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[brucie5] 01/12/2018 17:01

fireplace22
1 Dec '18 - 14:54 - 70253 of 70255
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Whether you like it or not gb the next leader won't be coming from the likes of Boris or JRM (not that he wants the job) it has to be someone acceptable to all sides of the party yet ultimately pro Brexit. It also has to be uncontested to avoid the need of consulting the constituency parties because there ain't time.
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Fireplace, so much may change over the next month as we enter the post vote period, following December 11th. I would bet good money now that we will indeed end up having a second referendum, on the basis that if the UK really does want to jump over the cliff edge with the Bonkers Brexiteers, it should at least be given the chance to suicide itself, rather than have others put it to death on the basis that that's what they actually voted for. first time round.

In such an eventuality, the charge of 'Project fear', along with any pretence from the usual lying sources, will be so much harder to sustain on the side of a bus, that I think this country will come to its collective senses and chuck out the pretenders.

But it's not a question of what I want: just look at the unfolding crisis of authority in Parliament. If no side has the votes to get their business through on Brexit, it must either go to a general election, of revert to a People's Vote.


Unless you have a better idea?

[freddie ferret] 01/12/2018 16:36

Ignore the first couple of minutes about Mitsubishi.

[aleman] 01/12/2018 16:24

More evidence of very sharp deterioration in UK consumer credit quality over the last year in what could be the sunset of the credit cycle - Amigo's (AMGO) loans in late payment increased to a 12.5% share at the end of September, up from 7.7% the same time last year, on a loan book that grew 28% to £743m. Amigo require second parties as loan guarantors. It sounds like many are going to be called upon.

[fireplace22] 01/12/2018 14:54

Whether you like it or not gb the next leader won't be coming from the likes of Boris or JRM (not that he wants the job) it has to be someone acceptable to all sides of the party yet ultimately pro Brexit. It also has to be uncontested to avoid the need of consulting the constituency parties because there ain't time.

[brucie5] 01/12/2018 14:49

Over a billion GPB lost as we no longer have access to the EU Galileo project. I guess we need to get used to such amounts of wastage consequent on the folly of the Bonkers' Brexit. They can join Boris' water cannons - on the elephants' grave yard of The Great Stupidity.

[fireplace22] 01/12/2018 14:31

Penny Mordaunt coming out tentatively backing May for now and reprimanding JRM, is she endeavouring to win the middle ground - a brexiteer that could actually carry the whole party?

[grannyboy] 01/12/2018 13:23

There's rumours that with all these resignations from Mays cabinet, she intends replacing them with Jucker..Verhofstadt..Tusk...she is in negotiations at this very minute to recruit these individuals to her inner circle, with the full backing of Oily Robbins and other cohorts...

[fireplace22] 01/12/2018 11:08

And another one goes! Will May even get to a commons vote?

Sam Gyimah, the universities and science minister, has resigned in protest at the Government’s “naive” Brexit plan, saying that any deal we strike with Brussels will be “EU first”.
Becoming the seventh member of the Government to quit since Theresa May unveiled the draft Withdrawal Agreement, Mr Gyimah says the plan was “not in the British national interest” and that voting for it would “set ourselves up for failure” by surrendering “our voice, our vote and our veto”.

And we're pulling out of Galileo.

On Friday night the Prime Minister said the UK was pulling out of the programme and may now abandon attempts to recoup the £1.2 billion Britain has already spent on the project.

[grannyboy] 01/12/2018 11:05

Ho dear...Looks like another remainer has being let out for care in the community ...

'The Kingpin'....(70243/70244)...

[alphorn] 01/12/2018 09:57

"a much bigger economy than Switzerland"

The strength of a currency is based upon the size if its economy. According to who?

[mount teide] 01/12/2018 00:27

Greetings from Singapore - there is surely no better global example over the last 40 years as to what a policy of free trade and low taxes can achieve for the development and wealth of a Nation and its hardworking people.

Behind the scenes Germany (aided and abetted by the UK Civil Service) has since the referendum moved heaven and earth to prevent the UK leaving its highly protectionist EU personal fiefdom to trade on WTO terms, since this arrangement would hugely favour the UK, and be completely disadvantageous to the handful of EU Nations that trade with the UK in any meaningful way - the EU(mostly Germany) currently runs a huge trade deficit of around £85 billion with the UK.

