Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 10/12/2018 09:45

....thanks for the link zho haven't read Mauldin for a while.

[brucie5] 10/12/2018 09:31

PENDRAGON2
10 Dec '18 - 07:51 - 70357 of 70357
0 0 0
fire/alp - I was thinking of May defeat this week followed by Tory Ministers saying go to Brussels on a salvage trip, or resign now. She is on first plane out.

Then a negotiation,then a second vote in Parliament, no election, no referendum 2.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Then an attempt to move the envelope, which they have already said, cannot be moved any further (French just looking for an opportunity to push on fishing rights, Spain pushing on Gibraltar), so TM comes back saying 'I told you so.'

Attempt at a second vote fails.

Attempt to trigger a GE fails.

Crisis of authority.

(Cue: stock market plunges, as hard Brexit looms into view)

People's vote.

[pendragon2] 10/12/2018 07:51

fire/alp - I was thinking of May defeat this week followed by Tory Ministers saying go to Brussels on a salvage trip, or resign now. She is on first plane out.

Then a negotiation,then a second vote in Parliament, no election, no referendum 2.

Labour - in a second vote the party could well split, if Jerricho wants to stay in the EU.

BTW: Merkels annointed successor Ann M Kr-Ka (AKK) is about as left wing as Andrea Leadsome, and she represents the centre of Germany politics. The right are way off the scale.

[jp69] 09/12/2018 22:21

F ftCry chhggytbcyvvtyf

[chestnuts] 09/12/2018 20:37

I have just watched the last 5 minutes of the debate and you know what not one of them came across as if they cared about the country just about there party, a bloody disgrace, and i think the audience agreed, It would be good if the raving looney party had been there as they would have had more gumption in them.

[brucie5] 09/12/2018 19:54

Unbelievable.. that you watch and believe this utter nonsense. Is this really your intellectual engine room? Some poorly educated alt right conspiracy theorist spouting nonsense from her living room about German plots for world domination? Bring back Rees Mogg, all is forgiven.

[mroalan] 09/12/2018 19:31

Lifted from the RUG thread,a good history lesson re the eu.mro.

[zho] 09/12/2018 15:49

Some on here think that John Mauldin is a perma-bear, someone who is always predicting catastrophe. Maybe so, but I always find him interesting reading. This week he is talking about problems in Europe which may "end up being played out in the equity markets all over the world":

"We could see Europe faced with monetary tightening, hard Brexit, an Italian breakdown, popular unrest not just in France but all over, a trade war and a German/Italian bank crisis all at the same time. Again, this is not a far-off possibility. It could all be happening in the next three or four months."

[alphorn] 09/12/2018 14:06

Maybe that is the plan Fireplace - but too late for Tuesday; perhaps for the second vote?

An exciting week.

[fireplace22] 09/12/2018 13:53

Yes thanks Alphorn, can see that now, but if that backstop is removed I personally think it would walk through with everything still to play for in the following negotiations and able to 'walk' if we don't get a satisfactory outcome after 2 years.

[alphorn] 09/12/2018 13:45

fireplace - read it as the eventual vote, Have I misread?
I see defeat this week and then a later vote (at some point).

[fireplace22] 09/12/2018 13:40

Alphorn, PD is suggesting a May victory in the vote(although a bit tongue in cheek).

[alphorn] 09/12/2018 13:33

Pendragon - good post; similar thoughts to my own.

If that were to happen IMO there is plenty of sun to make hay this week. There will be disappointment after the defeat for sterling and the domestic market. Followed at some point by a recovery, with a strong recovery post second vote.

The fly in the ointment may be the extent of the 'nastiness' post the first defeat.

(This does not mean that domestically the UK will be immune from any global events underway). The film 'perfect storm' springs to mind.

[fireplace22] 09/12/2018 12:11

Boris on the Marr show suggested (your option ii) that (after the vote is lost) the EU will be open to renegotiation and if they get the backstop removed, May's proposal would get parliamentary approval. He suggested we withhold half of the settlement cash until an acceptable trade deal, ala Canada can be negotiated. Very compromising for Boris I thought.

