Kier Share Discussion Threads

[bathboy2] 08/12/2023 17:29

What's behind the drop today ??

[stdyeddy] 30/11/2023 08:31

The share price is on the move again after pausing for breath (for a fortnight). A monthly break-out is in progress this morning.

[propdeveloper] 24/11/2023 16:42

Good Post.

Not sure 120M. It's 3.5% return they are projecting, so that's 3.45Bn turnover... maybe.

Although let's take your 120M profit, dividend return is 1/3 according to their trading update with a 1/3 of that at interim and 2/3 at finals. I calculate on 445M shares to be 9p, or 3p and 6p over the year, which is an 8.5% dividend.

Hope that's the case anyway. I suspect this will be £1.50 fairly quickly if that's the case.

Good Luck all longs

[stdyeddy] 24/11/2023 16:05

Good post.

[stutes] 24/11/2023 10:53

You're entitled to your opinion. My opinion of you remains the same.

[dogwithabone] 24/11/2023 08:55

Kier seems to be on the verge of a monthly breakout upwards. Forecast earnings of £120m put this on a forward price/earnings ratio of only 4 which is half the sector average. Projected dividend of £10m at interim and £20m for the final would give this a 6% dividend return. These are forecasts but results over the last 18 months seem to support management's expectations. Construction hasn't been in favour recently but with inflation halving and govt tax revenues at record levels, I think Kier's £10bn pipeline of agreed work is pretty secure. I'm up so far since September but this still feels like the beginning of a long rise to £2. GLA.

[itisonlymoney] 23/11/2023 14:15

you seem desperate. have you learnt to read an annual report yet? do you know what a revolving credit facility is yet?

[stutes] 23/11/2023 14:05

I hope your not embarrassed by your tosh?

[itisonlymoney] 22/11/2023 14:46

So the client wants to negotiate. Not too surprising. they will pay Kier's revised costs. maybe the project will change. theyve gone too far to cancel it altogether.

have you learnt how to read an annual report yet?

[stutes] 22/11/2023 14:31

For those who read rather than write tosh.

[stdyeddy] 22/11/2023 08:41

Jeremy Hunt has possibly just fired the starting gun on a big 'santa claus' rally -- a business friendly Autumn Statement plus tax cuts, apparently.

[itisonlymoney] 21/11/2023 21:38

untrue. generating circa £110m in cash they can afford to pay out £30m a year. davies just bought buckingam's rail business and 14 contracts for £9m and negotiated an increase on the price for just one of those contracts by £15m. more than what he paid for the whole rail division and its equipment, stock and people. davies and kesterton know what they're doing. kesterton was asked at least two years ago about reinstating dividends. they haven't rushed it. debt looks good. profits look good. market share looks great. top UK regional business.

[bathboy2] 21/11/2023 18:01

Good post , i believe it is still too early to get excited, there is still a lot of packaged debt , lurking in the background, i believe, they have been forced into reinstating a dividend , by costains doing so, i think , they could regret, long time

[battyliveson] 21/11/2023 15:57

Appears to be lots of discussion on ability to pay dividend in 2024. Although the group balance sheet has negative retained earnings, my understanding from doing accountancy exams back in 1990 was that dividends are paid out of the Company balance sheet (group accounts are not a legal entity, rather an accounting presentational construct). page 236 of 2023 accounts shows company balance sheet with positive retained earnings and even if the total value of investments was written off, a reorganisation of share premium and merger reserve would facilitate dividend, assuming there was enough cashflow to make it a prudent choice versus debt management.

I have recently invested in Kier and see them as a recovery play, but as Stutes points out, not without risk given debt levels, and low margin nature of contracts. I am taking management at face value on their pricing discipline, and believe current share price reflects a good balance of risk and reward. Not betting the farm on it.

Good luck to holders.

B

[itisonlymoney] 20/11/2023 18:07

there was another troll on here who did the same kind of dishonest posting. always telling ppl to look it up. always lying. what is with trolls and social media? you were posting here every day for weeks and everyone was just ignoring you. its your posts that show you up. seriously. most investors know what an RCF is.

[itisonlymoney] 20/11/2023 18:04

you just cant bring yrself to admit it. just a troll looking for attention. i gave you the facts. you didnt understand what a revolving credit facility is. admit that you got it wrong.

[itisonlymoney] 20/11/2023 17:12

what's yr motivation. whyre you here posting nonsense? the fact that you answering me so quick makes me think you're a lonely weirdo. I'm gonna have to end this chat since youre not being honest.

[stutes] 20/11/2023 17:10

You just don't read to end of the sentences. Work back from net debt and add cash (subbies and supply chsin) for bank facility.
Why do you write tosh rather than something of credit?

[itisonlymoney] 20/11/2023 17:06

are you really that thick?

[itisonlymoney] 20/11/2023 17:06

knowing why someone is here is the key to understanding why that person tells lies on here, in your case. so i reckon if you don't know what a credit facility is, you definitely wouldn't have the confidence to short. so whyre you here posting bullsh1t?

[itisonlymoney] 20/11/2023 17:02

yeah, you idiot, that's the facilities if it needs to use, not what its actually drawn down you numpty.

[stutes] 20/11/2023 16:45

Treasury facilities
Bank finance
The Group has committed debt facilities of £569.4m with
a further £18.0m of uncommitted overdrafts.
The facilities comprise £495.0m Revolving Credit Facility
(‘RCF’), £74.4m US Private Placement (‘USPP’) Notes
as well as £18.0m of overdrafts.
During the year, the Group repaid £35.6m of USPP Notes
and the remaining £8.2m of Schuldschein Note debt. It also
reduced the RCF facility by £40.0m. We expect to reduce
a further £20.0m of the RCF and repay £1.7m of USPP
Notes in the calendar year 2023.
The Group’s revolving credit facility is scheduled to expire
on 31 January 2025. The Board is confident in the Group’s
ability to refinance during FY24.

Excerpt from K's report - facts.

[itisonlymoney] 20/11/2023 16:32

admit you dont have a short here.