lift.

[stdyeddy] 26/1/2024 16:30

A £4m buy, judging by the trade price, seems to have gone through at 15.53 today. Strong interest in Kier from a big buyer.

[stdyeddy] 22/1/2024 20:21

Excellent point -- Kier is positioned today for an automatic entry to the FTSE250 and will be immediately bought by the index-tracker funds. Next revision is March.

Here's the current list. Today's market cap at 129p is £554m and puts it right under Currys, ranked 225th in the FTSE 250. These prices can be a few days out of date but still give a very rough picture on the rankings. My guess is that by the time we get to March, Kier will be at 130p at the very least, and more likely much better.

It's been a few years since Kier was on the indexes -- I'm looking fwd to the shares rejoining and gaining new visibility.

[rolo7] 22/1/2024 19:11

Now when a fste 250 company delists due to it being taken over but at this level will go into f250 in march

[takeapunt1] 22/1/2024 16:58

At what level would Kier re-join the FTSE 250?

[itisonlymoney] 22/1/2024 16:12

Continuing rise. rerating is in progress. good to see it.

[nfs] 20/1/2024 13:33

But that's on statutory earnings not adjusted I'm sure

[nfs] 20/1/2024 13:24

I watched the year end results webcastDividends will be 3* covered, so 33%

[stdyeddy] 19/1/2024 16:11

It looks as though the market here is pausing for breath. Galliford and Costain have both posted similarly positive updates recently while retailers are all struggling. I suspect (and hope) that the market will begin to re-evaluate construction -- the facts here will ultimately overcome scepticism. Kier is generating a lot of cash and pretty soon it's going to present undeniably great value.

In the last rights issue prospectus, Davies promised investors that Kier would pay out one third of profits as dividends (or was it 30%?). The business seems to be reliably producing a 3.5% margin or better (judging by the cash generation -- the numbers in March will hopefully confirm) and turnover looks like it will be around £4bn or better. Conversion to cash is expected to be 90% now that 'adjustments' for 'restructuring' are allegedly over, so my back-of-a-fag-packet calculation is that profits could be around £125m and cash at £110m.

If -- and I think this is a moderate-sized 'if' -- but if Davies and Kesterton leap straight into this pay-out program with the half-year divi at say one third of the total, the March announcement could offer £12m for the first half (2.6p?) and maybe £24m for the full-year, making £36m in total. That would be a 6.5% return on today's shareprice. That is significantly better than current interest rates for money in the bank and the share is in a well-established uptrend -- hence my expectation that the share price is going to go a lot higher from here.

[stdyeddy] 19/1/2024 15:48

Indeed wolly has vanished. He was posting here as his idiot self and 'bathboy' but has slunk away to focus on SFOR apparently, where he is seeking attention from unhappy shareholders AFTER the shares have fallen 95% (same as he did here) pretending that he knows best. His ability to be consistently wrong makes me think about taking a look at SFOR, but since it's a marketing business and that entire industry is built on bullsh1t, I'm waiting for a while and won't be sorry if I miss its recovery.

[nomdeplume] 19/1/2024 12:05

Steady, rumours of my demise have been greatly exaggerated!I just got fed up arguing with that wally who currently seems to have vanished,

[stdyeddy] 19/1/2024 08:11

nom!!! You are still alive!

Yes, it has been a long wait. But that wasn't all Kier's fault. In 2019 you said it would take two years, and you would've been right if we hadn't had a major European war and a global pandemic.

Assuming we have no more cataclysms, I think the trajectory is determinedly upward now. Kier is on rails. Literally, since Buckingham's demise. Share price should double from here fairly quickly this year once the interim and full year dividends are announced, so by September at least. Three pounds at some point.

[nomdeplume] 19/1/2024 07:50

Well, you know what they say, everything comes to he who waits. And some of us have waited a bloody long time, haven't we Steady.

[itisonlymoney] 18/1/2024 14:42

still massively cheap. at 122 this is still on a fwd p/e of about 5. the business is making £100m cash annually. it generated £130m in cash last yr. it should be a on a p/e of around 15. about three times the current shareprice.

[stdyeddy] 18/1/2024 14:32

12-month high break-out. This was 130p a couple of years back with much poorer prospects; smaller order book, much higher debt, no sign of dividend. I think we might be a on four or five-day rush to something significantly higher; maybe 150-160p.

[fenboy2] 18/1/2024 10:04

Thanks nfp

[nfs] 18/1/2024 10:01

Stockopedia think 4.52p full year

[fenboy2] 18/1/2024 09:52

Does anyone have any views on what the dividend level could be. I have been looking back but cannot see any guide figures published.

[stdyeddy] 18/1/2024 08:19

Construction Enquirer's reporting on the update:

Kier slashes net debt by £100m to £140m


Kier has finally turned a corner on its debt burden after a strong period of work winning and cash management.

In a first half trading statement this morning Kier said it has slashed average month-end net debt by around £100m to £140m. This is the lowest level in over five years.

Kier’s order book at the end of 2023 was also 6% up at £10.7bn on the year-end position in June 2023.

It now has secured 92% of forecast revenue for this financial year, excluding long-term framework positions from the order book.