Why would Rees Mogg tories abstain?
Tories - on a bus surely not.
Wouldn't they get their nannies to pick the kids up from school?
20% of Labour MP's inviting reselection?

[pendragon2] 09/12/2018 12:02

May is well known for being determinedly single minded. I wouldn't be surprised if her tactic is as follows.

i) Defend the deal up the the point where it is rejected by parliament to put herself beyond criticism in Brussels - look at the hard time they gave me, there was nothing more to be done.

ii) Renegotiate the backstop, then carrying on to re-present the amended deal to Parliament, where Tory MP's with a bit of support from the Pro EU lobby will cheerfully vote it through to avoid an election, leaving Corbyn helpless and UKIP without a leg to stand on and still no MP's at all, nor even MEP's...

The eventual vote:

For: 90% Tories + lib dems, may a DUP renegade

Abstentions: 5% Rees Mogg tories; 20% Blairite labour rump.
Off sick, lost my homework, missed the bus, had to pick up kids from school in Geneva , tied up at Miss Strict's salon for naughty boys - 5% tories.

Against: 80% Labour, SNP,

Result: Majority for May, 2 year transition, next election at end of full term.

[grannyboy] 09/12/2018 09:37

What we need to now see from these third rate politicians, in their efforts to redeem any kind of self respect, is to REJECT Mays brexit beyrayal, and consign Mays 'deal' to the dustbin of history, and then May and her cohorts to follow, if there are still some deluded ones left, that still believe in her betrayal of a deal...

[mount teide] 09/12/2018 03:50

The UK civil service published that 70,000 EU immigrants came to the UK over the last 12 months - this figure is apparently those who came, registered and said they were staying for 12 months or more.

Yet, a totally astonishing 692,000 National Insurance numbers were issued to EU citizens during the same period.

The 692,000 figure is those who came, didn't register other than for an NI number, apparently 'left' within 11 months but then returned straight away.

Guess what May's new way of counting EU immigration is going to be in her still yet to be published "bringing an end to free movement" BRINO stitch-up? Once again she plans to use blatant lying to describe what is a complete non change in the policy - UNCONTROLLED FREE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE EXACTLY AS BEFORE by not counting those that claim they are not staying beyond 12 months!

The UK Government cannot even provide figures for illegal immigrants in the UK who are not detained to the nearest quarter of a million - so much for taking back control!

[mount teide] 09/12/2018 02:04

It's not often Jeremy Paxman writes a column for a National newspaper but, when he does it is always highly insightful and the thoughts of someone with his finger on the pulse of the UK electorate.

"My dog could have won a better Brexit deal than those forelock tugging drones we sent out to battle Brussels" Jeremy Paxman today

'Outside the Palace of Westminster on Thursday I saw the driver of a massive cement lorry wind down his window to bellow in an angry Geordie voice. His target? A rent-a-mob of anti-Brexit demonstrators.

‘It’s about time you learned to respect the decision of the working class!’ he roared.

What can he have made of the farce now engulfing Parliament itself? Or of professional politicians united in their conviction that when it comes to the most momentous decision to face us since the Second World War, they can agree precisely nothing?

The outcome of the 2016 referendum was clear.

By a margin of more than one million votes, the British people said they wanted to leave the EU. Yet more than two years later we are in paralysis, faced with a piece of paper that no one wants – and with seemingly no way forward other than to take the Prime Minister’s Deal.

When Mrs May says it is ‘far from perfect’ she is not exaggerating.

Can you imagine Winston Churchill allowing his negotiators to dance the hokey-cokey with a bunch of foreign bureaucrats and then expecting the British Parliament to agree to a half-in, half-out arrangement which continues EU control until the organisation feels inclined to give it up? And which, by the way, makes it impossible for the UK to strike its own trade deals?