WTO rates vary depending upon the type of goods, but around 7% is typical. This means that the UK exchequer will receive about 7% of the trade deficit on all goods imported. On a trade deficit of £85 billion this will mean that EU suppliers will pay to the UK exchequer about £6 billion more in tax receipts than UK exporters will pay to the EU.

The crucial question is whether this 7% of additional tax is paid by the EU exporter, or by the UK consumer. That will depend upon market competitiveness and whether the EU seller wishes to hike up prices in the UK (by say 7% to cover the tax he is now paying) or whether due to fear of loss of market share the EU supplier absorbs all or most of the extra tax.

The likelihood is that it will not be passed on to the UK customer. It is difficult to envisage that the likes of Mercedes, Audi, BMW, VW will wish to increase prices of what is already an expensive product, for fear of losing market share to the Japanese, Koreans, Ford and other domestic car manufacturers.

Further there is a strong case for imposing a currency tariff on German goods. Germany has deliberately failed to sort out the Eurozone problems, the Euro problems, the Club Med problems, the Greek bailout etc since this keeps the Euro down, and a low value Euro greatly aids German exports.

In 2015 when the Swiss Franc was decoupled from the Euro, it rose in value by about 30%. This shows that had Germany had the DM it would trade at a value at least 40% above the current value of the Euro (after all Germany is a much bigger economy than Switzerland).

A clean break Brexit UK could get together with the USA which runs a current trade deficit of some $250 billion with Germany, and impose a currency tariff on German goods. Perhaps a 40% tariff, as we know that Trump likes to level the playing field and is not afraid of imposing tariffs, so there would be good prospects for a UK/USA initiative to impose a currency tariff on German goods reflecting the currency manipulation that Germany operates to the cost of the permanent impoverishment of Southern Europe.

That would not only make the UK exchequer further earnings but largely eradicate the massive trade deficit that we run with Germany.

Further, in this scenario the UK avoids having to pay the non-sensical £39 billion 'divorce' bill, and we can then go about repositioning the UK into a free-trade, low tax environment/economy.

There is a lot to be said for a clean break Brexit, and everything against May's disastrous largely German co-ordinated BRINO minus surrender pact.

As Michale Portillo correctly predicted, what Brexit has shown is that there is little democracy in the UK - Brexit was a golden opportunity to re-position the UK for the challenges of the 21st Century (which belongs to the rising economic powers in the East). But its politicians do not have any imagination, still less competency to achieve something in the best interests of the country.

The first thing that should have been addressed after the vote was (i) to assess what challenges the UK faced in the 21st century and where and how best to position the UK to meet those challenges, and (ii) who are our friends who can help us achieve our desired result, what can they do for us, and what can we do for them in return once the UK is out of the ultra low growth, protectionist Federal EU superstate.

[freddie ferret] 30/11/2018 16:23

Quite good. Bit old. Only 13 minutes.

[grannyboy] 30/11/2018 12:54

Hopefully she will be gone after the W.A vote, but knowing her gall she might try and cling on..

[taurusthebear] 30/11/2018 12:50

May may be gone by May. :0)

[grannyboy] 30/11/2018 10:52

Mays out in Argentina, probabably negotiating the Falklands Isles away, and by may paying the argies a few billion on top, and telling us what a great deal she achieved ....

[taurusthebear] 28/11/2018 21:37

The EU should be re-named Hotel California. :0)

[freddie ferret] 28/11/2018 17:44

Mrs May is proving a traitor to Brexit but the saviour of UKIP.

[top tips] 28/11/2018 13:41

TOOPLE (TOOP)

Potential 250 bagger:

[aleman] 28/11/2018 12:02

And the odds of a Fed rise in December have risen to 80%. This is flattening the yield curve a touch since long rates are not rising. The 2-10 spread, often used as a proxy for the yield curve, has eased back to +0.22%, which is lowest for a couple of months. The market is obviously taking note of increased corporate profit warnings, expanding junk bond spreads and rising credit default swap prices while the Fed isn't.

[aleman] 28/11/2018 11:48

Soft US surveys might suggest a strong economy but falling RV sales suggest otherwise - and a US recession within about 12 months.