To reflect the current mess, we would have needed a third choice on the referendum ballot paper reading: ‘I don’t like it, but I still want the EU to continue telling us what to do, if they can find some issue like the Irish border with which to be difficult.’

How, you might wonder, could any leader expect her party to acquiesce in an act of national humiliation?

Northern Ireland MP Jim Shannon, representing the fishing port of Portavogie – from the Gaelic ‘Port of the Bogs’ – is one of the worst orators in the House of Commons (a hotly contested title).

But when he told the House ‘I know codswallop when I see it’, he was speaking for many.

‘Codswallop217; is a kind way of describing the piece of paper MPs are being asked to endorse on Tuesday.

If there has been a better example of the failure of Britain’s political class in the last 50 years, I have somehow missed it.

The whole process has been mishandled from the very start, beginning with Cameron’s lazy choice of a yes/no referendum. Serious decisions need careful thought and action.

Then came the business of implementing the wishes of the voters, which was left to the drones of the political class.

Could the negotiations with the Brussels bureaucracy have been worse handled? My dog Derek could have made a better job of them.

We have got used to the Foreign Office selling the country down the river.

What is depressing is that 10 Downing Street might easily have assembled a negotiating team made up of some of the most accomplished business people in the world.

Yet the Government preferred to stick with the familiar collection of forelock tuggers, who opened talks by offering to give Brussels billions. Is it any wonder that we have ended up with a dog’s breakfast?

Then came the refusal to make any preparations for a No Deal exit, the sort of clean break that so many voters wanted, that Europe fears and which would have given us a decent negotiating position.

Was this sheer incompetence or, as many suspect, the deliberate foot-dragging of a Remain-dominated establishment?

Now we are in the throes of a parliamentary process that could fairly be described as contemptible.

The Government held Parliament in such contempt, in fact, that it refused to share the legal advice behind the deal it has managed to achieve. What sort of democracy is that?

Theresa May is now asking MPs to endorse a plan for which no one ever voted. She claims it represents all that was attainable.

What she means is that she was bested by a team of bureaucrats reporting to Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the EU Commission and a man with all the charm of a temperance society cheerleader.

How have we reached such a pathetic state of affairs? Once upon a time, the House of Commons was packed with people who had done something with their lives already, and entered public life to make the world a better place.

Of course, they differed about how to do it, which was why debates were sometimes – hard to imagine, isn’t it? – genuinely thrilling.

The Brexit debate, such as it is, has revealed how low we have sunk since politics became a lifestyle choice for deadbeats whose only achievement has been to strike an attitude as a teenager and not to grow up.

We have had no leadership to speak of. Mrs May’s secret weapon is that in an age of nonentities she is First Among Equals.

Her advisers know that the one thing Conservative MPs fear more than agreeing an appalling deal is a Britain governed by Jeremy Corbyn.

Should she fail to get her agreement through Parliament, what little credibility she has will be gone. And failure, as things stand, seems overwhelmingly likely.

I cannot see how she will avoid a vote of no confidence.

Even Mrs May, however, cannot match the complacency of that nitwit David Cameron, who plunged the country into this chaos in the first place.

Casually leaving the fate of the nation to the result of a referendum was a stupid thing to do, which catapults him into the top three of incompetent prime ministers.

Once upon a time we used to elect leaders who led and then took responsibility for their decisions – rather than retiring to their agreeable Cotswold homes.

That lorry-driver showed the way that Brexit has polarised the nation and the divisions are likely to continue for some time to come.

It is very depressing. If and when Brexit finally happens, there will be many ragingly disappointed people, including many of those who wanted to leave.

Certainly, those who voted ‘whatever happens, it can’t be any worse than what we have now’ will soon discover that leaving the EU is no panacea for the problems that Britain has allowed to fester for generations.

If we are to believe that pliant smoothie-chops Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, and his reading of the tea leaves, Mrs May’s Deal will make some things materially worse.

Yet in the circumstances, there is probably nothing much to be gained by rejecting it. Why send a proven bunch of incompetents back to Brussels to plead for something better? Why on earth would the EU agree such a thing?

The core issue remains what it always was: sovereignty: the question of who governs us, to whom they are accountable, and how we can control them.

Theresa May used to be fond of saying that ‘Brexit means Brexit’. If she seriously thinks she has achieved that, then it is time for the men in white coats to call.

The sole optimistic note is this: however much of a trap the Backstop might seem to be, a sovereign nation can do what it likes.

Parliament can make or unmake any law, including a treaty with the EU. So this is not the end of the story.

But to have any sort of truly happy ending, we need a better calibre of politician than the current sorry lot.'

[grannyboy] 08/12/2018 19:01

Opec have agreed to cut oil production by 1.2 million bpd, at their meeting yesterday.


grannyboy - 23 Nov 2018 - 20:31:39 - 70192 of

Saudi's are planning to cut production by 500,000, with the rest of Opec and Russia making total cuts at around 1.2 mil bpd at the Opec meeting.

[grannyboy] 08/12/2018 17:53

chestnuts...85% of those who voted in Mays disastrous GE last year voted for the two parties that stated in their manifestos that they would carry out the referendum result...BOTH HAVE NOW GONE BACK ON THOSE PROMISES...And there WILL be a price these traitors will be made to pay...

I personally still voted UKIP, because over the years I have seen how those creeps in the establishment parties will totally ignore their electors once they are elected..And I was never swayed to believe May change her spots from a remainer to a brexiter ..And said so repeatedly at the time...

[freddie ferret] 08/12/2018 16:44

Funnily enough MT there have been a large number of political parties created in recent years including several centre right Brexit parties.
They have got nowhere and are not given air time.
It is very difficult to get a new party off the ground and into prominence.

Nigel supported Henry Boltons leadership bid for UKIP and indeed Bolton became leader for a while.
Bolton has set up his own party, you have never heard of it.
Nigel could join it.


The SDP (separate from the liberals) is still running when did you last hear of that.

You do hear about UKIP.
Nigel I believe is history.




Mount Teide

8 Dec '18 - 15:05 - 70335 of 70338
0   2  0



Chestnuts - voted for the constituency Conservative candidate - a Brexit supporting MP who privately despises May.

Recently told him, if May's stitch up Brino 'deal' were to get through parliament i would not vote at the next election - he believes there is likely to be millions of long-standing Tory voters around the country who would do likewise.

85% of MP's currently in Parliament stood on Manifesto's pledging to honour the referendum result and for the UK to leave the Customs Union - it is simply outrageous that most are now covertly working together to do the opposite - i strongly suspect they will get their comeuppance at the next election and, deservedly so.

Would not surprise me if Farage were to launch a new centre right Brexit Party in 2019

[chestnuts] 08/12/2018 15:44

Granny

But we are where we are because the Tories dont want to leave the eu, i dont think any of you brexteers had worked that out, other wise at the last election you would have voted for a party who wanted to leave.

If you go back over my posts you will find it some where about what i thought would happen.

[grannyboy] 08/12/2018 15:32

NO!!! IF there had been a true BREXITER in charge from the Off then we wouldn't be where we are now...we would have been past the initial disruption phase and be doing free trade deals with those markets growing a lot faster than the moribund eu block...By now everyone would be asking what all the fuss and scaremongering from the remainers were ALL about...

[mount teide] 08/12/2018 15:05

Chestnuts - voted for the constituency Conservative candidate - a Brexit supporting MP who privately despises May.

Recently told him, if May's stitch up Brino 'deal' were to get through parliament i would not vote at the next election - he believes there is likely to be millions of long-standing Tory voters around the country who would do likewise.

85% of MP's currently in Parliament stood on Manifesto's pledging to honour the referendum result and for the UK to leave the Customs Union - it is simply outrageous that most are now covertly working together to do the opposite - i strongly suspect they will get their comeuppance at the next election and, deservedly so.

Would not surprise me if Farage were to launch a new centre right Brexit Party in 2019.